In September, US light-vehicle sales dropped 11.2% to 1.19 million units compared with the same month last year, when sales during the Labor Day holiday weekend were counted in September’s volumes, rather than in August’s volumes as this year, S&P Global Mobility said. Year-to-date sales stood at 11.81 million units, up 1% on the year, according to S&P Global’s data as US new vehicle sales were stuck in neutral. S&P Global’s September light-vehicle sales forecast showed sales at 15.89 million units in 2024, a 1.8% improvement over 2023.
US Car sales – seasonally adjusted (million units)
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| Jan | 17.1 | 18.1 | 17.7 | 17.5 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 15.6 | 15.6 | 15.5 |
| Feb | 16.8 | 17.9 | 17.7 | 17.6 | 17.1 | 17.2 | 16.4 | 14.2 | 15.4 | 16.2 |
| Mar | 17.9 | 17.2 | 17.1 | 17.7 | 17.8 | 11.8 | 18.2 | 14.0 | 15.4 | 16.2 |
| Apr | 17.4 | 17.9 | 17.4 | 17.8 | 17.2 | 9.0 | 18.8 | 14.7 | 16.2 | 16.6 |
| May | 18.1 | 17.6 | 17.1 | 17.7 | 17.9 | 12.4 | 17.4 | 13.0 | 16.1 | 16.4 |
| Jun | 17.8 | 17.4 | 17.0 | 17.7 | 17.7 | 13.4 | 15.9 | 13.5 | 16.6 | 15.5 |
| Jul | 18.0 | 18.1 | 17.1 | 17.4 | 17.5 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 13.8 | 16.4 | 16.4 |
| Aug | 18.2 | 17.5 | 16.5 | 17.3 | 17.6 | 15.7 | 13.5 | 13.7 | 15.8 | 15.8 |
| Sep | 18.4 | 18.0 | 18.9 | 17.8 | 17.6 | 16.7 | 12.7 | 14.2 | 16.2 | 16.3 |
| Oct | 18.4 | 18.2 | 18.4 | 18.1 | 17.3 | 16.9 | 13.7 | 15.2 | 15.8 | |
| Nov | 18.4 | 17.9 | 17.9 | 17.8 | 17.4 | 16.3 | 13.5 | 14.8 | 15.9 | |
| Dec | 17.6 | 18.4 | 18.2 | 17.9 | 17.3 | 16.8 | 13.2 | 14.0 | 16.4 |
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
US Sep housing starts slip 0.5%
US housing starts in September totaled 1.35 million, sliding 0.5% from the revised 1.36 million starts in August and 0.7% from September 2023, Census Bureau data showed. In the wake of long-awaited interest rate cuts announced Sept. 18, there appeared to be no immediate improvement in construction activity, with all metrics seeing decreases on a monthly and yearly basis. This easing of activity came in line with market expectations.
Nippon Steel’s takeover bid beneficial: US Steel
Nippon Steel’s plan to upgrade US Steel’s Mon Valley Works steel plant in Pennsylvania would result in nearly 5,000 jobs and $38 million in tax revenues, according to an analysis of the $1 billion proposal released by US Steel. Nippon Steel will invest approximately $1 billion to upgrade and improve the overall operations at Mon Valley Works as part of its pending acquisition of US Steel, the economic impact analysis said Oct. 1.
Mexican auto sales post first on-year drop in 29 months
In September, Mexico’s light-vehicle sales showed the first year-over-year decline in 29 months, falling 1.4% to 116,543 units, data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografia: Inegi) showed. However, Mexican light-vehicle production improved 11.7% to 378,583 units and exports increased 4.8% year over year to 315,706 units. In the year to date (January to September), all metrics improved, S&P Global Mobility said.
Europe
EU car registrations fall in Sep
The European Union passenger car market had another slow month in line with recent results in September, with a 6.1% year-over-year decline in registrations to 809,163 units, data from the European Automobile Manufacturer’s Association (ACEA) showed. S&P Global Mobility said the result left the overall tally for the first three quarters of the year still just in positive territory, up 0.6% year over year at 7,989,766 units. Three of the bloc’s four major markets recorded significant declines with France posting an 11.1% year-over-year decline in September, Italy down 10.7% year over year fall and Germany slumping by 7%. Only Spain witnessed something of a rally, with a 6.3% year-over-year rise.
