IREPAS Short Range Outlook: September 2025
Mills struggle to make ends meet in global longs market amid severe competition
Demand is very weak and the situation remains difficult in the global long steel products market. Mills are cutting production, protectionist measures are continuing full speed ahead, while China and other countries in the region are exporting a lot, putting pressure on prices. There is very severe competition in the market and every producer is fighting with its last penny in order to keep operating. Imports displaced by US tariffs are searching for homes, causing worldwide disruptions and any demand is contested by multiple origins.
Demand may show some improvement after the holiday season
The holiday season is over and we may observe relatively better demand in the coming months. For the last few weeks, a small price increase has been seen in Chinese domestic market, which has had a positive impact but further developments in China need to be observed. Anticipated interest rate cuts may also create a positive atmosphere in the global longs market. The price of scrap has moved sideways and the main problem is that mills are operating with no profits due to low capacity-utilization, which creates real damage for the future.
Imports still flood into Europe, summer production halts may support market balance
Imports continue to flood into Europe and demand there is weak. However, with European mills cutting production over the summer there is at least a chance of some balance returning to the market in the fourth quarter of the year. Whether this leads to a real turnaround remains to be seen. German domestic prices dropped substantially from June to August but now mills are trying to push prices back up again and recover some lost ground. Activity is still very slow, but the expectation is that September will be a better month.
Court appeals against Trump’s tariffs create further uncertainty
US President Trump has now had five of his tariff rulings challenged by courts of appeals. This will throw the market into uncertainty, more than before. It may take at least six months to have the appeals go through the court system all the way to the Supreme Court.
Domestic supply meets most demand in US longs market, prices soften a little
In the US, demand is very soft. With little to no imports, domestic supply seems to be meeting demand, which is why prices have not moved up even with the 50 percent duty on imports. On the contrary, most prices are moving down a little each week. Capacity utilization is still under 80 percent despite six months of “tariff protection”. More capacity is coming online, which means that the capacity utilization percentage will probably move down further. The market seems to be waiting for interest rate cuts. If the cut is just 0.25 percent, it will not be enough to stimulate the economy. Most stockists expect a reduction or a change in import duties, which is why they prefer to wait, instead of importing now in order to restock.
Current market is unstable and unpredictable, with an unsatisfactory outlook
Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable. Prices are within long-term trends, but market fundamentals and economic policies are unpredictable. The outlook of the market for the next quarter is also unstable and unsatisfactory, with weak demand and policy uncertainty pointing to continued weakness of the market.
Italian coil market starts slow after August break
The Italian coil market remains subdued following the summer holiday, with virtually no contracts concluded since the sector resumed activity this week, Kallanish reports.
During July, all hot rolled coil buyers in Italy and Spain purchased large volumes from Asia, particularly Indonesia, at €450-470/tonne cfr ($527-550/t). Southern European buyers also continued sourcing from Turkey and North African producers through late July and into August, at €460-515/t cfr duty paid.
Turkish mills reportedly sold large volumes to Italy and Spain over the summer, filling their order books. By late July and early August, they had raised prices, quoting from €500/t cfr and above.
Currently, with Turkey’s third-quarter EU HRC quota exhausted, service centres are largely refraining from imports, apart from selective purchases of Asian cold rolled coil at competitive prices.
European prices are expected to rise in the coming weeks, driven by the impact of CBAM and the safeguard replacement, the latter of which the European Commission could implement earlier than July 2026. “Prices will increase in Europe, but slowly and painfully,” a trader notes. Large volumes of material are currently arriving and will continue to arrive at ports, likely causing congestion in the near future.
European producers are likely to need to sell, but major buyers are not expected to purchase, having already sourced from the import market over the summer. As a result, they will largely be absent from the EU market in September.
Multiple service centres tell Kallanish they also do not plan to buy for at least the next three weeks. One source says he may refrain from purchasing until the end of October, while another expects only minimal purchases to fill small stock gaps. Overall, buyers anticipate that European producers will receive only low-volume orders throughout September and October.
Prices in Europe are still expected to rise. Two sources anticipate levels reaching around €600/t by early October. A major service centre, however, notes that much will depend on CBAM costs and Asian mills’ pricing. European producers should not push prices too high, he believes, as creating a large gap with import levels could dampen demand.
While the Italian market was even quieter than is typical in August, some transactions took place in northern Europe. “Europe has been Italianising for the past few years. August has become a holiday period across the continent, resulting in very few transactions everywhere,” a northern European trader comments.
