EU HRC market stable; more DDP CBAM-accounted offers emerge
Demand for imported steel hot-rolled coil remained flat in the week to Wednesday November 26, with the market’s appetite for coil still subdued amid prolonged regulatory uncertainty, sources told Fastmarkets.
The market is still awaiting more clarity on the potential costs associated with the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and how that might impact imports, sources said.
According to a distributor, there is “no demand” in the market now and more change can be expected from next year when CBAM and other trade regulations are set to come into force.
Meanwhile, a trader source said that market participants are “not looking to take risks” at the moment, adding that they will “wait to see” what changes in the market.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil import, cfr main port Southern Europe was €475-520 ($551-603) per tonne on Wednesday, unchanged week on week.
HRC offers from Asia for January shipment were reported around €475-500 per tonne CFR, without CBAM costs.
Another offer was reported around €475-520 per tonne CFR, without CBAM costs.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil import, cfr main port Northern Europe was €480-520 per tonne on Wednesday, also unchanged week on week.
An offer from Indonesia was reported around €490-495 per tonne CFR, without CBAM costs.
Buyers estimated achievable prices at €480-520 per tonne CFR, without CBAM costs.
Considering the market’s need for clarity on CBAM-related costs on imports, Fastmarkets launched a DDP import steel price assessment for flat steel products on Wednesday.
The introduction of new DDP assessments for imported flat steel in Europe is intended to offer clearer insight for market participants as they navigate the changing trade landscape shaped by CBAM.
By factoring in the influence of CBAM-related costs, these assessments aim to mirror how the spot market is likely to function from 2026 onward, reflecting underlying supply-and-demand dynamics. As a result, CBAM certificate costs may not always be fully priced in or passed through in spot DDP transactions.
Accordingly, the published prices do not incorporate any explicit, calculated CBAM certificate cost. Such costs can vary significantly across data submissions due to differences in brand and origin, the timing of customs clearance and applicable CBAM cost at that moment and the share of carbon costs already covered in the country of origin.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil import, ddp Southern Europe was €580-620 per tonne on Wednesday.
A deal from Turkey was reported at €620 per tonne DDP.
A range of offers from Asia — notably from South Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia — was reported around €580-610 per tonne DDP.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil import, ddp Northern Europe was €595-620 per tonne on Wednesday.
An offer from Turkey was reported at €620 per tonne DDP.
An offer from South Korea was also reported at €620 per tonne DDP.
An offer was reported at €595 per tonne DDP for Indonesian material.
Buyers, however, pointed out that they were avoiding bookings from Indonesia and India due to high default emissions values for those countries revealed in leaked CBAM drafts.
“We have some Indonesian offers with CBAM partially included risks at sellers’ side; but with CBAM costs at over €500 per tonne estimated for Indonesia under default CO2 values, there is a risk of such deals to be revoked due to force majeure,” a buyer in Italy said.
Steel heavy plate prices edge higher supported by persistent expectations of CBAM costs
Steel heavy plate prices in Italy edged higher in the week to Thursday November 27, supported by widespread expectations of added Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) costs, while prices in Northern Europe remained steady, sources told Fastmarkets.
Italy
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel domestic plate, 8-40mm, exw Southern Europe was €650-660 ($753- 764) per tonne on Thursday, up by €10 per tonne from €640-650 per tonne on November 20.
Commodity-grade steel plate was on offer in Italy at €650 per tonne ex-works, sources said, with limited volumes sold at that level for January delivery – although the deals were for smaller volumes, below Fastmarkets’ minimum tonnage specification.
Market participants were bullish and one source said the Italian rerollers were likely to target even higher prices in the coming weeks.
Northern Europe
Northern European heavy plate prices, meanwhile, remained flat in the week to Thursday, amid slow trading, sources said.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel domestic plate, 8-40mm, exw Northern Europe was €670-700 per tonne on Thursday, stable week on week.
But deals for regional imports were reported at €710-720 per tonne CPT.
Imports
Steel plate imports from East Asia were on offer in Italy and Germany at around €680 per tonne DDP for S235 and S275 material.
Leaked European Parliament draft on safeguards backs 50% steel over-quota duty, adds Russia/Belarus ban, quota carryover
A leaked draft report from the European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade shows lawmakers preparing to back the European Commission’s plan for a 50% over-quota duty on steel imports, while allowing quarterly carry-over of quota volumes, Fastmarkets learned on Thursday November 27.
