IREPAS Meeting: 2025 set to be record year for China’s steel exports
During his presentation at the SteelOrbis 2025 Fall Conference & 93rd IREPAS Meeting held in Munich on September 28-30, Alexander Gordienko, export director of Spain’s CELSA Group, started off by underlining that in July this year the IMF forecasts a 3.0 percent global GDP growth compared to 3.3 percent growth in 2024, indicating a loss of potential steel demand amounting to 25 million mt.
He added that emerging Asian countries are expected to see a growth of more than five percent, pointing out that 88 percent of the growth is coming from outside of China, showing that a lot of developing countries are doing well economically.
Looking at construction, Mr. Gordienko said that in the EU the construction sector is recovering this year, but only in infrastructure, with housing starts blocked by bureaucracy, while in the US as well, housing starts are down, by 19 percent since 2019, while infrastructure spending increased by 14 percent over the same period. In China, no hope of a recovery is on the horizon, with steel demand from housing decreasing by 45 percent compared to 2019.
Based on worldsteel’s August 2025 figures, the CELSA official pointed out that India is emerging as the country which has increased its steel production the most, with an increase of more than 10 percent year on year in the January-August period. India is producing as much as Japan and Russia combined, he noted. On the other hand, in the same period MENA and Southeast Asian countries also posted increases in steel production.
Gordienko also talked about Chinese steel exports as “the elephant in the room”, stating that as of July 2025 Chinese steel exports increased by 10 percent year on year, while China’s rebar and wire rod exports rose by 50 percent and its semi-finished steel exports surged by 310 percent, both year on year. He underlined that 2025 will be a record year for China’s steel exports, certainly exceeding 2015-16 levels.
Stagnant demand and mounting trade tensions
Comparing 2020 and 2025, long steel consumption decreased by nine percent and “as more and more capacity comes online, mills will have to cut costs so volumes will not be going up soon.” Gordienko said. Looking at capacity utilization rates, he indicated that, with 165 million mt of EAF capacity expected to come online, the capacity utilization rate will drop to 73.1 percent in 2027. He also explained that every percentage point decline means 18 million mt of capacity being idled, which is equal to Spain’s annual production. Compared to 2019, rebar consumption in 2025 increased by one percent, while wire rod consumption decreased by three percent and steel section consumption rose by four percent. Regarding rebar consumption, he pointed out that India will overtake the EU in 2026.
Commenting on prices, the CELSA official said that prices do not change much, noting that, in comparison with September 2024, the market remains incredibly stable and, looking at the spread between scrap and rebar, he said that it remains below $200/mt, signaling weak demand.
Turning at the end of his presentation to the challenges facing the market, Gordienko said that the same old headaches such as trade wars, weak demand, Chinese exports and CBAM remain but they are becoming larger. With more than 400 trade cases so far in 2025, the tariff situation is changing almost every week, steel exports keep flooding the market, with Chinese mills continuing to operate despite the weak demand and searching for buyers in overseas markets. In 2025, China will register a trade surplus of $1.2 trillion. Regarding CBAM, Gordienko said he expects the new tax will be around €60-90/mt and that CBAM will be finally adopted in other parts of the world as well.
AI data centers emerge as a surprising new steel consumer
Finally, touching upon a new, interesting issue, Gordienko pointed out that in the US the digital economy is emerging as a major steel consumer, with more steel set to be used to house AI than humans in the US. AI data centers will require 1.5 million mt of steel compared to 1.3 million mt required for residential buildings. Moreover, data center demand is cyclical, it does not depend on interest rates as the construction industry does. As it is built on national soil, it gives additional protection to local mills. “For every picture generated by AI means 0.2 grams of steel demand. It is less than half a paperclip, but billions of prompts turn into vessel loads of steel,” he noted.
IREPAS Short Range Outlook: September 2025
Mills struggle to make ends meet in global longs market amid severe competition
Demand is very weak and the situation remains difficult in the global long steel products market. Mills are cutting production, protectionist measures are continuing full speed ahead, while China and other countries in the region are exporting a lot, putting pressure on prices. There is very severe competition in the market and every producer is fighting with its last penny in order to keep operating. Imports displaced by US tariffs are searching for homes, causing worldwide disruptions and any demand is contested by multiple origins.