In Italy, prices have only increased slightly compared with the beginning of August, by around €10/t, below producers’ target levels. Domestic HRC is at about €540/t delivered, and up to €570/t delivered in northern Europe, according to sources. Buyers in Italy are expected to return to the European market in October or November to secure volumes for year-end and 2026. One service centre warns that, given the high imports from Asia into southern Europe over the past month, quota-related issues may arise.
Natalia Capra France
European manufacturers urge CBAM inclusion of solar products to ensure fair competition
The European Solar Manufacturing Council (ESMC) has urged the European Commission to extend the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to cover solar PV modules, mounting structures, and solar trackers. According to ESMC, excluding finished solar products creates loopholes that weaken EU competitiveness and carbon pricing integrity.
Current gap in CBAM coverage
Although CBAM already applies to carbon-intensive materials such as steel, aluminum, and glass, it does not extend to finished solar products that rely heavily on these inputs. A typical 22 kg solar module contains 14 kg of glass and three kg of aluminum, both subject to CBAM when imported separately. Yet, foreign manufacturers, particularly from China, can export finished products to the EU without facing the same carbon costs.
This imbalance means EU producers must buy CBAM certificates for raw materials, while foreign producers bypass carbon pricing, undermining the EU’s climate goals and industrial competitiveness.
Anticircumvention and feasibility
ESMC highlighted that extending CBAM to solar products would act as an anti-circumvention measure, preventing untaxed carbon embedded in imports from entering the EU. Most solar manufacturers already disclose emissions data through Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) or France’s Certisolis program, making compliance both practical and verifiable.
Strategic alignment with EU policy
The council stressed that including solar goods in CBAM aligns with the Net-Zero Industry Act and the European Solar Initiative, supporting EU reindustrialization while addressing supply security concerns. With 90 percent of solar modules installed in the EU currently sourced from China, ESMC warned of strategic risks in sustainability and resilience.
Technical recommendations
To support enforcement, ESMC backs SolarPower Europe’s proposal to create specific customs codes for mounting systems and solar trackers. This would help customs authorities identify and monitor imports effectively under CBAM rules.
European heavy steel plate markets sluggish; imported material offered with CBAM premium
European steel heavy plate prices remained mostly stable in the week to Thursday September 4, with sources noting continued sluggish trade after the end of the summer-slow period.
And imported material was heard offered for January delivery with a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) premium applied. Interest in such offers, and possible deals, suggest some importers are potentially willing to take on the risk of regulatory uncertainty around CBAM — and its related costs — to lock in import tonnages.
Italy
Italian commodity-grade heavy plate prices were flat over the pricing period, with sources noting a lack of buying appetite.
“There is still not enough demand strength to move prices up. We are looking at the gradual reopening of the market [after summer’s end],” a producer said.
However, a few market participants were bullish in their market assessments despite muted trading.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel domestic plate, 8-40mm, exw Southern Europe was €590-620 ($686-721) per tonne on Thursday, unchanged week on week.
Northern Europe
Prices for plate in Northern Europe’s domestic market widened downward slightly amid “very sluggish trade”.
And there was some market chatter around an expected pickup in trading toward the end of the month.
“What we are hearing from our sources and clients across Europe, and in particular Poland, Germany and Scandinavia, is that a purchase wave is expected within two to two and a half weeks’ time,” a second producer said.
Offer levels from mills in Germany were reported at a wide range, from €620-710 per tonne, but a trader source noted that mills offering at higher levels were rarely booking at such prices.
A few sources expressed a bullish price outlook, with one trader suggesting that domestic plate prices could rise in the coming months due to increased regulatory uncertainty and therefore greater risk for imported plate purchases, with new trade measures set to replace safeguards and the implementation of CBAM implementation in January 2026.
However, uncertainty around CBAM’s implementation continues to linger in the market, with rumors swirling around a possible postponement — despite no official confirmation of any changes to the mechanism’s implementation date.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel domestic plate, 8-40mm, exw Northern Europe was €620-670 per tonne on Thursday, widening downward by €10 per tonne from €630-670 per tonne a week earlier.
Imports
While heavy plate import prices have remained unchanged since June due to a lack of buying interest, high import stock levels and general weak demand, higher offers and possible deals were reported at €645 per tonne CIF Antwerp for January delivery.
This price includes an in-built CBAM premium, the inclusion of which is a recent occurrence in steel flat markets.
The price point was not included in Fastmarkets’ latest price assessment for northern European plate imports, as it exceeds the timing specification of 8-10 weeks.
Fastmarkets weekly price assessment for steel plate (8-40mm) import, cfr main port Northern Europe was €595-630 per tonne on Thursday, unchanged since June 4.
Fastmarkets weekly price assessment for steel plate (8-40mm) import, cfr main port Southern Europe was €585-600 per tonne on Thursday, unchanged since June 12.