The draft text from November 24, which has not yet been adopted and remains subject to amendment, confirms that tariff-free steel import quotas would continue to be based on 2013 reference volumes, so about 50% below currently available allocation, with any out-of-quota shipments facing the sharply higher 50% duty, in line with the first draft, published on October 7.
Details on country-specific allocations – one of the most critical updates the market has been waiting for – have not yet been revealed.
Quota carryover proposed in draft
In contrast to existing safeguard rules, the leaked draft proposes allowing unused quarterly quotas to be carried over into the next quarter, a change industry participants said could ease volatility in certain product categories.
In the latest review of existing steel safeguards in March 2025, the carry-over of unused quarterly tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) into the next period for categories under significant import pressure was revealed, Fastmarkets reported.
In the new leaked draft, one of the suggested amendments read: “To ensure continuity and to avoid supply disruptions, carry-over of unused quarterly tariff quota volumes to the following quarter should be permitted. This would provide the necessary operational flexibility while maintaining the overall effectiveness of the measure.”
Stricter origin documentation, “melt and pour” requirement
The document reconfirms the Commission’s “melt and pour” origin verification requirement for all covered imports.
Notably, under the draft, the EU will require proof of the steel’s “melt and pour” origin – meaning the country where the steel was actually melted in a furnace and then cast into its first solid form. In particular, “solid form” refers to the steel’s initial shape after cooling, such as a slab, billet, ingot or any other early-stage block of steel.
In simple terms, it is the place where the steel first becomes a “solid piece”, before any later rolling, coating, cutting or other processing. The rule is intended to stop steel made in certain countries from being relabeled after minor processing elsewhere.
The draft also expands verification requirements by listing multiple forms of acceptable evidence, including mill certificates, invoices, delivery notes and long-term supplier declarations. The draft also calls on the Commission to develop guidelines to limit administrative burden, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Besides this, in one of the most significant additions, the Parliament text introduces a provision that would automatically prohibit all products made from steel melted and poured in Russia or Belarus, making such shipments ineligible for quota access and subject to immediate rejection at EU borders.
Exemptions
The draft also proposes that imports originating in Ukraine be fully exempt from both quotas and duties for as long as the country faces an “exceptional and immediate security situation,” i.e. Russia’s invasion of the region, extending the EU’s existing autonomous trade preferences.
Also, as in the Commission’s initial proposal, the draft confirms that Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein would remain outside the quota and duty mechanism.
Scope reviews accelerated
While the Commission had suggested reviewing product coverage every two years, lawmakers propose annual scope reviews and annual public implementation reports detailing quota usage and volumes subject to the 50% duty. They also call for biennial evaluations of global overcapacity trends and impacts on EU steelmakers and downstream users.
The leaked text repeatedly stresses that the future instrument must remain fully WTO-consistent and be designed to address “trade distortions caused by global excess capacity,” with the long-term objective of restoring conditions for more open trade.
Next steps
Market participants stressed that the document is a draft parliamentary position and may change considerably before coming to a final vote. It must still pass through committee adoption, plenary approval and subsequent negotiations with the EU Council before entering into force.
However, several sources said the core elements of the proposal – including reduced TRQs and a 50% out-of-quota duty – are likely to remain intact.
If ultimately approved, the new system would replace the EU’s existing steel safeguard measures upon their expiry at the end of June 2026.
The exact date of the new trade regime coming into force still remains subject to debate.
European Steel Association Eurofer was lobbying for early introduction of the new regime.
In addition, earlier this year, several EU member states pushed for early termination of the current safeguard measures, urging that the new framework be introduced as early as the beginning of 2026.
Market sources, however, believe the deadline of January 1 is not realistic, since the draft needs to go through a “complex negotiations process” before entering into force.
“Procedures in the trilogue take quite some time,” a source in the EU steel market said.
Several market sources suggested that April 1 was a “feasible” deadline for adoption of the new trade regime, while the Commission declined to comment on the timeline.
In terms of market effects, sources expected the new trade regime to be even more disruptive than the impending Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
“The imports will be reduced by 50%. If the new regime comes into force as of April 1, this means the window to buy new imports without risks of facing a new 50% out-of-quota duty expires in January 2026, if not sooner. This consistent lack of clarity on CBAM and safeguards results in rumors driving the market – complete chaos,” a buyer source in Italy said.
Rebar prices keep climbing in Italy amid reported limited availability
Rebar prices in Italy continue to move on upward trajectory amid reported limited availability of the material from local suppliers on Thursday November 27.
“The current environment is characterized by a significant shortage of inventory at steel mills, a factor that inevitably impacts the ability to easily withdraw large quantities of material. This limited availability is supporting the maintenance of price levels. We believe this situation is prompting some operators to take advantage of the situation to exert upward pressure on price levels” one buyer source said.
