After just two weeks into the new reporting period, quarterly tariff-rate quota (TRQ) allocations for October-December 2025 for several steel products have already been exhausted by some suppliers, highlighting robust early demand amid shifting trade policies in the EU and potentially tighter market conditions ahead, Fastmarkets learned on Thursday October 16.
Hot-rolled coil
For hot-rolled coil (HRC), Turkey and Taiwan have used up their allocation for the fourth quarter of 2025 entirely, just two weeks after renewal. South Korean HRC quota was also almost full as of October 15, European Commission customs data show.
Market sources said that European buyers rushed booking for HRC with delivery in the fourth quarter of 2025 in order to get material before the start of 2026, when the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) phases in and imports will be a subject to that carbon tax.
“I booked some [HRC] volumes from Turkey, but I won’t be able to custom clear everything duty-free – the quota is full,” a buyer in Spain told Fastmarkets earlier this week.
Quota utilization at traditional suppliers – Egypt, Vietnam and Japan – was very low [see table below] since these three countries have also been subject to anti-dumping (AD) duty in the EU. Definitive duties against these three suppliers were imposed at the end of September, Fastmarkets reported.
On top of CBAM and existing AD, on October 7, the European Commission also unveiled a proposal for sweeping reform of its steel import safeguards, suggesting cuts in tariff-free quotas by about 47% and imposing a steep 50% ad valorem duty on any volumes beyond the new threshold.
Some sources expressed concern that the new system will already be phased in as of Janaury 1 2026, replacing old safeguards, and this also affected the import purchasing strategies of European buyers. However, most stakeholders familiar with the matter agreed that introducing the new trade regime as early as January 1 was “highly unlikely.”
“It [the new trade regime proposal] has to go through the European Council and Parliament, and country-specific allocations have to be made, and the melt-and-pour clause clarified. It’s not going to be fast,” a European distributor said.
Most sources suggested the new regime will replace old safeguards when they expire on June 30 2026; however, several sources argued that the Commission might opt for early introduction as of April 1.
Meanwhile, uncertainty amid shifting trading frameworks and expected interruption of import trade flows into Europe in the first quarter of 2026 already pushed European steelmakers to increase prices for December-January delivery coil, Fastmarkets reported.
Notably, on October 13, leading European steelmaker ArcelorMittal announced higher offer prices for December (€630 per tonne [$730]) and January (€650 per tonne), ex-works or delivered, depending on the region.
Other mills in Europe were expected to follow the move shortly, according to sources.
“We expected more firm offers to be announced during Blechexpo (steel trade fair in Stuttgart on October 21-24),” a buyer in Belgium told Fastmarkets.
Buyers continued to give estimations of achievable values at €580-600 per tonne for December delivery HRC, resisting the increase.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €589 per tonne on October 15, up by €0.25 per tonne from October 14.
Cold rolled coil and hot-dipped galvanized coil
For downstream flat steel, the situation was even more dramatic, especially for cold-rolled coil (CRC).
Notably, for this product, Turkey and Taiwan have nearly fully exhausted their allocation as of October 15, while Japan and Vietnam have used up over a half of their allocation for October-December.
Besides, on September 18, the European Commission has initiated an anti-dumping (AD) investigation targeting cold-rolled flat steel products originating in India, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey and Vietnam.
The probe affects over half of the EU’s CRC imports. Notably, CRC imports from these five countries together accounted for 56.7% or 1.5 million tonnes of a total 2.7 million tonnes of CRC imports into the bloc in 2023. In 2024, the share was even bigger – 65.2% (1.9 million tonnes) out of a total 3 million tonnes of CRC imports into the EU.
With AD investigation, upcoming CBAM and proposed tighter quotas under new trade regime, industry sources expected the CRC market in Europe to undergo a major change in 2026.
“CRC has always been an import-dominated market. EU mills were not interested in producing CRC for sale – mainly for own HDG production [CRC used as a feedstock for production of hot-dipped galvanized coil], which is a more high-margin product,” a buyer in Italy said. “Many steel-service centers in Europe will have problems sourcing the materials.”
For CRC, ArcelorMittal was looking to get €730 per tonne ex-works for December and 750 per tonne ex-works for January delivery coil, Fastmarkets learned.
Industry sources told Fastmarkets that EU mills had very little CRC availability for 2025 left. Some stakeholders claimed that EU mills were completely sold out for CRC in 2025 already.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel cold-rolled coil, domestic, exw Northern Europe was also €660-670 per tonne on October 14, unchanged week on week.
According to market sources, buyers were still “in denial” and slow end-user demand was also not supportive of price rises, but the majority of stakeholders agreed that domestic CRC prices will go up in the fourth quarter of 2025 and first quarter 2026, owing to reduced availability of imports.
For HDG coil, quota utilization was also pretty intense, with buyers rushing up bookings ahead of CBAM implementation.
European mills pushed offers for HDG for December-January delivery to €730-750 per tonne-works in Northern and Southern Europe.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-dipped galvanized coil, domestic, exw Northern Europe was €670-690 per tonne on Wednesday, widening upward from €670-680 per tonne seven days ago.
Long steel
Unlike in the flat steel segment, news about future new import measures and approaching CBAM have not resulted in any tangible price changes in long steel products in most European regions as yet.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered Northern Europe, narrowed up somewhat to €600-620 per tonne on October 15, from €590-620 per tonne on October 8.
This was mainly due to higher offers from Italian mills to Northern Europe while, within Northern Europe, prices remained stable.
The Italian rebar prices have been the lowest in the region in recent months, which industry sources explain by usage of cheap imported billet as a feedstock as well as pretty high competition.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, ex-works Italy, was €520-550 per tonne on October 15, narrowing up slightly from €510-550 per tonne on October 8.
Lack of demand and pressure from cheap imported material still being available were the key reasons for EU mills to keep prices largely unchanged.
“The long steel market is flooded with import,” a Spanish mill source told Fastmarkets.
“Only China supplied between 145,000 and 170,000 tonnes, depending on the source, as of October 1,” he added.
Turkish and Algerian rebar quotas were fully utilized by October 15, while Egypt has taken up slightly more than 70% of its quota, according to the European Commission’s Customs Data.
The abovementioned mill source also said that additional volumes of Egyptian and Turkish rebar were custom cleared under alternative HS codes, as well as pointing to the fact that Kazakhstan also supplied 50,000 tonnes of rebar to the Czech Republic under alternative codes.
Additionally, Ukrainian material was said to have entered the European market in large volumes this year, affecting local production and prices.
Over the first seven months of 2025, Ukraine supplied 140,978 tonnes of rebar to the EU, versus just 29,842 tonnes over the same period in 2024.
Ukrainian steel suppliers are currently exempted from quota and out-of-quota duties under the current safeguard, and this status is likely to continue when the measures replacing the safeguard come into force.
The EU has extended the suspension of its safeguard measures on Ukrainian steel for three more years on June 6 2025.
Nevertheless, market sources say that the EC can reimpose restrictions on specific steel products from Ukraine if their import volumes become large enough to affect European industry.
Earlier this year, market sources mulled that ArcelorMittal may pass its assets in Poland to the government amid high production and maintenance costs and tough competition with imported material – though the company denied this information in late September when asked by Fastmarkets.
In July of this year, however, the producer announced that it will halve steel output at its Dabrowa Gornicza asset in the south of that country.
