European HRC prices face upward pressure despite buyer resistance over impending trade measures
The European hot-rolled coil (HRC) market stood at a crossroads on Tuesday October 14, with buyers digesting higher offers from steel mills – mills that are hoping to push for even bigger increases once Europe’s new trade measures are enacted – despite a distinct lack of real demand, sources told Fastmarkets.
On Monday, leading European steelmaker ArcelorMittal announced higher offer prices for December (€630 ($729) per tonne) and January (€650 per tonne), ex-works or delivered.
Other mills in Europe are expected to follow the move shortly, according to sources.
One integrated mill in Northern Europe set a price target of €640 per tonne ex-works for January delivery HRC.
But in Germany, mills have yet to announce any new offers, Fastmarkets understands..
“We need a few days to assess the situation,” a mill source in Germany said.
And buyers in Germany and the Benelux region estimated the tradable level for December delivery HRC at no higher than €580-600 per tonne ex-works.
“It won’t be possible to achieve much higher prices [for HRC] in December” a buyer in Germany told Fastmarkets. “There is no shortage of material – we all bought more than enough for the fourth quarter, both domestically and from imports. But for January, it’s a different story.
“Prices [for HRC] are likely to keep climbing in early 2026 amid a lack of new imports. But €650 [per tonne] seems too elevated at the moment,” the buyer added.
A second buyer sources said that other mills were being cautious.
“There are still December volumes to sell and there is no shortage of supply at the moment,” the second buyer said.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €588.75 per tonne on October 14, up by €1.70 per tonne from €587.05 per tonne on October 13.
The index was up by €13.75 per tonne week on week and by €8.75 per tonne month on month.
But a fire last week at ArcelorMittal Fos-sur-Mer in southern France, which halted one blast furnace, might have more serious consequences for the market, sources said, with a company spokesperson unable to specify how long the furnace might remain idle nor provide estimates of potential production losses.
On Tuesday, however, sources told Fastmarkets the Fos-sur-mer furnace might remain out of action for at least a month, with some estimating downtime to of at least three months, which would halve the facility’s steel output over that period.
ArcelorMittal usual has two operational blast furnaces at Fos-sur-Mer, with a combined capacity of 5 million tonnes per year of pig iron. The site also produces HRC and cold-rolled coil.
Meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €587.38 per tonne on Tuesday, down by €9.25 per tonne from Monday.
The Italian index was up by €33.13 per tonne week on week and by €29.63 per tonne month on month.
Italy’s daily HRC index jumped sharply on Monday amid higher offers, but the decline on Tuesday is not a reflection of a downtrend, sources said, just of growing market uncertainty and the wide gap between mill offers and buyer price expectations.
After a weeks of being “in limbo” local suppliers started actively pushing for higher offers in Italy in response to the ArcelorMittal price hikes.
Offers for December delivery coil were reported at €590-615 per tonne ex-works in Italy, Fastmarkets understands, and one supplier still had some availability for November delivery HRC.
Buyer estimates of the tradable value were still lower than that, at around €570-580 per tonne ex-works, but no fresh deals were heard at the higher level.
And October-November delivery coil was traded at no more than €540-555 per tonne ex-works in Italy.
“Italian buyer are ready to close deals for new volumes at €570-580 per tonne ex-works, because €550 per tonne ex-works is not there anymore,” a buyer in Italy said. “Imports are out of question, at the moment,” the Italian buyer added.
Trading was still limited, however, because buyers have sufficient stock for the moment and are assessing the situation
“End users are not buying [HRC] for now and using their stock to survive,” a second Italian buyer said.
There were only a handful of import offers available on Tuesday, Fastmarkets understands.
One source said that offers from Thailand for first-quarter 2026 delivery HRC came in at €570 per tonne CFR Italy, indicating that Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) costs of €50 per tonne were included in the price. Even so, the offer was deemed unworkable by buyers.