The second producer said there will be more clarity on CBAM by the end of September or early October, but they estimate that the fee to be applied could cost around €30-35 per tonne.
CBAM rollout, safeguard revisions curb Europe’s appetite for steel imports
Uncertainties concerning the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the implementation of new safeguarding measures were limiting buying appetite for new steel imports into the EU, trade sources told Fastmarkets on Thursday September 4.
CBAM
The scheduled implantation of CBAM in January 2026 was currently the major talking point for the European steel market, Fastmarkets heard, due to continued lack of clarity on its implementation, just a few months ahead of the official starting date.
On August 28, the European Commission launched three public consultations on the practical implementation of CBAM.
These linked consultations were intended to finalize the rulebook for CBAM’s full launch – specifically defining how emissions will be measured, how EU free allowances will be adjusted, and how existing carbon prices paid elsewhere will be recognized – to ensure that the mechanism is fair, effective and ready by January 2026.
CBAM consultations goals
1. Define the methodology for the definitive CBAM period (starting January 1, 2026)
Main goal
To establish and refine the methodology for calculating the carbon emissions, both direct and indirect, embedded in imported goods under the CBAM once it transitions to its full (definitive) phase in 2026.
This includes clarifying the use of actual emissions data versus default values, simplifying and standardizing calculation procedures, and ensuring consistency with EU ETS-based reporting, thereby reducing administrative burdens and promoting environmental integrity.
2. Adjustment of CBAM certificates for free ETS allowances
Main goal
To set out detailed rules for adjusting the obligation of CBAM declarants (importers) to surrender CBAM certificates, to account for free allowances they would otherwise receive under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS).
This ensures that EU- and non EU produced goods will face equivalent carbon pricing, maintaining a level playing field when those free allowances are phased out from 2026 to 2034.
3. Carbon price paid in a third country
Main goal
To define the rules and procedures for allowing importers to reduce their CBAM certificate obligations by accounting for carbon pricing already paid in a third (non EU) country.
This includes specifying how to convert such payments to euros, what evidence must be provided and who can certify it, ensuring fairness and avoiding double penalties for non-EU producers which already face carbon costs.
The Commission will accept feedback until September 25, 2025, with a final draft on CBAM implementation expected to be published during the fourth quarter of the year.
Market reaction
Several sources told Fastmarkets that some Asian suppliers – notably from Vietnam, Taiwan and China – have been offering cold-rolled and hot-dipped galvanized coil with remarks that they were ready “to take the risk of CBAM costs,” meaning that supplier would bear any additional costs.
But it was still unclear what CBAM costs will be for new imports starting in January 2026.
“[CBAM costs] will depend on [emissions] benchmarks that the European Commission will set for each product, and on carbon emissions costs. All of that is not clear yet, and the final draft is supposed to be published after consultations on CBAM are closed [this month],” a buyer in southern Europe said.
Offers of CRC to Southern Europe from Vietnam were reported at €610 ($710) per tonne CFR and at €650 per tonne CFR from Taiwan.
In August, several market sources reported a booking of China-origin CRC to Antwerp at €640 per tonne CFR, with the price reported to include both anti-dumping duties and CBAM-related costs.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel cold-rolled coil, import, cfr main port Southern Europe, was €610-650 per tonne on September 3, up from €600-610 per tonne seven days earlier.
Vietnamese suppliers of 0.58mm HDG with Z140 coating were said to be hoping to achieve €810 per tonne CFR to Southern Europe, Fastmarkets heard. Bids for such material were heard lower by €30-40 per tonne at €770-780 per tonne CFR.
Steel safeguard measures
Another major steel imports regulation tool, steel safeguards measures that have been in place since 2019, were also expected to change in 2026.
The European Commission held public feedback consultations on future steel trade measures to replace the existing steel safeguard measures in July-August, with adoption planned for the third quarter of 2025.
The consultation attracted 143 submissions, with the great majority from European companies and associations supporting long-term measures based on tariff-rate quotas (TRQs), with no exceptions and covering all basic steel products, including steel derivatives and processed products, Fastmarkets understands.
Trade sources that spoke to Fastmarkets believed that the new measures would most likely come into force sooner than July 2026, with one mill source saying: “The idea is for the new measures to be implemented as of January 2026.”
Meanwhile, the existing steel safeguarding measures cover 26 product categories.
Fastmarkets analyzed hot-rolled coil (HRC), cold-rolled coil (CRC) and hot-dipped galvanized coil (HDG) steel safeguards quota usage by country from July to September 2025.