EU passenger car registrations (units)
| Sep-24 | Y-o-Y % change | YTD | Y-o-Y % change | |
| Germany | 208,848 | -7.0 | 2,116,074 | -1.0 |
| France | 139,002 | -11.1 | 1,265,902 | -1.8 |
| Italy | 121,725 | -10.7 | 1,202,447 | +2.1 |
| Spain | 73,144 | +6.3 | 744,698 | +4.7 |
| EU Total | 809,163 | -6.1 | 7,989,776 | +0.6 |
| Note: EU refers to a new composition with 27 member states (excluding the UK). | ||||
Source: ACEA
EU construction shows mixed results in Sep
Seasonally adjusted production in construction in the EU edged up by 0.4% in August on the month but fell 2.4% on the year, first estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the EU, showed. Eurostat said that among member states for which data was available, the highest monthly increases in production in construction were recorded in Sweden (+7.2%), the Netherlands (+6.3%) and Romania (+4.7%). The largest decreases were observed in Slovakia (-4.3%), Belgium (-3.2%) and Slovenia (-3.1%).
Global 2024 demand will fall further: World Steel
The World Steel Association forecasted that 2024 global steel demand will drop further by 0.9% to 1.751 billion metric tons, with an expected rebound of 1.2% in 2025 to reach 1.772 billion metric tons, the Brussels-based body said in its short-range outlook. It cited key economic factors such as declining household purchasing power and geopolitical uncertainties. Regionally, China anticipates a 3% drop in 2024 demand and a further 1% in 2025.
Asia
Chinese steel exports at highest since 2016
China’s finished steel exports in September reached a new high not seen since July 2016, totaling 10.153 million mt, up 25.9% year over year, according to China Customs data. Although steel exports are expected to retreat over the next three months, market participants said China’s annual steel exports are likely to breach the 100 million mt mark this year for the first time since 2016. Steel exports in September also increased by 6.9% from August, up for the second consecutive month. Over January-September, China’s finished steel exports rose 21.2%, or 14.106 million mt, from a year earlier to 80.711 million mt.
| China monthly home sales – 70 medium and large cities | ||
| Rose | Fell | |
| Apr-21 | 62 | 5 |
| May-21 | 62 | 5 |
| Jun-21 | 55 | 12 |
| Jul-21 | 51 | 16 |
| Aug-21 | 46 | 20 |
| Sep-21 | 27 | 36 |
| Oct-21 | 13 | 52 |
| Nov-21 | 9 | 59 |
| Dec-21 | 15 | 50 |
| Jan-22 | 28 | 39 |
| Feb-22 | 27 | 40 |
| Mar-22 | 29 | 38 |
| Apr-22 | 18 | 47 |
| May-22 | 25 | 43 |
| Jun-22 | 31 | 38 |
| Jul-22 | 30 | 40 |
| Aug-22 | 19 | 50 |
| Sep-22 | 15 | 54 |
| Oct-22 | 10 | 58 |
| Nov-22 | 16 | 51 |
| Dec-22 | 55 | 15 |
| Jan-23 | 36 | 33 |
| Feb-23 | 55 | 13 |
| Mar-23 | 64 | 5 |
| Apr-23 | 62 | 7 |
| May-23 | 46 | 24 |
| Jun-23 | 31 | 38 |
| Jul-23 | 20 | 49 |
| Aug-23 | 17 | 52 |
| Sep-23 | 15 | 54 |
| Oct-23 | 11 | 56 |
| Nov-23 | 9 | 59 |
| Dec-23 | 7 | 62 |
| Jan-24 | 11 | 56 |
| Feb-24 | 8 | 59 |
| Mar-24 | 11 | 57 |
| Apr-24 | 6 | 64 |
| May-24 | 2 | 68 |
| Jun-24 | 4 | 64 |
| Jul-24 | 2 | 66 |
| Aug-24 | 2 | 67 |
| Sep-24 | 3 | 66 |
| Source: NBS | ||
Auto sales in China up 2% on year for Sep
In China, domestic passenger car retail sales increased 8% on the month and 2% higher on the year to 2.063 million units in September, China Passenger Car Association data showed. Car sales rebounded to surpass the year-ago level after posting a year-on-year decline for the past five months. The CPCA attributed it to government subsidies for consumer goods trade-ins. Over January-September, passenger car retail sales increased 2% on the year at 15.529 million units, but the growth rate slowed from 3.3% in the first half of 2024.