No new offers were heard from Turkey on Tuesday, with one source indicating that €520-540 per tonne CFR was about right for HRC for December arrival. However, as of October 13, 402,732 tonnes of the quarterly quota for Turkish HRC for October-December 2025 was used (99.4%), with only 2,421 tonnes available until the end of the year.
“I booked some volumes from Turkey, but I won’t be able to custom clear everything duty-free – the quota is full,” a buyer in Spain said.
India-EU coil prices drop on proposed safeguard changes
Indian hot rolled coil export prices to Europe slipped by $5-10/tonne, week-on-week, for the second consecutive week, while cold rolled coil and other flat steel prices remained stable, Kallanish learns from sources.
Sources note the dip was mainly driven by the European Commission’s recent proposal to cut quotas and double steel tariffs. As well as the continuing uncertainty over the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) methodology.
In early-October, the EC proposed reducing tariff-free imports by 47% to 18.3 million tonnes/year, raising the out-of-quota duty from 25% to 50% and introducing a “melt and pour” origin rule. The current safeguard system is set to expire in June 2026 (see Kallanish passim).
Indian exporters remain cautious and have adopted a “wait-and-watch” strategy as they await further clarity on country-specific quota allocations in the newly proposed safeguard quota system.
Engineering goods exporters have also urged the Indian government to seek concessions on the proposed quota system in the ongoing India-EU free trade agreement negotiations, sources add.
As of Tuesday, Indian-origin HRC offers were down $5-10/t on-week to $595-600/t cfr Antwerp, or $535-540/t fob Mumbai, for S235 grade, November/December shipment.
According to EU Taric data compiled by Eurometal, India’s October-December HRC (category 1A) quota had 85% availability with 193,000 tonnes unutilised and 100t awaiting allocation as of 13 October.
CRC offers were steady w-o-w at $735-740/t cfr Antwerp, or $675-680/t fob Mumbai. The EU’s CRC (category 2) quota was 98% available with 161,800t unutilised.
HR plate offers were also unchanged on-week at $710-715/t cfr Antwerp, or $650-655/t fob Mumbai, for S275/S235 grades.
Hot-dipped galvanised coil offers also held steady at $785-800/t cfr Antwerp, or $725-740/t fob Mumbai, for 1mm Z275/DX51 grades, while pre-painted galvanised coils carried a $200/t premium over HDG for 0.5mm Z140 grade.
Metal coated (category 4A) was 94% available with 50,900t unutilised.
While category 4B was 97% available. Organic coated (category 5) quota was already exhausted as of 13 October.
In Vietnam, India-origin HRC offers were heard at $508-510/t cfr Ho Chi Minh City, or $496-498/t fob Mumbai, for SAE1006 base grades, November/December shipment. Freight from India to Vietnam ports is estimated at $10-15/t.
In the Gulf Cooperation Council, India-origin HRC offers were heard at $515-518/t cfr GCC ports, or $498-501/t fob Mumbai, for November shipment. Freight to GCC ports is estimated at $15-20/t.
Suhita Poddar India
European long steel round-up: slight improvement in apparent demand
Northwest European rebar prices moved down in the week to 15 October, driven by a slight improvement in apparent demand and a reported willingness from local rebar producers to secure advertised volumes at slight discounts.
McCloskey’s sources reported rebar price indications in Northwest Europe at similar offer ranges of EUR610-630/t delivered on week, but said that growing anxieties among buyers that incoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) costs, and the proposed overhaul of European steel trade defenses, could increase prices significantly and was pushing some buyers back into the market to secure future volumes at currently depressed price levels.
Specific offers were reported at EUR345/t base plus fixed extras of EUR255/t, for an effective ex-works price level of EUR600/t, then subject to additional delivery costs within Northwest Europe.
Input scrap prices generally declined in September before a very slight recovery in early October, giving producers some room to offload volumes at lower levels, or to compete against high volumes of low-cost imports brought cleared in early October to beat January’s CBAM liabilities.