Demand may show some improvement after the holiday season
The holiday season is over and we may observe relatively better demand in the coming months. For the last few weeks, a small price increase has been seen in Chinese domestic market, which has had a positive impact but further developments in China need to be observed. Anticipated interest rate cuts may also create a positive atmosphere in the global longs market. The price of scrap has moved sideways and the main problem is that mills are operating with no profits due to low capacity-utilization, which creates real damage for the future.
Imports still flood into Europe, summer production halts may support market balance
Imports continue to flood into Europe and demand there is weak. However, with European mills cutting production over the summer there is at least a chance of some balance returning to the market in the fourth quarter of the year. Whether this leads to a real turnaround remains to be seen. German domestic prices dropped substantially from June to August but now mills are trying to push prices back up again and recover some lost ground. Activity is still very slow, but the expectation is that September will be a better month.
Court appeals against Trump’s tariffs create further uncertainty
US President Trump has now had five of his tariff rulings challenged by courts of appeals. This will throw the market into uncertainty, more than before. It may take at least six months to have the appeals go through the court system all the way to the Supreme Court.
Domestic supply meets most demand in US longs market, prices soften a little
In the US, demand is very soft. With little to no imports, domestic supply seems to be meeting demand, which is why prices have not moved up even with the 50 percent duty on imports. On the contrary, most prices are moving down a little each week. Capacity utilization is still under 80 percent despite six months of “tariff protection”. More capacity is coming online, which means that the capacity utilization percentage will probably move down further. The market seems to be waiting for interest rate cuts. If the cut is just 0.25 percent, it will not be enough to stimulate the economy. Most stockists expect a reduction or a change in import duties, which is why they prefer to wait, instead of importing now in order to restock.
Current market is unstable and unpredictable, with an unsatisfactory outlook
Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable. Prices are within long-term trends, but market fundamentals and economic policies are unpredictable. The outlook of the market for the next quarter is also unstable and unsatisfactory, with weak demand and policy uncertainty pointing to continued weakness of the market.
IREPAS short range outlook: July 2025
Uncertainty spikes further in global longs market due to 50 percent tariffs in US
The business environment in the global long steel products market, particularly in terms of the demand and supply balance, has not improved meaningfully. Other than that, the situation has worsened as the Trump Administration’s increase of US import duties up to 50 percent caught many exporters off guard. The uncertainty created by the Trump administration by doubling tariffs is terrific for those who are protected and terrifying for those under attack. These sudden changes in duties and tariffs make exporters to the US think twice about exporting and make it very difficult to come to a decision.
Buyers wait and see as outcome of talks awaited
Rumours about talks with Mexico and Canada and other countries’ approach to the US administration to see if they can obtain an exemption in any sense have put buyers into wait-and-see mode. On the other hand, huge debates and negotiations are being carried on between suppliers, receivers, and traders about who should be responsible for the extra burden for those cargoes which arrived at US ports after tariffs were raised to 50 percent.
Importers into US face serious difficulties
Importers into the US continue to face serious challenges, especially with cargoes already on the water or ready for shipment under L/C terms. Many are forced to either absorb heavy losses or cancel shipments altogether.
Prices creep up in US due to new 50 percent tariffs, consumers frustrated
In the US, demand remains moderate, but prices have started to creep up – largely due to the protection of the newly imposed 50 percent duty on all steel imports. Despite this, domestic prices are still not strong enough to justify new import orders. Meanwhile, persistently high interest rates are discouraging new investments and slowing down construction activity. In summary, aside from a few US domestic mills benefiting from the current trade environment, most steel consumers and processors remain frustrated with the situation.
Impossible to compete with exports from China and SE Asia
Elsewhere, it is not possible to compete with exports from China and Southeast Asia. Stimulus programs to help the market in China have not been effective at all. We can assume they will keep exporting heavily, which will mainly hit the other exporters in the region.
