European steel hot-rolled coil producers were heard to be mulling a new round of price increases on Friday October 10, while market participants continue to absorb news about proposed trade measures.
Producers in Europe are expected to increase their offer prices for January-delivery HRC, several sources told Fastmarkets on Friday.
Sources said that many European producers had withdrawn their offers this week while awaiting the announcement of new trade measures.
The European Commission on Tuesday unveiled a proposal for sweeping reform of its steel import safeguards, suggesting cuts in tariff-free quotas by about 47% and imposing a steep 50% ad valorem duty on any volumes beyond the new threshold.
“Even though this [the tougher trade measures] was expected, and lobbied by European steelmakers associations, it still came as a shock since it is expected to eliminate half of steel imports to the bloc. It might have catastrophic consequences for manufacturing industry in the EU,” a distributor said.
The timeline for the implementation of the new measures is still not 100% clear, however.
But the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will be phased in from January 1, 2026, which will make importing steel “very challenging, especially amid lack of clarity on benchmarks and default values,” a trading source said.
“At the end of the day, you have no clue what the final import price will be,” a buyer in Italy said.
Amid this uncertainty and mounting risks of importing material, sources said they expect local buyers to source greater quantities of HRC from domestic mills.
“We expect European mills to use this opportunity to increase domestic [HRC] prices. But for January delivery – when at least CBAM has been phased in and we have fewer imports. In my opinion, increasing prices for December-delivery HRC is not really possible since demand is still not there,” a German buyer said.
Several sources said they expect European mills to announce new offers for January-delivery HRC either next week or during the Blechexpo steel trade fair in Stuttgart over October 21-24. Buyers and sellers suggested a possible range of €630-650 ($729-752) per tonne ex-works for offers.
“We expect [offers] around €650 per tonne ex-works for HRC, €750 per tonne ex-works for cold-rolled coil (CRC) and €780 per tonne ex-works for galvanized coil (HDG),” a second buyer in Germany said.
One supplier source that spoke to Fastmarkets voiced a price idea for January-delivery HRC of €630-650 per tonne ex-works, but stressed that it was not an official offer yet.
It remains to be seen whether suppliers make offers at such levels.
For November/December-delivery HRC, transactions have been reported at €570-580 per tonne ex-works in Germany and the Benelux area.
Overall trading in the spot market remains subdued amid a persisting lack of clarity on trade regulations and continued muted demand from end users, but following the European Commission’s proposal on Tuesday, steel producers have reported an increased amount of inquiries for January-delivery coil.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe was €577.50 per tonne on Friday, unchanged from the day before.
The Northern European index was up by €2.50 per tonne week on week but down by €5.63 per tonne month on month.
At the same time, the Italian HRC market was completely quiet, with local mills currently not offering, according to sources.
“Italian suppliers [of HRC] withdrew from the market, we expect them to come back with new offers next week,” a local distributor said.
The most recent estimations of tradeable values of HRC in the nation were reported at €540-550 per tonne ex-works – in line with transactions for November/December-delivery coil. But new offers were expected to be “above €600 per tonne ex-works, following “new trade measures enthusiasm,” another local source said.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €545.00 per tonne on Friday, unchanged from the previous day.
The Italian index was down by €3.75 per tonne week on week and by €3.50 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, the market for imported coil was also said to be completely quiet this past week.
“I don’t have a single import offer on my table – neither for HRC, not for CRC or HDG,” a second buyer in Italy said.
