Strong rebound seen as unlikely for European HRC prices due to slow demand

Trading in the European hot-rolled coil market remained quiet on Wednesday June 12, with prices broadly stable despite mills’ attempts to push through small rises, sources told Fastmarkets.

Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €635.21 ($682.69) per tonne on Wednesday, inching down by €0.21 per tonne from €635.42 per tonne the previous day.

The index was up by €2.46 per tonne week on week but down by €4.79 per tonne month on month.

The trading standstill continued in the region, with mainly small volumes traded and buyers largely preferring to stay on the sidelines to monitor the situation.

Overall, European steelmakers had short order books, with July- and August-production tonnages yet to be sold.

Offers in Germany continued to be reported at €640-650 per tonne delivered (€630-640 per tonne ex-works) for August-delivery HRC. Some suppliers could reportedly still offer end-July delivery.

Italy-origin coil was offered to Germany at €650 per tonne delivered, with bids reported at a maximum of €630-640 per tonne delivered. Lead times for Italian coil were around five weeks.

Despite some mills’ attempts to increase prices by €10-20 per tonne, most buyers agreed that a rollover of prices was the most likely scenario due to a lack of real demand.

Earlier this month, the European Commission notified the World Trade Organization that EU import safeguards would be extended for two years and a 15% cap on residual quotas for HRC imposed, which should limit supply of Asian material, which was being offered at competitive prices.

Sources believe this news was the major driver behind European mills’ recent bullish mood.

“The safeguards announcement alone is not enough to drive a [domestic] HRC-price rebound. Real demand is stable at low levels and raw material prices are declining, so the situation for an [HRC] price rise is not the most favorable,” one trader in Germany told Fastmarkets.

A supplier in the Benelux region increased offers by €20 per tonne to €650-660 per tonne ex-works earlier this week, with lead times reportedly in August.

A major European steelmaker remained out of the market on Wednesday and sources said they expect them to come back later this week with higher offers.

Fastmarkets calculated its corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy at €631.88 per tonne on Wednesday, up by €0.63 per tonne from €631.25 per tonne the previous day.

The index was up by €1.25 per tonne week on week but down by €5.20 per tonne month on month.

The Italian market was also quiet, with suppliers reportedly accepting rollover prices for August-delivery coil.

An integrated mill in the country was heard offering July/August-delivery HRC at €650 per tonne delivered, which nets back to €635-640 per tonne ex-works.

Buyer estimates of achievable prices were mainly reported at €620-630 per tonne ex-works on Wednesday.

In the secondary market, 3-6mm HR sheet was still heard traded within the range of €710-730 per tonne CPT, remaining fairly stable over the past seven days.

The market for overseas coil remained quiet, with most suppliers holding back while they wait for the official confirmation of the new safeguards.

In the past week, offers of Turkish HRC for end-July shipment were reported at €610-630 per tonne CFR, including the anti-dumping duty.

From Saudi Arabia, two sources reported an offer around $635 per tonne CFR to Antwerp.

Published by: Julia Bolotova

fastmarkets.com