| China vehicle output and sales (million units) | ||||
| Sep-24 | Y-o-Y % change | YTD | Y-o-Y % change | |
| Passenger car output | 2.50 | 0.24 | 18.64 | 2.61 |
| Passenger car sales | 2.53 | 1.53 | 18.68 | 3.03 |
| Commercial vehicle output | 0.29 | -16.95 | 2.83 | -2.75 |
| Commercial vehicle sales | 0.28 | -23.45 | 2.89 | -1.59 |
| Source: CAAM | ||||
South Korean vehicle output drops 4% YOY Jan-Sep
South Korea’s vehicle production fell 3.8% year on year to 3.04 million units over January-September, data from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy showed Oct. 17, impacting demand for automotive steel. The lower output came amid an 8.1% year-on-year drop in domestic vehicle sales to 1.19 million units in the first nine months of 2024. Vehicle exports over the first three quarters of the year inched 0.7% higher year on year to 2.06 million units.
Japanese Jan-Sep crude steel output falls 3% on year
Japan’s crude steel production over January-September fell 3.2% year on year to 63.29 million mt, data from The Japan Iron and Steel Federation showed, amid weak demand from the construction sector and the manufacturing sector. The nine-month tally was summed up after September’s crude steel output dropped 5.8% on the year to 6.62 million mt, marking seven straight months of year-on-year declines. Downstream, production of hot-rolled steel products over the first nine months of 2024 was down 3.9% on the year at 55.82 million mt. September’s output of the same product was 6% lower from a year ago at 5.97 million mt, marking seven straight months of decline.
Japan’s manufacturing sector slumps in Sep
Japan’s manufacturing sector contracted for a third straight month in September as the au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index compiled by S&P Global Commodity Insights narrowed to 49.7 from 49.8 in August, putting pressure on steel demand. “The latest PMI results for Japan revealed muted trends across the manufacturing industry, with output and new orders now both in contraction territory,” Usamah Bhatti, an economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said.
Japan’s METI projects bearish Q4
Japan’s demand for steel is expected to fall by 2.1% year over year to 19.31 million mt over October-December, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry projected. The construction sector and the manufacturing sector, excluding the automobile sector, are expected to remain sluggish and act as downward pressure on demand, the ministry said, affecting domestic steel demand. Both the civil engineering and construction sectors are expected to be sluggish in the final quarter of 2024 amid labor shortages and high costs, it said. Demand for construction steel is projected to dip 0.8% over Q4 2024 to 4.11 million mt.
| Japan car production, sales and exports (units) | |||
| Production | Sales | Exports | |
| Apr-21 | 721,363 | 349,894 | 355,659 |
| May-21 | 502,828 | 319,318 | 267,079 |
| Jun-21 | 737,420 | 365,631 | 360,669 |
| Jul-21 | 730,430 | 377,448 | 374,889 |
| Aug-21 | 480,613 | 319,697 | 252,154 |
| Sep-21 | 430,593 | 318,371 | 200,025 |
| Oct-21 | 515,250 | 279,341 | 246,189 |
| Nov-21 | 756,625 | 352,455 | 342,078 |
| Dec-21 | 710,070 | 336,442 | 381,925 |
| Jan-22 | 546,951 | 329,699 | 269,439 |
| Feb-22 | 693,704 | 354,668 | 312,462 |
| Mar-22 | 719,354 | 512,862 | 321,457 |
| Apr-22 | 584,420 | 299,620 | 314,263 |
| May-22 | 420,233 | 261,433 | 206,566 |
| Jun-22 | 668,628 | 327,896 | 308,462 |
| Jul-22 | 699,708 | 349,335 | 356,957 |
| Aug-22 | 584,291 | 290,042 | 293,765 |
| Sep-22 | 757,790 | 395,163 | 369,095 |
| Oct-22 | 694,157 | 359,159 | 331,958 |
| Nov-22 | 767,241 | 377,079 | 371,870 |
| Dec-22 | 699,025 | 344,364 | 356,975 |
| Jan-23 | 620,474 | 382,338 | 256,178 |
| Feb-23 | 738,730 | 426,726 | 313,203 |
| Mar-23 | 866,260 | 572,494 | 384,804 |
| Apr-23 | 711,508 | 349,592 | 363,639 |
| May-23 | 623,531 | 326,731 | 296,960 |
| Jun-23 | 763,470 | 392,719 | 408,641 |
| Jul-23 | 778,244 | 379,052 | 396,705 |
| Aug-23 | 639,383 | 340,341 | 354,697 |
| Sep-23 | 840,648 | 437,493 | 411,833 |