Another buyer source said that upward price movements were mainly due to the fact that mills were trying to improve their earnings before the end of the year, while demand is moderate.
“The demand is so so, November is not an unforgettable selling month. Winter is arriving, and customers don’t want to fill their stocks. Maybe the price increase and the limited availability are due to Pittini’s incident, but I’m informed that the problem is now fished, and they have restarted production,” the source said.
Pittini Group’s flagship Ferriere Nord long steel plant at Osoppo in northeastern Italy was damaged by a fire in late October, which led to the shutdown of the facility’s electric-arc furnace (EAF).
A source at the mill confirmed that the equipment is fixed. “If everything works, we should be able to restart this week,” they told Fastmarkets on Wednesday November 26.
The most recent offers of 8-40 mm bars from local suppliers came at €595-600(689-695) per tonne ex- works.
Nevertheless, bookings were heard in the wide range of €550-585 per tonne ex-works, depending on the region. Low end prices traditionally refer to the north of the country, while upper end levels to the south.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar) domestic, exw Italy was €550-585 per tonne on Wednesday, up from €540-570 per tonne on November 19 and from €540-560 per tonne on November 5.
Orgalim warns EU’s new steel trade measures could cause massive cost surge for downstream industries
Orgalim, representing Europe’s technology industries, has issued a strong warning against the European Commission’s newly proposed steel trade regulation, arguing that the measure would trigger severe cost increases for downstream manufacturers.
The organization stated that the draft regulation, introduced to counter global overcapacity pressures in the steel sector, risks inflicting major economic damage on EU steel-using industries by restricting access to essential materials and raising administrative and tariff burdens.
According to Orgalim, the new proposal aims to support EU steel producers but would put strain on small and medium-sized enterprises. The organization warned that the measure comes at a time when Europe’s technology industries are already experiencing downturns, including a 5.6 percent decline in turnover, a 1.2 percent drop in employment, and a 3.2 percent reduction in investments in 2024.
Orgalim noted that existing steel safeguard measures, in place since 2018, already pose challenges by limiting access to competitively priced steel, constraining availability of specialized grades, and increasing administrative demands on importers. These conditions have contributed to average EU iron and steel prices rising by more than 40 percent since the introduction of provisional safeguards.
Key elements of the new regulation
The proposed regulation was described by Orgalim as “far more restrictive” than the safeguards currently in force. It includes a 47 percent cut in total import-quota volumes, a doubling of the out-of-quota tariff from 25 percent to 50 percent, and the elimination of the carry-over mechanism for unused quotas. The draft also introduces a mandatory “melted and poured” origin-verification requirement, which Orgalim warns would significantly increase documentation and compliance pressure for importers.
Cost impact: out-of-quota tariffs could surge by up to 1,200%
Orgalim’s analysis suggests that, with the new measures in place, annual out-of-quota tariff costs could reach €5.4 billion, a 660 percent increase compared with the estimated €700 million paid in 2024. Under more realistic assumptions, such as importers being able to use only half of their quota allocations, the costs could rise further to €9.3 billion, representing a 1,200 percent increase.
The organization also predicted that reduced import competition would lead to additional domestic price increases, further raising costs for downstream sectors already struggling with high energy prices, supply-chain disruptions, and weakened demand.
Cumulative burden from other EU policies
Orgalim stressed that the impact of the proposal cannot be viewed in isolation. At the same time, downstream industries are facing major regulatory shifts through the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the phase-out of free ETS allowances, and new sustainability obligations under the upcoming Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation (ESPR) Delegated Act on steel.
According to Orgalim, the European Commission’s impact assessment fails to fully capture the combined cumulative burden of these parallel measures, significantly underestimating the risks for downstream competitiveness.
Orgalim’s proposed amendments and call for a multilateral approach
To mitigate the negative impact if the regulation moves forward, Orgalim has proposed eight key amendments designed to maintain industrial competitiveness, ensure access to essential steel grades, and reduce administrative pressure.
These include exempting critical product categories, maintaining the 25 percent tariff, setting adequate quotas where EU production is insufficient, avoiding disruptions to UK and Swiss supply chains, administering quotas annually, reinstating carry-over, simplifying “melted and poured” rules, and conducting annual evaluations of the regulation’s effects.