Quotas for Turkish, Algerian, and Egyptian-origin rebar have been exhausted or substantially filled, though allocations within the residual quota to China’s 20% single-origin cap seem to have been reversed on week, with the majority of the quota now restored and a minimal volume awaiting allocation as of the latest update, 14 October.
Steel consumption is generally expected to improve in 2026, with the World Steel Association’s recent short range outlook for October forecasting 3.2% demand growth in Europe on the basis of infrastructural developments. However market participants remain pessimistic overall on the reality of manifesting demand improvements, foreseeing future difficulties with Europe’s labour and expertise capacities in quickly scaling these new or developing projects.
| EUR/t | Term | 15-Oct-25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Europe DEL rebar | DEL | 615.00 | -10.00 |
| Northwest Europe CFR rebar | CFR | 520.00 | 0.00 |
EU steel decarbonisation volatile, but support incoming
Momentum is building for EU steel industry decarbonisation despite postponements from the region’s leading steelmakers, as the industry prepares to receive long-anticipated lead market support from the European Commission.
The industrial transition of Europe’s steel industry has in many ways lagged behind expectations, especially after leading steelmakers like ArcelorMittal and Salzgitter announced delays to their green renovations earlier this year, premised upon a lacking investment case and arguments that Europe’s steelmakers cannot simultaneously decarbonise and remain globally competitive in current market conditions.
But – as announced by the European Commission last week – conditions in the European steel market could be about to change rather significantly, with the Commission proposing to ‘reset’ the EU’s steel supply balance back by over ten years to a 13% import share, a level preceding the ramp-up in global steel overcapacities in 2014-2015 and its consequences for the EU’s currently-depressed steel market prices.
Many of Europe’s steelmakers are continuing to advance their decarbonisation timelines: the Stahl-Holding-Saar Group (SHS Group) announced that together with its subsidiaries Dillinger and Saarstahl, its Power4Steel project has been awarded EUR1.7bn to fully fund its renovation toward hydrogen-based direct-reduced iron to electric-arc furnace steelmaking (H2-DRI-EAF). Tata Steel’s Maubeuge unit in France is also investing in optimizations to its steel painting lines, replacing its current natural gas-powered incinerators with new optimized electrical technologies. Salzgitter – which postponed the latter stages of its SALCOS decarbonisation project in September – is still working on savings elsewhere in its supply chain, agreeing to decarbonise its maritime transport of iron ore via an efficiency partnership with Oldendorff Carriers. Greenfield steelmaker Hydnum has also partnered with automotive OEM Gestamp in a circular supply agreement.
Emerging green steel standards
Not only could import accessibility decline such to increase domestic European steel prices under the Commission’s proposals, but as described in its European Steel and Metals Plan (ESMAP), the Commission has also scheduled lead-market support policies before the end of the year.
These policies, or regulatory proposals, would introduce sustainability and circularity criteria into public procurement, and introduce a voluntary ‘low-carbon label’ for green steel as the EU’s first official standard. An official definition for green steel is seen as vital in supporting European decarbonisation, not only in incentivising demand for low-carbon products via top-down procurement mandates, but also by giving necessary certainty to stockholders that the material they source as ‘green’ will also be officially – and permanently – regarded as such, and will maintain its value in sales to consumers.
Sliding scale mechanisms – such as the Low Emissions Steel Standard (LESS), ResponsibleSteel’s framework, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) and First Movers Coalition’s (FMC) near-zero steel thresholds – account for a steel product’s constituent scrap share in taking a ‘practical’ view of the transition from emissions-intensive blast furnace steelmaking, and seem the frontrunner in any official European definition.
In September, SSAB announced that it has achieved IEA/FMC thresholds on its US production of SSAB Zero steel at its Montpelier site significantly ahead of general timelines out to 2030, producing near-zero steel via a mix of scrap, renewable energy, and H2-DRI inputs. LESS also awarded its first green steel certifications to European steelmakers around the same time, now claiming to represent approximately 45% of steel production on the continent following the recent joining of upcoming greenfield steelmaker Stegra.
