Trade shows signs of rebound from COVID-19, recovery still uncertain

World trade shows signs of bouncing back from a deep, COVID-19 induced slump, but World Trade Organization economists caution that any recovery could be disrupted by the ongoing pandemic effects.

The WTO now forecasts a 9.2% decline in the volume of world merchandise trade for 2020, followed by a 7.2% rise in 2021 (Chart 1). These estimates are subject to an unusually high degree of uncertainty since they depend on the evolution of the pandemic and government responses to it.

Current data suggests a projected decline for the current year that is less severe than the 12.9% drop foreseen under the more optimistic of two scenarios outlined in the WTO’s April trade forecast. Strong trade performance in June and July have brought some signs of optimism for overall trade growth in 2020. Trade growth in COVID-19 related products was particularly strong in these months, showing trade’s ability to help governments obtain needed supplies. Conversely, the forecast for next year is more pessimistic than the previous estimate of 21.3% growth, leaving merchandise trade well below its pre-pandemic trend in 2021 (Chart 1).

The performance of trade for the year to date exceeded expectations due to a surge in June and July as lockdowns were eased and economic activity accelerated. The pace of expansion could slow sharply once pent up demand is exhausted and business inventories have been replenished. More negative outcomes are possible if there is a resurgence of COVID‑19 in the fourth quarter.

In contrast to trade, GDP fell more than expected in the first half of 2020, causing forecasts for the year to be downgraded. Consensus estimates now put the decline in world market-weighted GDP in 2020 at -4.8% compared to ‑2.5% under the more optimistic scenario outlined in the WTO’s April forecast. GDP growth is expected to pick up to 4.9% in 2021, but this is highly dependent on policy measures and on the severity of the disease (Table 1).

Chart 1 – World merchandise trade volume, 2000‑2021

Source:   WTO Secretariat.
Note:       Figures for 2020 and 2021 are projections.

As previously noted in the forecast update of 22 June, a weak trade recovery that fails to return trade to the pre-pandemic trend was a distinct possibility. This would result in merchandise trade growth of around 5% next year, rather than 20% in the case of a rapid return to the previous trajectory. The current trade forecast of 7.2% for 2021 appears to be closer to the “weak recovery” scenario than to a “quick return to trend”.

Although the trade decline during the COVID-19 pandemic is similar in magnitude to the global financial crisis of 2008-09, the economic context is very different. The contraction in GDP has been much stronger in the current recession while the fall in trade has been more moderate. As a result, the volume of world merchandise trade is only expected to decline around twice as much as world GDP at market exchange rates, rather than six times as much during the 2009 collapse.

This divergent performance of trade during the COVID-19 outbreak has much to do with the nature of the pandemic and the policies used to combat it. Lockdowns and travel restrictions imposed significant supply-side constraints on national economies, drastically reducing output and employment in sectors that are usually resistant to business cycle fluctuations, particularly non-traded services. At the same time, robust monetary and fiscal policies have propped up incomes, allowing consumption and imports to rebound once lockdowns were eased.

Whether the recovery can be sustained over the medium term will depend on the strength of investment and employment. Both could be undermined if confidence is dented by new outbreaks of COVID-19, which might force governments to impose additional lockdowns. As a result, risks to the forecast are firmly on the downside. There is some limited upside potential if a vaccine or other medical treatments prove to be effective, but their impact would be less immediate.

Ballooning public debt could also weigh on trade and GDP growth over the longer term. Although rich countries are unlikely to face sovereign debt crises as a result of fiscal expansion, poorer ones may find their increased debt burdens extremely onerous. Deficit spending could also influence trade balances, reducing national saving and swelling trade deficits in some countries.

“The incidence of COVID-19 worldwide has fallen from its peak in the spring, but it remains stubbornly high in many areas. Trade has played a critical role in responding to the pandemic, allowing countries to secure access to vital food and medical supplies. Trade has also facilitated new ways of working during the crisis through the provision of traded IT products and services. One of the greatest risks for the global economy in the aftermath of the pandemic would be a descent into protectionism. International cooperation is essential as we move forward, and the WTO is the ideal forum to resolve any outstanding trade issues stemming from the crisis,” Deputy Director-General Yi Xiaozhun said.

Table 1: Merchandise trade volume and real GDP, 2015-2021^a

a             Figures for 2020 and 2021 are projections.
b             Average of exports and imports.
c             Other regions comprise Africa, Middle East and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including associate and former member States.
Source:   WTO Secretariat for trade, consensus estimates for GDP

As Table 1 shows, all regions are expected to see big percentage increases in export and import volumes in 2021, but it should be noted that this growth will be off of a reduced base. Thus, even large percentage changes may not translate into better material conditions. For example, imports into Asia and South America are both expected to grow by 6.2% and 6.5% respectively next year, but Asia’s rise would follow on a modest 4.4% decline this year while South America’s would be on top of a steep 13.5% plunge in 2020. In this case Asia’s imports would have substantially recovered while South America’s trade would still be deeply depressed.

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