| Oct-23 | 818,358 | 397,672 | 403,899 |
| Nov-23 | 857,001 | 411,089 | 399,591 |
| Dec-23 | 741,457 | 362,839 | 432,532 |
| Jan-24 | 578,126 | 334,876 | 295,133 |
| Feb-24 | 616,763 | 344,820 | 350,166 |
| Mar-24 | 710,389 | 451,444 | 348,539 |
| Apr-24 | 646,404 | 310,345 | 365,106 |
| May-24 | 651,285 | 312,406 | 295,741 |
| Jun-24 | 691,286 | 373,599 | 362,975 |
| Jul-24 | 804,080 | 405,175 | 378,591 |
| Aug-24 | — | 328,471 | 294,158 |
| Sep-24 | 438,733 | — | |
| Source: Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association | |||
Nippon Steel to transfer NS Kote if US Steel deal succeeds
Japan’s Nippon Steel Corp plans to transfer its wholly-owned subsidiary NS Kote Inc to ArcelorMittal when its planned $14 billion purchase of US Steel (United States Steel Corp) is concluded, the Japanese steel major said. NS Kote holds Nippon Steel’s entire equity interest in AM/NS Calvert LLC, a 50:50 joint venture between the Japanese steelmaker and ArcelorMittal’s wholly owned unit ArcelorMittal Calvert LLC.
Nippon Steel seeks govt aid for EAF conversion
In other news, Nippon Steel Corp. is seeking government incentives to support the conversion from blast furnace to electric arc furnace steelmaking. Nippon Steel said it and Nippon Steel Stainless Steel Corp. had decided to apply for the “Energy and Manufacturing Process Transformation Support Business (Business I (Steel))” based on the “Green Transformation (GX) Promotion Act.” The Japanese steelmaker aims to be carbon neutral in 2050 by using three technologies: hydrogen injection into BFs, hydrogen direct reduction of iron, and high-grade steel production in a large-sized EAF.
Indian Sep crude steel output up 1% on year
India produced 11.88 million mt of crude steel in September, up 1.2% year-over-year, according to provisional data from the Joint Plant Committee. This nearly matched a 1.4% year over year rise in downstream finished steel production to 11.67 million mt. Amid the higher outputs, finished steel consumption stood at 12.29 million mt in September, up 10.54% from the year before. Indian imports of finished steel surged 78.1% from September 2023 to about 985,000 mt, while weaker overseas demand reduced exports by 7.9% to about 396,000 mt.
BHP, SAIL to decarbonize steelmaking
State-owned Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) and Australia’s BHP have signed a memorandum of understanding to decarbonize steelmaking processes in India, the two companies said. “This collaboration is an important step for SAIL and BHP in promoting lower carbon steelmaking technology pathways for the blast furnace route in India,” they said. Both companies are “already exploring a number of workstreams supporting the potential decarbonization at SAIL’s integrated steel plants which operate blast furnaces (BF) with an initial study to assess various strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG),” they said.
JFE, JSW Steel buy Thyssenkrupp’s electrical steel unit in India
Japan’s JFE Steel and India’s JSW Steel have acquired Thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel India Pte Ltd for Eur440 million ($477.62 million) from German industrial conglomerate Thyssenkrupp, the companies said. Thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel operates a 50,000 mt/year plant in Nashik, Maharashtra, which manufactures and supplies electrical steel sheets. The acquisition gives JFE Steel and JSW Steel an earlier-than-expected entry into Indian market. Both steelmakers are building a grain-oriented electrical steel sheet plant in Bellary district, Karnataka, India, with full production slated for 2027.
Greensteel Australia to run “green” rebar mill 2026
Greensteel Australia plans to start up a 600,000-mt/year hydrogen-powered rebar rolling mill in New South Wales by late 2026 in partnership with Italy-based steelmaking technology provider Danieli. The mill will use a reheating furnace powered by 100% green hydrogen and will be capable of producing rebar in diameters ranging from 10 to 50 mm and spooled coils from 8 to 32 mm, primarily for the Australian construction market.
