Blechexpo: EU CRC market braced for strong impact from new trade regime, anti-dumping investigation
Stakeholders said that new trade policies and and a pending anti-dumping investigation into CRC imports were driving positive market expectations for 2026, even though they acknowledged that real demand is not expected to grow.
On September 18, the European Commission initiated an anti-dumping (AD) investigation targeting CRC originating in India, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey and Vietnam. The probe affects more than half of all EU CRC imports.
In 2024, those five countries accounted for 65.2% (1.9 million tonnes) of the total 3 million tonnes of CRC sold into the EU.
“In our opinion, if there were to be a shortage of material next year, it will be cold-rolled coil,” a German buyer told Fastmarkets on the sidelines at Blechexpo.
CRC prices in Northern Europe have moved slightly higher in mid-October, prompted by positive views among sellers after the new EU regime for 2026 was announced on October 7.
The German buyer source said that domestic mills were “not interested in selling big volumes of cold rolled coil, at least for commodity steel grades”, adding that suppliers preferred to use CRC to produce galvanized material.
“Producing CRC is expensive in Europe. And [CRC] has been import-dominated for years,” a second German buyer said.
Sources said that most EU mills use the batch annealing process to make CRC, which is very energy-intensive.
And only three suppliers could make CRC via continuous annealing, which is more energy-efficient, sources said
While trade restrictions and lower imports were seen as supportive factors for the market, weak end-user demand – particularly from key sectors such as automotive – is expected to offset much of that positive impact, sources said.
“We don’t expect our business with the automotive sector to grow,” a third German buyer said.
Buyers also questioned the sustainability of any potential price increases, given the low levels of demand.
According to a report published by the European Association of Automotive Suppliers (CLEPA) in March 2025, almost half do not expect to be profitable in 2025.
And a Benelux-based seller said that domestic prices CRC were unlikely to “shoot up” because of potential product shortages caused by the new import measures.
According to the seller, there is an “underestimation” of the ability for local mills to “fill the gap” left in the market by lower import volumes.
“There is a big part [of CRC] that is used to produce very basic quality value galvanized coil, which we won’t need to do if the price of CRC increases,” the seller said. “It depends on the balance that you make.”
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel cold-rolled coil domestic, exw Northern Europe was €670-690 per tonne on Wednesday, compared to €660-670 per tonne the previous week.
For January delivery, local suppliers told Fastmarkets they were looking to get €730-750 per tonne ex-works for CRC.
Blechexpo: Stainless flats recovery slow to materialise
European stainless flat products prices are expected to continue rising, though the consolidation of recent increases is likely to take longer than anticipated.
Downstream consumption remains difficult, mirroring trends seen in the carbon flat steel sector, stainless steel mills and processors confirmed at this week’s Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart attended by Kallanish.
While European coil procurement is projected to increase as buyers shift towards local sourcing amid strong protectionist measures, stainless steel processors do not expect an equivalent rise in their sales volumes.
“The situation should improve during the first quarter as coil prices climb and we purchase more European material. Mills will benefit from the European Commission’s new protectionist policies. Margins may improve somewhat in the coming months, but consumption levels are expected to remain similar to those seen recently,” a German stainless steel processor commented.
European mills are raising prices, although some erratic commercial behaviour is still evident on the production side. “Nobody can afford to lose orders. We’ve had many difficult months with low or negative margins, so mills are also acting aggressively at times,” another processor said
All sources at the event agreed that a market recovery remains out of reach. More decisive price increases are expected to materialise during the first quarter. There is currently little appetite for imports, as Asian prices are not competitive with European levels.
Large buyers nevertheless continue to source from the import market. “We don’t have a choice,” one buyer explained. “We cannot accurately calculate CBAM costs, so we are buying almost blindly. Our projections may be wrong, and we’re taking risks knowing that CBAM payments will begin in 2027.”
A mill source reported that end-user demand is stable, neither falling nor improving. Stock levels remain elevated across Europe and are particularly high in slower markets such as Italy. The automotive sector continues to underperform, reflected in delayed purchasing activity, while investments in heavy industry are being delayed amid uncertainty.
According to market participants, it will take at least six months for the market to adjust to the new CBAM and safeguard regulations, with purchasing patterns expected to be restructured during this period. Certain low-cost finished steel imports remain outside protectionist measures, causing further pressure on the downstream sector, another source noted.