Europe flooded with cheap imports, regional mills face high costs
The weak dollar and displaced tons from Asia have encouraged imports and so Europe is flooded with cheap imported steel, while energy costs for European mills have gone up. Buyers have taken early and extended holidays, but scrap prices stay high. European mills are not able to cover melting costs. Unless demand picks up after the summer break, production cuts are likely.
Expectations of interest rate cuts provide some glimmer of hope
There is still some hope among market players that some of the recently announced tariffs will backfire. Expected interest rate cuts may be the only positive so far. However, it seems the US Federal Reserve will wait a little longer to see the impact of tariffs on inflation. Interest rate cuts are also expected in Turkey, though demand there is still low. The only activity is seen in construction in the earthquake-hit region and in the renewal of old buildings.
Market status unstable, short-term outlook unsatisfactory
The current status of the market can be described as unstable and the competition in the market is very strong all around. It is very difficult to predict the outlook of the market under the prevailing uncertainty created in the market. The market is structurally weak. Nothing will probably drive the market during July and August until the start of September. Accordingly, the short-term outlook for the market is unsatisfactory.
IREPAS Short Range Outlook: June 2025
Competition becomes predatory in oversupplied global long steel market
The global long steel products market is oversupplied and overcrowded. The situation has worsened and is now structural. The competition in the global market is predatory. Margins are dead. The only strategy is cashflow and turnover. Whoever can ship first, wins. Whoever negotiates for $5/mt more, loses the order. Every confirmed business is a major success. Moreover, without the US market, competition may become brutal.
Latest US blanket 50 percent Section 232 duty marks unprecedented shift
The latest US decision to impose a blanket 50 percent Section 232 duty on all steel imports marks an unprecedented shift – one that severely impacts importers while handing a windfall to domestic producers. Although there was previously a similar measure targeting imports from Turkey, this universal application is unparalleled. What makes this especially jarring is its immediate enforcement, affecting cargoes due to arrive soon, offering no transition period or due process. This abruptness feels inconsistent with the values and principles we have long associated with the US marketplace – predictability, fairness, and rule of law.
New US decision cuts its market off from rest of world, importers handed long vacation
If the 50 percent Section 232 duty holds, it may ironically render the US the most expensive steel market globally, shutting it off from the world at a time when collaboration and balance are most needed. It seems importers in the US have been handed a long, scorching summer of vacation, just as they brace to absorb the financial fallout of all US-bound cargoes. These are extraordinary times and must be navigated with clarity, unity, and resolve.
Demand still weak in Europe and Turkey, with imports putting pressure on prices
Demand is still soft in the European market and imports are putting a ceiling on any potential price increases. Unless there is an actual pickup in end-user consumption, prices will hover at current levels or drop, especially if more cheap Asian billet flows in. Demand in Turkey is still lacking also, but more important is that, with the current iron ore and coal prices, there will be more supply pressure from Far Eastern and Southeast Asian suppliers. Far Eastern and Southeast Asian origin steel billet prices are going down almost every day.
Scrap-based producers falling behind in terms of costs
Scrap-based producers are getting priced out. Billet from Asia is cheaper than melting scrap. There is almost no point in running a melt-shop when you can just roll. This shift reshuffles power, as cheap billet exporters win and EAF-based mills are now considered high-cost producers.
Chinese long steel exporters start to push out Southeast Asians
Southeast Asian mills, who had dominated the market, are now being quietly pushed out by China. Chinese long product exports surged by over 100 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2025. Reduced blast furnace costs, falling domestic demand, and export subsidies mean this wave of Chinese exports will not slow as it is policy-driven, not market-driven. A serious displacement is taking place. Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia are all fighting for markets. Even South Korean mills, who were deemed to be bulletproof previously, are now closing lines for the first time in decades. China is stable, but prices are not going up and their steel is cheap, hoping for new export markets. Oil prices are also weak which is good for some players in the steel market, terrible for others.
Market currently very unstable, outlook unsatisfactory, seems to depend on political decisions
The market is currently very unstable. No one is making money. Everyone is quoting, but very few are actually booking orders. The outlook is unsatisfactory and seems to depend on political decisions.