New investment difficulties
Against this backdrop, the stage seems somewhat set for Europe’s steel industrial transition to gain momentum, and many of Europe’s steelmakers have been moving to ready themselves in aligning to different standards – though news is not necessarily all positive for new entrants to the EU market such as Stegra.
Stegra, building a greenfield hydrogen-fed direct-reduced iron to electric-arc furnace (H2-DRI-EAF) plant in Sweden, has announced a new financing round to cover up to 15% of the project’s total funding, but media reports note that its project financing gap has increased significantly since its last showing.
CEO Henrik Henriksson described the project as over 60% complete, with “clear visibility and a detailed plan for the full runway up to completion,” but media reports illustrate Stegra’s investment case as troubled given a large increase in cited funding gaps, and parallels with the ill-fated, and similarly structured, Northvolt.
Market participants suggest that Stegra does not have much financial runway, especially after failing to receive state grants “that were not fulfilled despite approval from the EU Commission,” as described in the greenfield steelmaker’s statement. Stegra also cites necessary infrastructural investments, “initially intended to be funded by external parties,” which will now be directly managed and owned by the company itself.
Stegra recently announced a supply agreement with its backer Microsoft, part of which decouples the ‘green value’ from its production to be sold as Environmental Attribute Certificates (EACs) to offset related emissions, said to allow support for the green steel market via revenues from new sources where buying Stegra’s physical low-carbon steel directly is either impossible or unrealistic.
The green steel investment case is already a difficult argument for Europe’s incumbent steelmakers given the lack of consolidated green steel demand, regulatory support, and standardised liquidity for price discovery of low-carbon steels. McCloskey’s own approach is a holistic one, calculating the value of a single unit of reduced carbon on the basis of all green premia for low-carbon hot-rolled coil, surveyed weekly, and currently standing at EUR47.62/t as of 10 October.
The European Commission’s upcoming regulatory efforts, including both its lead market proposals and new steel protection framework could pull matters in either direction for Stegra – on the one hand the project could become more attractive as a source of low-carbon supply at a time of potential domestic undercapacity as the EU market is reset; but on the other, increased price transparency and liquidity for low-carbon steels could expose that Stegra’s investment case is unsupported by actual green market fundamentals.
Benjamin Steven Journalist, Steel
EU council endorses tax incentives to drive clean technologies and industry
The Council of the European Union has announced that it has formally adopted conclusions endorsing the use of tax incentives to advance the Clean Industrial Deal, a core framework aimed at aligning industrial decarbonization, clean technology deployment, and competitiveness across the EU.
The council emphasized the need to reignite Europe’s economic dynamism, strengthen industrial resilience, and maintain the EU’s position as a global manufacturing hub. The conclusions are based on the European Commission’s Competitiveness Compass and Clean Industrial Deal communication, both of which outline a coordinated roadmap for reducing emissions and strategic dependence on external suppliers.
The council welcomed the European Commission’s recommendation on tax incentives and the new Clean Industrial Deal State Aid Framework (CISAF), which establishes guiding principles for member states introducing national tax measures to support clean energy, industrial decarbonization, and innovation.
Tax incentives are recognized as a key policy tool within the EU’s broader mix of clean industry policies, balancing competitiveness with climate goals. However, the council reaffirmed that taxation remains a member state competence. Governments are free to design incentives in line with their fiscal priorities and budgetary capacities, provided they support the objectives of the Clean Industrial Deal.
Flexibility remains a central principle, acknowledging Europe’s diverse industrial bases and tax systems.
When developing tax incentive schemes, member states are encouraged to:
- focus support on activities that contribute directly to decarbonization and clean technology
- prevent distortion of competition within the internal market.
- favor expenditure-based incentives for cost efficiency.
- maintain simplicity and transparency to provide legal certainty for companies and administrations.
