Proposed EU quotas can mirror market shifts
The new quota system proposed by the European Commission earlier this month to replace the existing safeguards will be dynamic and will be applied quarterly to 26 product categories in a first phase, with the possibility of revision, according to Enrique Arrieta, European Commission policy officer for trade and economic security.
The measure is expected to enter into force in June 2026, with a “relatively immediate” effect, although its long-term impact will be assessed in the light of market developments. “We have put in place mechanisms that will allow the Commission to adapt the measure to different economic scenarios,” Arrieta said at the Steel Tech 2025 conference in Bilbao on Wednesday, attended by Kallanish.
According to the expert, steelmakers have made it clear they do not want the new import system to cover semi-finished steel. “We are not deliberately excluding this category,” Arrieta pointed out. “We have a high level of engagement with the industry, and we are trying to understand their needs so that the measure better responds to them. Therefore, the Commission does not see the need to include something that has not been requested by the industry itself.”
However, Brussels reserves the right to amend the product codes subject to the measures, provided there is sufficient evidence and justification to extend their scope.
As for negotiations on an EU-US trade agreement, Arrieta said there is still no definite date for its signature and that progress will depend “largely on the willingness of the US counterparts”.
He added that one key requirement for moving forward will be that the countries with which a tariff reduction is negotiated have a solid level of customs protection. “In the past, we have been criticised for not having a sufficiently secure level of protection. I believe that with the latest proposals from the European Commission, we have shown a substantial improvement,” Arrieta stressed.
Despite mutual interest and expressions of goodwill, there is still no clear timetable for concluding the agreement.
“We believe that our proposal represents a solid starting point, with requirements that allow for a more equitable treatment in their [US] market, which is very important for them as well as for us,” he added.
Todor Kirkov Bulgaria
French steel prices stagnate amid uncertainty, competition
French long steel consumption remains stable compared to last month, with multiple buyers reporting stable volumes albeit at margins too low to turn a profit, Kallanish hears.
Uncertainty and political instability continue to weigh on sentiment as investments are delayed, and trading volumes remain relatively low.
A large buyer says that mills continue to produce, but sales are below the level of production, which creates a fragile balance.
While transaction prices for longs remain largely unchanged from early-October levels, sources see that competition between European mills is strong. This, coupled with weak sales, high production volumes and increasing producer stocks, may cause prices to slide, particularly on some products such as merchant bar where foreign competition is fierce.
The EU’s new safeguard proposal and CBAM coming into force in January should not impact longs prices, according to market participants, as imports from overseas are minimal. Tube and sheet prices are instead edging up following the recent increases implemented by coil producers in Europe, including ArcelorMittal.
In the south of France, the presence of Spanish and Italian producers is resulting in longs prices that are slightly lower than in the north.
A seller in the Lyon area reports Italian and Spanish prices for rebar about €30/tonne ($35/t) lower compared to domestic prices.
“Steel processors and distributors are not managing to make any money, as there are practically no margins. Companies are chasing volumes and fighting, and negotiations with producers are complicated,” one market source comments.
Producers of long and flat products are attempting to push through price increases, yet buyers remain sceptical due to slow consumption. One producer notes that inventories are slow to deplete, leading to stock accumulation.
Rebar values remain unchanged at around €600-620/t delivered on average, with sales limited to relatively small volumes as stocks deplete slowly.
Sections are similarly stable at €750/t delivered on average. The recent attempt to increase prices to €770-780/t in September was not successful.
Merchant bar prices represent the competition of Spanish producers and remain unchanged at €220-240/t delivered.
Considering the slow market and the competition amongst European producers, prices are forecast to be weak in the coming weeks.
Natalia Capra France
European mills delay issuing coil offers amid uncertainty
Some coil producers attending the Blechexpo event in Stuttgart this week tell Kallanish they are refraining from issuing quotations for the first quarter of next year. Many are adopting a wait-and-see approach as they monitor market developments, particularly the implementation timelines for CBAM and new EU safeguard measures, before setting future coil prices.
Suppliers in Europe are also considering ArcelorMittal’s one-month production halt at its Fos-sur-Mer steelworks in France, which will impact supply availability in the coming weeks. ArcelorMittal is currently quoting hot rolled coil at €630/tonne ($731) delivered for December delivery and €650/t delivered for January, with other European producers quoting similar values.