Regarding HRC, suppliers such as Turkey, South Korea and Taiwan managed to fully exhaust their allocated quotas for July-September. India, Egypt and Vietnam used less than one-third of their quotas during the same period.
In addition to the safeguard quotas, Egypt Vietnam and Japan have also had provisional anti-dumping duties for HRC imposed in the EU since April, with definitive duties expected to come into force in October.
For CRC, most countries under steel safeguards quotas managed to use between 91% and 100% of their allowance during the third quarter of the year, with only Turkey fully exhausting its allowance.
From Turkey, CRC offers were reported at €600-620 per tonne CFR on September 4. But despite having an advantage of quicker delivery to the EU, Turkey remained a risky option due to its limited quota allocation of only 43,989 tonnes per quarter.
“There are too many CRC suppliers in Turkey and too little tonnage available, so the quota is always exceeded,” a second European buyer said.
Similarly, most countries took advantage of their steel safeguard allowance for HDG – both categories 4a and 4b. Suppliers such as China and Taiwan used 100% of their quotas, closely followed by Turkey, Vietnam and South Korea, which used more than 90% of their available balances.
Julia Bolotova, Davide Montagner
European steel CRC, HDG prices rise, but growth remains limited
Downstream flat steel prices in Europe showed early signs of growth in the week to Wednesday September 3, with the market slowly picking up pace after the summer break, according to trade sources.
But business was still slow compared with previous years, with traders pointing to rising energy prices, lack of demand from key industries and regulatory uncertainty as some of the main issues facing the market.
“September is usually a good month, but even though we see prices going up, there isn’t enough demand to sustain those prices,” a distributor source said.
The source added that the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) was also “causing trouble” because buyers still do not know which duties will be introduced in January, which they said will affect demand.
“Sectors such as the automotive industry are still suffering,” a second distributor source told Fastmarkets. “I think that, by the beginning of next year, we’ll start to see more steel consumption.”
Southern Europe
In Southern Europe, domestic CRC prices increased in the week to Wednesday, according to market sources.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel cold-rolled coil, domestic, exw Southern Europe, was €630-650 ($735-748) per tonne on Wednesday, rising from €620-630 per tonne the previous week.
Import prices for CRC also increased in the week to Wednesday, with offers from Taiwan heard around €650 per tonne CFR, compared with €600-610 per tonne CFR in mid-August.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel cold-rolled coil, import, cfr main port Southern Europe, was €610-650 per tonne on Wednesday, rising from €600-610 per tonne in the previous assessment period.
Domestic HDG prices in Southern Europe also increased this week, with sources estimating the workable market around €650-660 per tonne CFR, compared with €630-650 per tonne CFR at the end of July.
Therefore, Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-dipped galvanized coil, domestic, exw Southern Europe, was €650-660 per tonne on Wednesday, up from €630-650 per tonne the previous week.
Meanwhile, imported HDG prices remained stable this week, with Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-dipped galvanized coil, import, cfr main port Southern Europe, at €660-690 per tonne.
Northern Europe
Domestic CRC in Northern Europe also showed a slight increase in the week to Wednesday.
Market participants estimated the workable price for domestic CRC around €670-685 per tonne ex-works on Wednesday, compared with €660-680 per tonne ex-works in mid-August.
But some offers were also heard around €660-670 per tonne ex-works this week.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel cold-rolled coil, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was €660-685 per tonne on Wednesday, widening upward from €660-680 per tonne the previous week.
Meanwhile, imported CRC prices remained stable this week, with Fastmarkets’ assessment for steel cold-rolled coil, import, cfr main port Northern Europe, remaining at €620-630 per tonne.
Prices for both domestic and imported HDG also remained stable this week.
The weekly price assessment for steel hot-dipped galvanized coil, domestic, exw Northern Europe, stayed at €670-690 per tonne on Wednesday.
And the assessment for steel hot-dipped galvanized coil, import, cfr main port Northern Europe, remained at €690-700 per tonne.
German study warns EU steel scrap export ban could undermine competitiveness and green transition
A new independent study conducted by the Ernst Abbe University of Applied Sciences in Jena in Germany has raised serious concerns about proposals to restrict steel scrap exports under the European Steel and Metals Action Plan (SMAP). Commissioned by the Federal Association of German Steel Recycling and Waste Management Companies (BDSV) and the Association of German Metal Traders and Recyclers (VDM), the study concludes that such measures would damage Europe’s competitiveness and hinder its green transition.
EU opens CBAM consultation on emissions calculation, free allowances and carbon price deductions
The European Commission has announced that it has launched a new consultation process to gather feedback on crucial aspects of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which will enter its fiscal phase in January 2026. This initiative is part of ongoing efforts to simplify the CBAM regulation, improve cost efficiency, and provide greater legal clarity to businesses. The feedback window will remain open until September 25, 2025.
