French tube maker Vallourec forecasts higher H2 2025 shipments, EBITDA
France’s Vallourec expects international tube shipments to increase in the second half of 2025 compared to H1 2025 on strong bookings over recent months, it said in its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings call on Feb. 27.
The company forecasts EBITDA per metric ton to further improve in H2 2025 compared to H1 2025 on higher international prices and triggered by the US market price improvements and cost savings.
In the Mine and Forest unit, production sold is expected to be around 6 million mt of iron ore with the profitability determined by prevailing iron ore market prices.
“Our bookings in both the US and international markets ended 2024 on a high note, evidence of the strong global demand for premium tubular solutions,” CEO Philippe Guillemot said.
“We have seen a steady improvement in US pricing over the past several months, which will begin to manifest in our first quarter results … While we are still analyzing the full impact of recent changes in US trade policy, we believe on the whole they will support further upside in the US market,” Guillemot added.
Vallourec sold 362,000 mt of tubes in Q4, down 8.3% quarter over quarter and 5.5% year over year. Sales fell 16% year over year to 1.29 million mt of tubes for 2024, weighed by the closure of the Germany still mill and lower volumes sold in North America.
Tubes EBITDA fell from Eur1.05 billion ($1.36 billion) in 2023 to Eur777 million in 2024, due to lower profitability in North America despite higher market pricing in the rest of the world and the benefits of a restructuring plan.
In Q4, iron ore production was at 1.3 million mt, stable quarter over quarter but down 24% year over year. Full-year production dropped 22% year over year to 5.4 million mt, while Mine & Forest EBITDA fell to Eur108 million from Eur180 million on lower sales volumes and realized prices, and higher costs.
The bottom line was still better than the guidance set by Vallourec, benefiting from higher-than-expected iron ore prices and production sold in the final quarter.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the 62% Fe Iron Ore Index at $105.85/dmt CFR North China on Feb. 27, down $1/dmt from Feb. 26, in line with Newman High Grade Fines trade and tradable values.
According to Platts, iron ore prices in 2024 moved from $143.2/dmt CFR North China on Jan. 2 to $100/dmt CFR North China on Dec. 31.