An Italian steel processor says buyers across the market “both large and small, have yet to return to active purchasing. Everyone is now assessing the situation and trying to reorganise their future procurement strategies by increasing the share of their purchases within Europe.” Another market participant notes that European and Italian coil prices remain stable compared with last week, as demand gradually improves along the value chain, including for downstream products such as sheet.
For now, there is little urgency in the market to buy, as large import volumes ordered during the summer continue to arrive at European ports. Both producers and service centres in Italy report renewed customer enquiries for quotations. According to sources, €570-580/t base delivered for HRC is no longer available. Several buyers confirm small transactions taking place in Italy at €600-620/t base delivered.
The market is currently in a transition phase, with customers focused on assessing future price trends and preparing to buy more in Europe. A seller confirms end-users have begun requesting quotations for first-quarter deliveries, while service centres are expected to resume purchasing within the next few weeks to cover year-end and early-2026 requirements.
“Next year, we may see a higher share of indexed contracts, as major buyers reduce their purchases from Asia and increase sourcing within Europe,” one buyer comments. According to market rumours, some large buyers are already bidding to secure substantial volumes of HRC for 2026.
Another market observer notes that European producers may need to increase capacity and restart some blast furnaces to meet rising domestic demand. Overall, the recent and future price increases are being viewed positively across the value chain, as service centres and re-rollers are also gradually managing to pass on price hikes to customers.
Several sources forecast HRC prices reaching around €650/t base delivered in January, and €750-760/t for hot-dipped galvanised and cold rolled coil. At these levels, the impact on downstream and manufacturing sectors remains manageable. However, further price escalation could have negative repercussions, eroding competitiveness within the European manufacturing industry.
Natalia Capra France
European HRC suppliers remain bullish; buyers less optimistic, citing lack of demand
European hot-rolled coil producers were gradually pushing for higher prices for the first quarter volumes. Meanwhile, buyers questioned the size and the sustainability of the increases that could be accepted amid a lack of real demand, Fastmarkets heard on Wednesday October 22.
German and Benelux-based mills were looking to achieve €620-630 per tonne ex-works for January delivery coil.
Buyers generally agreed that with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and new trade measures, uncertainty was expected to limit new imports or “push import prices close to the European.” Therefore, domestic HRC prices were expected to rise.
“We do expect an increase for the first quarter delivery coil, but the question is, how much and for how long it will last since demand from end-users is not rising,” a buyer in Germany said.
“Our customers are quiet; we haven’t booked many tonnages for the first quarter yet,” a steel service center in Germany told Fastmarkets.
“There are no serious volumes booked for January; buyers are waiting,” a second steel-service center added.
Buyers’ prices ideas for January delivery coil were not exceeding €610 per tonne ex-works so far, while December delivery coils were booked at no higher than €580-590 per tonne ex-works.
Supplier sources estimated achievable prices for January coil at €610-620 per tonne ex-works.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €597.14 per tonne on Wednesday, up by €2.14 per tonne from €595.00 per tonne on Tuesday.
The index rose by €8.14 per tonne week on week and by €19.64 per tonne month on month.
In Italy, offers from one local supplier were heard within the range of €630 per tonne delivered (€610-615 per tonne ex-works).
Another seller was aiming closer to €600 per tonne delivered, while customers’ price ideas of workable levels varied.
Some of them provided estimates at €570-580 per tonne ex-works, adding that levels above that are not achievable at the moment, due to low demand and high availability of HRC in the market, both imported and domestic.
Some stakeholders on the buy side gave estimations that were closer to mills’ target levels — at €600-610 per tonne delivered.
“There are mixed feelings in the market about new price increases; nobody is buying much for January yet,” a local distributor said.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €588.33 per tonne on Wednesday, up by €2.91 per tonne from €585.42 per tonne on Tuesday.
The Italian index was up by €11.66 per tonne week on week but up by €38.33 per tonne month on month.
The market for imported HRC has been quiet lately because most of the overseas suppliers are offering HRC with delivery in the first quarter of 2026. Therefore, prices for these tonnages will be subject to EU’s CBAM.
Offers from Turkey were reported at €530 per tonne CFR, including the anti-dumping duty, but a local buyer said that with CBAM costs (estimated at €55 per tonne), unloading and delivery costs, the prices will be “close to European” and around €620-630 per tonne delivered.