The council urged continued exchange of information and best practices between member states and the European Commission to report regularly on international developments related to tax incentives for industrial decarbonization.
The council also called for the continuous evaluation of incentive effectiveness and close cooperation between the European Commission, European Council, and national authorities. This approach aims to ensure they contribute to the goals of competitiveness, industrial resilience, and the green transition.
ArcelorMittal mulls restart of steel rolling mill in Romania in November
Steelmaker ArcelorMittal was considering the possibility of restarting rolling operations at its Hundeoara asset in Romania in November, the company press office told Fastmarkets on Wednesday October 15.
The company suspended operations at the mill in early September, citing high electricity costs and increased market pressure from low-priced imports.
Earlier this month, Romanian news agencies cited the president of the Steelworkers’ Union, Mircea Bordean, when reporting that the company would restart its rolling mill from November 1, using steel bloom from its own ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih production asset in Ukraine.
Neither ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih nor the European press office of the company would confirm this information about bloom supply from Ukraine.
“We are exploring different possibilities and have informed our employees about these options, to ensure full transparency,” the company told Fastmarkets on October 15.
“In the meantime, the period of economic unemployment has been extended for another month, to the end of October, while discussions continue and final decisions are taken regarding the plant’s future. It is too early to talk about details because no decision has been taken,” it added.
A source at another European mill, however, said that once the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) comes into force on January 1, 2026, Ukrainian blooms will be “too expensive” considering the cost of CBAM certificates.
According to Fastmarkets’ estimates for semi-finished materials produced via BF/BOF method, the cost will be €88.65 ($103) per tonne.
ArcelorMittal Hundeoara has capacity to produce 800,000 tonnes per year of crude steel by the EAF route and 400,000 tpy of rolled products (sections, beams, channels, angles and round bars). Nevertheless, before the stoppage the mill’s actual production was no more than 200,000 tpy.
European HRC market steady despite mills pushing for higher offers
The European hot-rolled coil market was mostly stable on Wednesday October 15 following recent pushes by mills to raise offer prices, which have drawn some resistance from buyers, sources told Fastmarkets.
On Monday, leading European steelmaker ArcelorMittal announced that it had raised its offers for HRC for December to €630 ($729) per tonne and for January to €650 per tonne ex-works or delivered.
Other mills in the region are also expected to increase their offers, Fastmarkets heard this week.
The market remains divided while it assesses the feasibility of these higher offers amid weak buyer demand, sources said.
Sentiment remains bullish, however, with new trade regulations and the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) expected to limit imports in 2026.
“Mills are asking for higher prices, but customers are very reluctant at the moment,” a distributor source told Fastmarkets.
“The market is split – the general consumption is not very good, stable, but at a low level,” the source said, adding that most market participants believe that prices will increase.
Some buyers in Northern Europe estimated tradable levels around €580-600 per tonne ex-works, but no sales were heard during the day.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €589 per tonne on October 15, up by €0.25 per tonne from October 14.
The index was up €10.25 per tonne week on week and by €8.69 per tonne month on month.
The market for imported coil to Northern Europe was quiet, with only a few offers reported over the week to Wednesday.
Offers from Turkey were heard at €530 per tonne delivered, including duties, while offers from Libya stood at €490 per tonne CFR.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil, import, cfr main port Northern Europe was €500-520 per tonne on Wednesday, unchanged week on week.
Meanwhile, the Italian market was also mostly stable, with estimates of the workable level heard hovering €570-580 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy dropped slightly to €576.67 per tonne on Wednesday, a €1.45 per tonne declined from Tuesday.
The Italian index was up by €31.67 per tonne week on week and by €27.92 per tonne month on month.
Regarding imported coil to Southern Europe, offers from Turkey were reported at €520 per tonne CFR, including duties.
Offers from India were also reported at €520 per tonne CFR.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil, import, cfr main port Southern Europe was €485-520 per tonne on Wednesday, unchanged week on week.