Buyers at Blechexpo widely agreed that flat steel prices have bottomed. European mills have announced coil price increases of approximately €30/tonne ($35) for December delivery and are evaluating further hikes of up to €50/t for January. While there are early signs of stabilisation, market participants at the event remained cautious. Confidence in mills’ ability to enforce higher prices is limited, given the ongoing uncertainty in downstream demand through Q4 and extending into Q1.
In northern Europe, mills’ stainless cold rolled coil quotes stand at around €2,240-2,250/t ($2,621-2,633/t) delivered. However, it is unclear if these have been accepted by the market. One source believes levels could reach €2,300/t by January.
Natalia Capra France
Blechexpo: European coil buyers question increases, Asian purchases continue
Market uncertainty and sharp mill price increases continue to weigh on the European coil market. Buyers across spot, annual, and index contracts are resisting the proposed hikes and postponing purchasing decisions.
At the Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart this week, attended by Kallanish, producers presented higher price levels; however, no new commitments were finalised. According to market sources, steelmakers are seeking increases of around €100/tonne ($117/t) for new automotive contracts or proposing revised pricing structures with higher extras on indexed contracts.
While annual and indexed customers appear open to moderate increases, they are unwilling to meet the full extent of the requested increases. Producers meanwhile remain firm and unwilling to compromise.
Some producers are currently refraining from offering HRC prices, while others are quoting between €620-630/t base delivered for December delivery and €640-650/t for January.
The overall sentiment at Blechexpo was marked by uncertainty regarding the outlook for the European steel value chain. Participants pointed to Germany’s weak economic growth and the lack of recovery in downstream consumption as key concerns. Steel processors at the event confirmed that price increases for coil derivatives remain insignificant. Many consider producers’ ambitions to implement substantial hikes as unrealistic and unsupported by the supply/demand balance.
Coil buyers at the fair expected consumption to remain subdued through the first half of 2026. With the automotive and white goods sectors still struggling and several facilities across Europe idled or closing, steel processors see little potential for a rebound in steel demand in Q4 and next year.
One steel processor pointed out that the loss of competitiveness of downstream sectors will become palpable in the coming months. European coil prices will rise further, due to protectionist measures. However, Turkish buyers will continue to secure competitively priced coil from Asian suppliers, enabling them to produce lower-cost downstream products. This dynamic is expected to significantly challenge European steel processors and manufacturers, who risk losing global market share and export competitiveness.
Major buyers meanwhile continue sourcing material from Asia, which remains competitive against European asking prices even after including all import-related costs and duties. Lower Asian market values remain the key reference, with Chinese HRC prices being the global benchmark. When accounting for approximately €60/t in CBAM costs, other duties, and logistics, HRC prices from China may reach around €600-610/t cfr Europe, undermining the upward price momentum in the regional market, sources believe.
One steel processor noted that 2025 has been a challenging year, with the company managing to repay investments but reporting disappointing financial results. Another coil buyer said that, given current Chinese price levels, he expects European HRC prices to reach around €630/t base delivered by mid to late Q1 2026. A further market participant added that the trajectory of European prices will largely depend on the implementation schedule of the new safeguard measure.
Natalia Capra France
Blechexpo: European coil players debate extent of hikes
The European Commission’s proposal to impose new safeguard measures against steel imports is encouraging domestic mills to bring up prices to above €600/tonne ($696), despite sustained market weakness.
Most observers at Wednesday’s Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart said the safeguards and subsequent price hike attempts are not really spurring real demand. However, they acknowledged the necessity for mills to raise prices and want to believe an uptrend is possible. At least, “a slight upward price correction in the fourth quarter seems likely now that the market is finding more calm and confidence,” one Dutch manager told Kallanish during the event.
A German manager put a figure to it, saying mills would not release any more volumes of hot rolled coil in the fourth quarter for less than €600/t ex-works. It was suggested by some market participants last week that some residual volumes were still available for less, but that option seems to be exhausted now. He sees €600 as being a psychological mark that will not be undercut.
A Dutch buyer concurred, noting that “mills will actually try to get way more than €600”.
One mill group manager also put a clear figure to what his company is seeking to obtain in the first quarter of 2026. “We had left the market and did not make any offers for one week,” he said. “Now, we are asking for €640-650/t delivered, depending on the region and on the transport costs.”
While this is similar to the offers heard from another mill group, the German manager does not see a coordinated move by the mills, but rather believes price hikes were inevitable. “Prior to the Blechexpo, it was already a common assumption the fair would confirm the price hike efforts,” he concluded.
Christian Koehl Germany