OECD: Some brighter prospects in ASEAN and MENA regions
The recently published OECD Steel Outlook 2025 states, “Demand in the OECD area will remain roughly constant, while Chinese demand will decline appreciably due to the downturn in construction and structural shifts in China’s economy. Prospects are brighter in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) areas, where demand will grow strongly.”
IREPAS in Athens: Markets in unknown territory
The 92nd meeting of IREPAS (the International Rebar Exporters and Producers Association) was held in Athens on April 27-29 in conjunction with the SteelOrbis Spring’25 Conference.
There were 143 representatives from 49 different producers among the 502 registered delegates from a total of 58 different countries. There were also 97 registrations representing 50 different raw material suppliers.
At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, said that the global long steel products market is currently overwhelmed by a spiral of duties and trade measures and protectionism such as has never been experienced before. He stated that the recently created uncertainties in the market on top of the already existing problems, the markets are now somewhat lost.
The IREPAS chairman added that the current environment is not bright and the level of competition in the global market is very strong, being almost at maximum levels.
On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.
Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Challenging year ahead, market will be much slower in H2
Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, noted that the EU steel industry has started the year quite well, though steel production in the region was low in the first quarter. He highlighted that the new German government is expected to ease the pressure from the uncertainties on the market, which may boost steel production. Noting that the green transition in the EU seems to be postponed, indicating that there seems to be no viable transition until at least 2030, he stated that a lot of mills in the EU will start shifting from the blast furnace route to the electric arc furnace route in the next five to 10 years and there will be uneven demand for scrap until that time. Addressing the scrap export restriction plans in the EU, he stated that, as scrap demand is low in the region now, any restrictions would put pressure on the steel industry but may also lead to more bureaucratized trade between scrap generators and steelmakers.
Regarding the Trump administration’s tariff actions, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee stated that, in the first few months this year, sales to the US were at enormous levels as a new tariff was anticipated. Noting that EU-based mills were running at high capacity to export to the US before the implementation of new measures, he said he believes that the market will be much slower in the second half of this year. He added that Trump’s second term will be much different than his first term. In addition, he expressed the belief that, despite the actions taken by the US, Canada and Mexico will not impose tax on steel exports to the US as the US is their biggest trade partner and a restriction would hurt their own industries.
Björkman stated that iron ore prices have been fluctuating at around $100/mt CFR, compared to $89/mt CFR seen in September 2024, due to higher production at the end of last year and early this year. He noted that, if China lowers steel production and the general output of iron ore increases, these two factors together will result in lower iron ore prices.
Traders at IREPAS: No reduction in US tariffs expected, trade conditions remain challenging
F. D. Baysal, the chairman of the traders committee, stated that, although the US imposing new 25 percent tariffs on imports from the countries previously exempted from the Section 232 measures seems like an advantage for the countries such as Egypt and Turkey which were already subject to 25 percent tariffs, only 18 percent of total imports into the US was from the Section 232-paying countries and 82 percent was from the exempted countries. He added that, despite the advantages some countries will gain, there will be no improvement in the market conditions given the economic uncertainties and the general market slowdown. Also, he said he believes that there will be no reduction in the US tariffs.
Looking at the EU, he said there have been some reductions in the import quota volumes, resulting in more challenging trade conditions. Considering the increased sales of wire rod and HRC over the past quarter from the ASEAN region to the EU, Mr. Baysal noted that, even though there are some restrictions on certain ASEAN countries, the EU is now more open to those countries compared to its old traditional markets given the free trade agreements between the EU and some Southeast Asian countries.
Mr Baysal added that he foresees no reduction in China’s exports and capacity utilization going forward.
Producers at IREPAS: Markets in unknown territory because of tariffs
Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, pointed out that the hot topic during the producers committee meeting was tariffs and their effect on business, adding that this is completely unknown territory and that nobody has any idea where things are headed at the moment, which makes it very difficult to conduct business.
He said that, as the Chinese domestic market is not doing so well, China will still be the main factor depressing prices as it is heavily dependent on exports and its prices are quite low compared to those of other exporters. He went on to say that the stimulus package is not helping much at the moment to boost to market, which is why China is selling billet to countries like Turkey and many other countries.
