European coil and green steel round-up: Northwest European coil largely unchanged, buyers focused on CBAM
European coil prices moved sideways in the week to 21 November as market participants digested recently leaked benchmark values for calculating Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) costs, to hit the market from January.
In Northwest Europe, coil prices were said to be largely stable. Mills have sold sufficient volumes to carry them into the new year, no longer pressured to give discounts in chasing what little demand is present in the market on high inventory levels, and subdued end-consumption dynamics.
Offers for hot-rolled coil (HRC) ex-works Northwest Europe were reported at around EUR620-650/t on an ex-works and delivered basis, though market participants on both sides of the market report volumes trading between EUR600-620/t ex-works.
Only the region’s re-roller was heard to be offering outside the above range, at EUR610-620/t delivered, the equivalent of around EUR580/t ex-works.
Volumes traded were said to be thin given the positioning of mills and buyers, both taking time to better understand this week’s clarifications to CBAM cost methodologies and potential impact.
Despite that, import offers were still reported for shipment to Northwest European ports, issued on a CBAM-inclusive basis.
McCloskey exclusively detailed leaked draft provisions informing the calculation on potential CBAM costs, which are generally not well understood by the market, both due to the complexity of relevant formulae, and the late stage at which calculation details have become more visible.
For example, a CBAM-inclusive offer for HRC ex-Indonesia, when calculated on the latest leaked benchmark and default values, could incur additional costs above EUR2.5m on a volume of 5,000 t. Additional cost calculations on said values generate a per ton value of over EUR550/t.
The majority of importers are very unhappy with both the high nature of some default values, and the massive increase it threatens for assumed risk profiles on imported material offered, and already on the water. One Northwest European trader estimated that at least 500,000 t of imported HRC would be customs cleared in December, to escape potential CBAM liabilities once the instrument enters its definitive stage from January.
Steelmakers are also criticizing the leaked default values, primarily as relates to China, which has a default emissions value of 1.75t CO2e/t for HRC, compared to the EU’s own 2.05t CO2e/t. If imported under the latest blast furnace route default benchmark, this would impose additional costs of just over EUR30/t, one of the lowest costs within the CBAM framework, potentially incentivizing rather than discouraging ex-China sourcing.
In Italy, similar dynamics were reported, with a static domestic market, and import offers ex-Turkey, and ex-Taiwan, China, heard at EUR620/t DDP.
“The market is basically at standstill,” said an Italian service center. “Buyers are avoiding imports unless offered on a DDP basis, and traders would rather hold the volumes they have until prices settle.”
Domestic price indications were reported by sources as ranging between EUR580-620/t ex-works, with transactional activity focused toward the bottom end of said range.
Green Steel
The green steel market remains focused on project applications while the value chain digests this week’s regulatory revelations, with spot HRC premiums at a stable EUR70-80/t to the distribution sector.
Low-carbon material for projects is offered at much higher premiums – as high as EUR300/t – though these prices remain unworkable for EU stockholders.
McCloskey’s reduced carbon market reflects this stability, currently standing at EUR44.48/t
| Weekly European steel coil | |||||
| EUR/t | Term | 21-Nov-25 | Change | ||
| Weekly Northwest Europe steel coil | |||||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 615.00 | -5.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works CRC | EX-WORKS | 710.00 | -5.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HDG | EX-WORKS | 720.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Weekly South Europe steel coil | |||||
| Italy ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 585.00 | 5.00 | ||
| South Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 560.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Source: McCloskey by OPIS. | © 2025 Dow Jones Energy Limited. | ||||
| Weekly green steel | |||
| EUR/t | Term | 21-Nov-25 | Change |
| Green Northwest Europe HRC premium (scopes 1-3 CO2 under 0.8t) | 70.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-3) | EX-WORKS | 685.00 | -5.00 |
| Green HRC premium (scopes 1-2 CO2 under 0.5t) | 70.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-2) | EX-WORKS | 685.00 | -5.00 |
| Green HRC reduced carbon price (scopes 1-3) | 44.48 | 0.03 | |
Maria Tanatar Associate Director, Steel and Green Steel
Benjamin Steven Journalist, Steel
European heavy plate round-up: EU plate prices set to rise on CBAM impact, demand recovery
Bullish sentiment prevailed in the European heavy plate market in the week to 21 November supported by an expected increase in slab costs related to implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and anticipated demand recovery in 2026.
The leaked draft provisional benchmarks for the CBAM show that the potential duties on imported slab can be much higher then originally anticipated. Re-rollers also might need to substitute some of the origins with alternatives as default values for some countries were higher then expected and the needed certification of emissions of exporters would take time.
Notably, some sources said that slab imports from Indonesia and Turkey might go down until the actual emission values for the mills are determined. A distributor also suggested that the market is discussing the possibility of Germany’s Hüttenwerke Krupp Mannesmann (HKM) taking over part of the market share of imported slab.
Adding pressure on re-rollers, supply of imported slab will be reduced following implementation of the 19th round of sanctions against Russia adopted in the EU in late October including measures against Evraz PLC, a UK-headquartered company with core steel manufacturing and mining assets in Russia.
Suppliers from Asia and Brazil have been offering slab at $500-520/t CFR Italy, not including CBAM duties.
Apart from pressure from the cost side, some price support is expected to come from anticipated demand improvement next year, particularly higher steel consumption from infrastructure projects.
“All market participants hope to see an increased demand, stimulated by German infrastructure and defence, which will require a lot of infrastructure as well as investments,” a German service center said, adding some hope to see this as soon as the second quarter, but most in the second half of 2026.
Some sources also suggested that the distributors do not have sufficient stocks to cover needs for the first quarter of next year, and that they will have to resume purchases soon.
Italian re-rollers, more exposed to the rise of export slab costs, have been aiming to get EUR650-680/t ex-works next year. Latest deals for December rolling plate, however, have been settled at EUR630-650/t ex-works. The Italian mills have closed December order books.
In Northwest Europe, German mills have been offering heavy plate at EUR700-750/t ex-works. But some of the country’s mills have been ready to accept prices of EUR670-680/t ex-works.
A Scandinavian integrated steelmaker has been offering plate at EUR720/t ex-works.
Offers from Poland and Czech Republic have been heard at EUR680-690/t ex-works, with mills able to give discounts of up to EUR30/t, according to some sources.
| Weekly European heavy plate, slab and green steel | |||||
| Unit | Term | 21-Nov-25 | Change | ||
| Weekly heavy plate | |||||
| Northwest Europe ex-works heavy plate | EUR/t | EX-WORKS | 700.00 | -10.00 | |
| Germany delivered heavy plate (Northwest Europe) | EUR/t | DEL | 730.00 | 0.00 | |
| Italy ex-works heavy plate | EUR/t | EX-WORKS | 645.00 | 0.00 | |
| Weekly steel slab | |||||
| Italy CFR slab | $/t | CFR | 510.00 | 0.00 | |
| Weekly green steel | |||||
| Green heavy plate premium (scopes 1-3 CO2 under 1t) | EUR/t | 25.00 | 0.00 | ||
Maria Tanatar Associate Director, Steel and Green Steel
Benjamin Steven Journalist, Steel