The decline reflects slowed output across major markets, though some regions bucked the trend with growth, according to the association’s latest data published on Tuesday March 25.
Big drops in China, Japan, and the United States
China, the world’s largest steel producer, saw its output fall by 3.3% year on year to 78.9 million tonnes in February, with the country’s struggling real estate sector still weighing on domestic steel demand.
But while new housing starts were down by 29.6% year on year in January-February, infrastructure investment (excluding utilities) and the supply industries, as well as automotive output, rose in the same period by 5.6% and 13.9% year on year respectively.
Despite a drop in crude steel production since the start of the year, there was no significant movement in prices because the decline was in line with market expectations.
China’s steel export market may also suffer from additional US tariffs, with Chinese exporters reportedly exploring alternative markets in the Middle East, Africa, and South America.
Japan recorded an even sharper year-on-year drop in output last month, declining by 8.5% to 6.4 million tonnes, while the country’s steel market has struggled with falling exports, rising competitive imports and a weakened domestic economy.
The market is also now facing US tariffs, though Japan is seeking exemptions because its steelmaking sector relies heavily on exports.
Such measures could impact steel production considerably, with Tadashi Imai, chairman of Japan’s Iron and Steel Federation, warning that US tariff measures could lead to the country’s lowest steel output levels in 50 years.
The US had already imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports in March and is considering additional tariffs on automobiles in April.
The US also reported a decrease, with crude steel output falling by 7.0% to 6.0 million tonnes.
Steep declines in Germany, Iran, and Russia
Germany reported a sharp decline, with a 13.5% drop to 2.7 million tonnes, amid weak demand and economic challenges in the country and the European Union.
Iran saw an even steeper collapse, with production plummeting by 21.8% to 1.7 million tonnes. In February, export markets for semi-finished products in the West Asian country have remained slow since late January due to weak demand and price uncertainty.
Later in the month, cold weather and a shortage of gas and electricity supplies further affected Iran’s steel sector.
Russia’s estimated output fell by 3.4% to 5.8 million tonnes in February 2025 compared to February 2024.
India and Brazil report gains
India was the standout performer in crude steel production in February, increasing output by 6.3% year on year to 12.7 million tonnes.
Brazil saw only a minor decline of 1.6% in February but posted a small 0.9% increase in crude steel production for the January-February period.
South Korea recorded a modest increase of 0.7% year on year in February, though overall output for the first two months of the year declined by 2.8%.
Africa’s growth stands out
One of the few bright spots was Africa, where production grew by 7.6% to 1.9 million tonnes in February compared to the same period last year, though the region remains a small player in the global steel market. This sharp rise contrasts with a milder 1.7% growth in the January-February period, suggesting a possible short-term boost rather than sustained growth.
Regional trends in crude steel production
Regional trends mirrored these national shifts in February 2025 compared to February 2024.
Asia and Oceania, which includes China, India, and Japan, saw output fall by 2.6% to 107.3 million tonnes.
The European Union’s production dropped 7.1%, while non-EU European countries, including Türkiye and the UK, saw an even larger decline of 9.7%.
The Middle East recorded the biggest regional contraction at 11.5%, primarily due to Iran’s sharp decline.
North America’s output dropped 6.3%, led by weakness in the US market.
Russia and other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, including Ukraine, reported a smaller drop of 1.9%, while South America registered a 3.2% decline in output.
Although Brazil showed resilience with its minor year-on-year decline, South America’s output fell, with the region’s crude steel production down by 3.2% in February and 2.5% over the January-February period.