The IREPAS chairman noted that, as billet is a competitive alternative to scrap in terms of price, particularly Turkish mills will keep buying billet, adding that, as long as prices are at the current levels buying billets is much more profitable, even though the lead times from Asia are two to three times longer.
Commenting on the GCC shifting from being an importer to being an exporter, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that the reason they are exporting is that they have overcapacity, and are selling to the EU, especially Germany, and to North Africa and Israel. He indicated that the answer to the question on whether their exports will continue depends on how infrastructure projects will take shape in the region in the coming period and how much of that demand the local market can absorb: otherwise, they will continue to export.
Jamie Mcleod at IREPAS: EU is taking steps to simplify CBAM but not weakening it
Speaking at the SteelOrbis Spring 2025 Conference & 92nd IREPAS Meeting taking place in Athens on April 27-29, Jamie Mcleod, director at consulting firm Crowe U.K. LLP, talked about the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) which is in its transition period right now, stating that in January 2026 the definitive period starts, imposing a levy on carbon-intensive goods imported into the EU, with steel being the most affected good.
Mr. Mcleod said that the transitional period is only the reporting phase and the 5th quarterly report is due to be submitted in April, marking the third report requiring actual emissions data, as default values are no longer permissible for the rest of the transition period.
He underlined that obtaining reliable and complete actual emissions data remains a significant challenge. If actual data is unavailable, CBAM declarants must demonstrate that they have made all possible efforts to obtain it.
Regarding the CBAM, Mr. Mcleod stated that, apart from the obvious results, another practical result of the mechanism is that it will generate billions of revenues for the EU.
The EU is taking steps to simplify the CBAM but is not weakening it. He went on to say that the EU is proposing a mass-based threshold of 50 mt per importer per calendar year, meaning that, if an importer imports 50 mt for the whole year, they will be exempt from CBAM obligations. However, he noted, most steel importers will be over that threshold.
He warned that, from 1 January 2026, only authorised CBAM declarants can import CBAM goods into the EU.
If you are supplying to EU, you need to be authorized and applicants must have a strong compliance history, no customs debts, sufficient financial standing to meet their CBAM obligations, and suitable internal processes to demonstrate adequate CBAM management.
While EU importers are directly responsible for CBAM reporting and charges, the CBAM impacts the whole supply chain, the Crowe U.K. official pointed out.
Touching upon the UK’s CBAM, Mcleod indicated that it will come into effect in 2027 and that there will not be a transition period, adding that alignment between the UK and the EU could mitigate trade impacts for trade of CBAM goods between the parties.
Trade policy panel at IREPAS: Steel trade under pressure from tariff war
Summarizing the actions of the Trump administration, Matthew Nolan, counsel at ArentFox Schiff LLP, stated that the exemptions from the Section 232 tariffs have been lifted and duties have been almost doubled.
He also pointed out that the announced reciprocal tariffs have been postponed except for the 10 percent duty that every country has to pay. Stating that the US duties on Chinese products will result in some US companies running out of inventories, Mr. Nolan said it is going to be the downfall of the US economy. Saying that the chances of the US fully implementing reciprocal tariffs are very low, he said he believes that the US will sign agreements with some countries, leading to much lower tariff levels.
Regarding the non-tariff barriers and the challenges that companies face, he highlighted the ‘melted and poured’ rule in the US and the restrictions regarding Russian material.
He recommended that exporters navigating the current uncertain trade environment should be patient and added that he does not think the current extreme volatility will last forever and that the US will have to find another way to make its measures sustainable.
The next speaker, Nikolay Mizulin, partner and co-leader of International Trade at Mayer Brown, stated that the trade barriers reflect that the steel markets are increasingly becoming fragmented. Recalling that the EU has also postponed its counter measures against the US, he stated that the negotiations between the US and the EU are continuing, though, in his view, an agreement is unlikely.
He highlighted that the main problem is not the lack of an agreement between the parties but the diversion of steel from the US to the EU from other countries. Pointing out that the current EU safeguard measures will expire in June 2026, Mizulin noted that, as mentioned in the Steel and Metals Action plan, the European Commission will come up with a new protectionist tool, which is planned to be more effective, to replace the current measures in the face of the overcapacity problem.