Focus of the consultation
The consultation invites views on defining how to measure carbon emissions embedded in CBAM goods, rules for aligning CBAM certificates with free allocations under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), and establishing rules for deducting carbon costs already paid in exporting countries.
Who is targeted?
The consultation is open to a wide range of stakeholders, including EU and non-EU businesses affected by CBAM, the competent national authorities and customs officials responsible for enforcement, third-country authorities engaged in carbon pricing schemes and academics and researchers, invited to submit studies and data to support evidence-based policymaking.
Italy rebar prices widen amid fresh deals heard, lower offers; traders in wait-and-see mode
Rebar prices in the Italian domestic market widened in the week to Wednesday September 3, following deals heard second-hand in southern Italy and lower offers from some mills.
Prices are traditionally higher in the southern region of the country, so deals heard at €610-620 ($711-722) per tonne ex-works in that region pushed Fastmarkets’ price range up.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar) domestic, exw Italy widened to €560-620 per tonne ex-works on September 3, from €570-600 per tonne on August 27.
There were mixed perspectives within the market during the pricing session, with some sources expressing a bullish outlook for this month and into October, but most saying that they were in “wait-and-see” mode due to a lack of clarity in price direction.
One buyer said that they have been using their warehouse “to the fullest” and only purchasing to fill gaps rather than build stock.
“We’re buying the material we are missing until we understand how the market is moving,” the source said. “There’s a lot of work here in Italy, so demand is strong against a deficient supply.”
But other sources gave a contrasting, bearish perspective, with low demand placing downward pressure on prices.
“We had a good last week in August, but the beginning of September has been very quiet, and I think customers are in waiting mode to see if they [sense] the beginnings of a price downtrend,” a trader said.
In Spain, prices remained stable.
Fastmarkets’ price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar) domestic, delivered Spain was €640-645 per tonne on September 3, unchanged week on week.
In Northern Europe, prices were under slight downward pressure.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar) domestic, delivered Northern Europe was €630-640 per tonne on September 3, widening downward by €5 per tonne from €635-640 per tonne on August 27.
Material was reported booked at these levels.
European HRC prices drop slightly; market direction unclear
Domestic prices for hot-rolled coil in Europe dropped slightly on Wednesday September 3, with demand still muted following the summer break, sources told Fastmarkets.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €575 ($670.40) per tonne on Wednesday, down by €4.79 per tonne from €579.79 per tonne on Tuesday September 2.
However, the Northern European index was up by €2.50 per tonne week on week and by €15 per tonne month on month.
Trading was limited as people returned from the summer break, with traders expecting prices to rise by the end of September.
Integrated mills in the region were heard to be pushing for higher prices around €600-610 per tonne ex-works for October-delivery coil, several sources said.
Some suppliers were aiming for even higher prices for November-delivery HRC, at €630 per tonne ex-works.
However, other buyer sources reported lower prices from the market, estimating achievable prices around €550-580 per tonne ex-works.
“Business remains quite slow,” a source said, adding that expectations on price increases depend on how much “protection” buyers will get from extra costs linked to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and other regulatory updates.
Meanwhile, prices for overseas coil increased slightly over the past week.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil, import, cfr main port Northern Europe was €475-515 per tonne on Wednesday, increasing from €470-510 per tonne the previous week.
The upper hand of the range reflected lower end of offers from Turkey.
Italian market participants were largely holding back from trading, assessing the market after three weeks of summer break.
“We most likely will have two to three more quiet weeks in Italy before trading fully restarts,” a buyer source told Fastmarkets.
Buyer sources estimated tradable levels at €540-550 per tonne ex-works.
One trading source, however, argued that these levels were “hard to get” even from the most aggressive suppliers.
Mills in the region were hoping to achieve €560-580 per tonne ex-works for October-delivery coil.
A major supportive factor for potential price rises was the lack of “viable” import options amid looming CBAM implementation and new safeguard measures.
“Bullish sentiment is driven by potential import supply issues amid regulatory changes. Steel demand remains on the low side,” the second buyer said.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €548.33 per tonne on Wednesday, down by €1.67 per tonne from €550 per tonne on Tuesday.
However, the Italian index was up by €8.33 per tonne week on week and by €20.83 per tonne month on month.
Prices for overseas coil were stable this week, with minimal interest for new bookings reported amid regulatory uncertainty.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil, import, cfr main port Southern Europe was €470-520 per tonne on Wednesday, unchanged week on week.
Julia Bolotova, Davide Montagner