From Indonesia, offers were reported around €470 per tonne CFR, excluding CBAM costs.
Marina Shulga in Dnipro contributed to the report.
EU proposal considers trade agreements, value chains
The European Commission’s latest trade proposal, the melted-and-poured requirement, and CBAM are very important tools to support Europe’s steel industry, says Leopoldo Rubinacci, European Commission deputy director general for trade and economic security.
The steel sector is in a critical state at a time of uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, and it is important to continue protecting it to ensure Europe has a competitive industry, he noted at the Steel Tech 2025 conference in Bilbao on Tuesday, attended by Kallanish.
According to Rubinacci, the steel industry faces major difficulties, many of which are unrelated to imports, as it is not self-sufficient. One of these is sluggish demand. “In times of relatively low growth, the situation is complicated. There is a problem of very high energy costs and the challenge of decarbonisation, which European companies are tackling head-on and will require large investment,” he noted.
Most conference attendees considered Chinese overproduction to be a problem, with global capacity far exceeding demand. This imbalance is driving a restructuring of production that involves plant closures, layoffs and bankruptcies of entire companies. The problem has reached an unsustainable level in Europe, as it is not only an economic issue but also a social problem, delegates warned.
Since 2018, the EU has adopted safeguard measures which have helped to regulate the market by setting limits on free trade. These measures will expire in June next year. “We have done some calculations and decided to take action. We believe it is important that the European Commission proposal can replace the safeguard without causing a temporary disruption. As for the timetable, the final decision now rests with the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament. The initial reactions we have received are quite positive. We therefore hope that the legislative process will not be too complicated,” Rubinacci explained.
The EU will have to negotiate with certain countries on possible compensation to mitigate the effects of the new measures and redistribute import quotas among 30 product categories.
“The first task is to identify our main suppliers. As in previous situations, we want to ensure that these main suppliers are aware of the specific circumstances. Why is this necessary? Because if we impose a global limit, the import quota would be applied on a first-come, first-served basis, which could favour some countries over others,” the deputy director general said.
“The problem is evident, as steel buyers already have their own organised purchasing systems and value chains. This could create conflicts between legitimate state policies and individual users’ preferences when choosing where to buy,” he added.
Among the factors that must be taken into account are special trade agreements, as they constitute an important dimension that the sector cannot overlook. “We have contacted our trade partners with a clear message. We find ourselves in a situation where we have no choice but to proceed with what is necessary, but remain committed to working with them to find appropriate solutions,” Rubinacci asserted.
Industry representatives at the meeting agreed that, regardless of how the duty-free quota is allocated on a country-specific basis, all market players should expect their import possibilities to be quite limited compared to previous years.
“In response to the steel circumvention resulting from the US tariffs, the EU’s melted-and-poured requirement will give more transparency in the market. Decarbonisation remains a priority while the creation of CBAM will be essential for the sustainable future of the sector,” Rubinacci concluded.
Todor Kirkov Bulgaria
Blechexpo: European coil players debate extent of hikes
The European Commission’s proposal to impose new safeguard measures against steel imports is encouraging domestic mills to bring up prices to above €600/tonne ($696), despite sustained market weakness.
Most observers at Wednesday’s Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart said the safeguards and subsequent price hike attempts are not really spurring real demand. However, they acknowledged the necessity for mills to raise prices and want to believe an uptrend is possible. At least, “a slight upward price correction in the fourth quarter seems likely now that the market is finding more calm and confidence,” one Dutch manager told Kallanish during the event.
A German manager put a figure to it, saying mills would not release any more volumes of hot rolled coil in the fourth quarter for less than €600/t ex-works. It was suggested by some market participants last week that some residual volumes were still available for less, but that option seems to be exhausted now. He sees €600 as being a psychological mark that will not be undercut.
A Dutch buyer concurred, noting that “mills will actually try to get way more than €600”.
One mill group manager also put a clear figure to what his company is seeking to obtain in the first quarter of 2026. “We had left the market and did not make any offers for one week,” he said. “Now, we are asking for €640-650/t delivered, depending on the region and on the transport costs.”
While this is similar to the offers heard from another mill group, the German manager does not see a coordinated move by the mills, but rather believes price hikes were inevitable. “Prior to the Blechexpo, it was already a common assumption the fair would confirm the price hike efforts,” he concluded.
Christian Koehl Germany