Stating that the EU has also introduced a ‘melted and poured’ rule, he also added that the CBAM will also play a significant role in the EU’s trade going forward, affecting trade flows.
Meanwhile, regarding developments in the EU steel industry, Bülent Hacıoğlu, managing partner at Trade Resources Company, stated that exporters to the EU will not have a break from tariffs given the new protectionist measures planned.
Saying that the European Commission will no longer wait for actual material injury to occur to implement investigations, Hacıoğlu also highlighted that dumping margins will be much higher as zeroing and lesser duty rules in the EU no longer apply.
Looking at the US, he stated that both the Trump and Biden administrations focused on Customs and Border Protection and added that the current US government will prioritize making sure that all tariffs or duties imposed are collected.
Noting that currently two thirds of all nations in the world have larger trade volumes with China that with the US, he said that the US needs to figure out another way not to experience a recession.
IREPAS Short Range Outlook : February 2025
Global longs market under very strong pressure from Chinese exports, Trump 2.0 brings uncertainty and volatility
The global long steel products market is currently under very strong pressure mainly because of Chinese exports, which have been increasing and not showing any signs of slowing down. We have already seen what Trump 2.0 means – uncertainty, volatility and a lack of visibility. It seems like the situation will get even worse until the dust settles and his goals are clearly understood. So far, Trump’s announcements have given rise to concerns about inflation, which will slow down interest rate cuts.
US long steel and construction segments waiting for the dust to settle
The market in the US has entered a waiting period in terms of the outcome of some of the decisions already made by the White House and others under consideration and delayed for further negotiations. New infrastructure projects are on hold, amid the government freeze on spending. Interest rates have not come down and there is no clear sign for the near future, thus delaying many projects and also purchases by would-be home buyers. Labor shortages in the construction sector are becoming a near certainty, causing delays and higher costs for construction developments. Domestic rebar producers are reluctant to increase prices for another 30 days, until there is certainty regarding the duties on Mexico. They are generally competing with each other rather than with imports, which are very light.
All eyes still on China
On the other hand, the real determining factor for rest of the world other than the US is China, simply because the US is now a separate world for the global steel market. We all need to wait and see what China’s policy in the current year will be: will they continue with steel exports of over 100 million mt or will they slow down to help the global market to stabilize?
EU mills locked in cycle of low demand and high costs
The EU steel market is suffering from continuing low demand for long products, with European mills locked in a cycle of poor demand and high costs. The construction market in most EU countries is still very slow due to seasonal reasons but also in general due to much less demand from investors. In this context, the merger of Badische and Van Merksteijn will certainly have an impact in terms of consolidation. Meanwhile, energy prices in Europe are once again at levels not seen since 2022. The cold winter and the shortage of base load in Germany have pushed electricity and gas prices to their highest levels of the last three years, at least until the end of spring. These higher costs will force long steel producers in the EU to increase prices and to shut down more capacities in 2025. Feralpi seemed to have stopped production completely in January, while Riva Germany officially announced shutdowns to run from January 1 to March 30.
EU’s long steel import quotas quickly exhausted at start of year
The EU’s import quota for “all other countries” was exhausted on day two or three at the start of the year, with the huge volumes which were imported by Bulgaria and Romania. This means there will not be more imports from “all other countries”. Turkey and Algeria are mostly not competitive enough to attract EU importers. The price increases announced by German and Italian mills have not yet been accepted by the market but they probably will be as soon as benders have to restock, especially given the current euro/US dollar exchange rate. The very strong US dollar is another factor keeping prices low in the international market.
Protectionism is the new magic word, consumers to lose out
Protectionism seems to be the new magic word for economies worldwide. The markets are running into a spiral of protectionism in which everybody will lose out, especially the middle-class consumers and industries.
Longs mills forced to cut outputs, low profits make environmental targets unattainable
Mills in the long steel products market are forced to lower their capacity utilization rates, which will negatively affect their cost of production. There is a chain reaction of displaced export capacities due to Chinese exports. The steel industry is also suffering from a lack of profits, that makes it impossible to achieve net zero commitments.
Current market very difficult to operate in, outlook very unpredictable and unstable
Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable and very difficult to operate in. The outlook for the next quarter is very unpredictable and unstable.
Global markets face economic strains, inflationary pressures, trade measures: Irepas
The global economy faces significant challenges amid uncertainties over US trade policy before the Trump administration takes office Jan. 20, the International Rebar Producers & Exporters Association, or Irepas, said in its latest short-term outlook released Jan. 17.
The proposed tariffs, including a 25% duty on imports from Canada and Mexico, could disrupt supply chains, raise costs and increase global economic strains, Irepas said, adding that rising borrowing costs could further burden industries like construction, which were already struggling with low demand and inflationary pressures.
While some importing countries already subject to Section 232 tariffs, like Turkey, may benefit from a more level playing field in the US, the proposed tariffs may also increase costs for domestic construction, it said.
“These costs impact businesses, especially in capital-intensive industries like construction and could slow economic growth further, thus adversely affecting steel demand in general,” it said.
The pressure on the global long steel products market had been increasing as there was no positive news from China yet, while there was weak demand, market protection and excess capacity, Irepas said.
The EU was expected to announce a revision of its protective measures on April 1, while Turkey and India have already announced market protection measures, it noted.
India launched a safeguard investigation on imports of non-alloy and alloy steel flat products on Dec. 19, while Turkey started an antidumping investigation on cold-rolled, galvanized and pre-painted steel coil imports from China and South Korea in December after imposing antidumping duties on HRC imports from China, India, Japan and Russia in October.
“Competition in the market is very strong, while the market can be described as very poor and unstable, with a very unsatisfactory outlook,” Irepas said.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Turkish HRC at $550/mt ex-works on Jan. 10, down 22.5% since the start of 2024.
IREPAS Short Range Outlook: January 2025
Pressure still rising in global longs market, some answers expected after January 20
The pressure in the global long steel products market is increasing as there is no positive news from China yet, while everywhere there is weak demand, market protection and excess capacity. Some questions about the future are expected to receive answers after Trump’s inauguration on January 20
Still no positive news heard from China
Chinese export data for November 2024 showed that China was on its way to a record year in steel exports. The economic news coming from China is less than encouraging and there is no anticipation of any resurgence in its domestic demand for long steel products in 2025. In fact, it is puzzling how Chinese steel users still manage to consume 900 million mt of steel annually.
Global markets face economic strains, inflationary pressures and trade measures
The global economy faces significant challenges amid uncertainties over US trade policy before the new administration takes office. The proposed tariffs, including a 25 percent duty on imports from Canada and Mexico, could disrupt supply chains, raise costs and increase global economic strains. Rising borrowing costs could further burden industries like construction, which are already struggling with low demand and inflationary pressures. While some importing countries who are already subject to Section 232 tariffs may benefit from a more level playing field in the US, the proposed tariffs may also increase costs for domestic construction. These costs impact businesses, especially in capital-intensive industries like construction and could slow economic growth further, thus adversely affecting steel demand in general.
Could actions by Trump prove to be counter-productive?
In the US, after Trump becomes president again, mass deportations of undocumented workers could create labour shortages, particularly in construction, driving up costs and slowing growth. Domestic mills, like Commercial Metals, report losses due to domestic competition with high production capacities recently added by all domestic mills and with more capacity increases expected. While rebuilding after the Los Angeles fires may eventually boost activity, this may still be years away.
Europe still experiencing negative growth, to issue new protective measures
Europe is still experiencing negative growth. The European Union is anticipated to announce a revision of its protective measures on April 1. Turkey and India have also announced market protection measures.
Unpredictable period with low visibility ahead: what will China do?
Although market observers are expecting some answers to their questions to be made clear after January 20, the fact is that we are probably entering a very unpredictable period with low visibility. That said, there is still hope that after its New Year holiday China may repeat what it did back in 2016, but we need to wait for another month to find out.
Very strong competition in very poor market, with quite unsatisfactory outlook
Competition in the market is very strong, while the market can be described as very poor and unstable, with a very unsatisfactory outlook.