Orgalim concluded by urging EU policymakers to halt the current proposal and instead adopt a plurilateral approach with like-minded partner countries. The organization argued that coordinated action through aligned tariffs, quotas, and carbon-pricing frameworks is the only effective way to address global steel overcapacity without imposing disproportionate harm on Europe’s technology industries. Without major changes, Orgalim warned the proposal will cause “lasting harm”, undermining competitiveness, innovation and industrial employment across Europe.
Romanian longs prices stable, but CBAM uncertainty exerts upward pressure despite soft demand
Romanian long steel prices have remained stable over the past week, with both rebar and wire rod offers largely unchanged from previous levels.
However, market participants report that some suppliers have begun testing slightly higher prices, driven mainly by CBAM-related uncertainty and expectations of increased import costs. Despite these upward attempts, overall buying activity remains weak, as local demand continues to struggle due to liquidity constraints, delayed projects and cautious purchasing behavior. Traders note that, without a meaningful improvement in domestic consumption, any upward price push is unlikely to gain sustained momentum.
“Although there are initial attempts to raise prices, I doubt the market will accept these higher levels. With colder weather and the end of the year approaching, demand is slowing further and buyers are becoming increasingly cautious. It is also concerning that some sellers are using CBAM-related uncertainty to justify price increases, as this measure offers little benefit to end-users and may further discourage potential investment,” a trader said, SteelOrbis
Currently, domestic rebar prices remain unchanged. The sole producer continues to offer at €550-555/mt ex-works, and spot traders keep levels at €550-565/mt ex-warehouse, similar to last week. Attempts by some traders to raise prices to €570-575/mt ex-warehouse have seen no interest, as buyers still find discounted material at €535-545/mt ex-warehouse.
Wire rod prices also remain stable, with traders continuing to quote €560-570/mt ex-warehouse amid weak demand.
Meanwhile, in the import market, upward price movement has begun to appear, particularly from EU suppliers, mainly due to the CBAM situation. However, because local demand remains weak and stocks are considered sufficient, most Romanian buyers are only purchasing medium-sized lots from nearby countries in line with needs. According to market participants, the Bulgarian supplier has raised its rebar offers to €580-600/mt CPT, up from €570-580/mt CPT previously. Among non-EU suppliers, Egyptian mills have kept their prices unchanged, continuing to offer rebar at €485-490/mt CFR and wire rod at €490-495/mt CFR. Likewise, Turkish suppliers have maintained stable pricing over the past week, supported by firmer scrap levels, with offers standing at €495-510/mt CFR, based on an exchange rate of €1 = $1.16 and estimated freight costs of €15-20/mt.
European HRC trading at near standstill amid ample stocks, CBAM uncertainty
Trade activity in HRC market in Europe has slowed to a near halt as most buyers have not been rushing to replenish stocks given sufficient levels of stocks, while sentiment has remained cautious.
Besides, most distributors claim that they are supplied through the end of 2025 and some even into early 2026, meaning the market is not likely to see fresh restocking before December. Meanwhile, the import HRC market has remained under pressure from the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Although more traders have been proposing DDP-based contracts assuming the CBAM risks, buyers are still uneasy about the chance of prices rising.
More specifically, local mills in northern Europe have kept targeting €630-650/mt ex-works for new orders for January and February deliveries, the same as last week. However, according to sources, the tradable price levels for January delivery coils have been estimated at €610-620/mt ex-works for mainly January delivery, up by €10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week.
Meanwhile, in Italy, while mills have been targeting €600-630/mt for January delivery, the same as last week, the tradable price level for January delivery is still estimated at €590-600/mt ex-works. According to sources, several bookings have been voiced for December delivery at €580-590/mt ex-works, though Italian mills are already largely sold out for December delivery.
In the import segment, indicative offer prices for HRC have remained at €475-520/mt CFR, while HRC import offers including CBAM costs on DDP basis have been voiced at €580-600/mt levels, depending on the supplier, up by €20/mt on the lower end of the range week on week.
More specifically, import offers on CFR basis, excluding CBAM costs, have been heard for ex-India HRC at $570-575/mt CFR, which translates to €490-495/mt CFR. Besides, offers for ex-Indonesia HRC have settled at €475-490/mt CFR, mainly the same as last week.
In the meantime, offers for ex-Turkey and ex-Taiwan HRC have been heard at €600/mt DDP, duty included, mainly the same as last week, including CBAM costs, compared to €580-600/mt DDP last week. Offers for ex-South Korea have been voiced at €580-600/mt DDP Italy. “We are curious whether there’s even any quota left for Q1 2026. Most believe Turkey is definitely already overfilled, and, given the current market mood, it wouldn’t be any surprise if other origins are as well,” a market sources told SteelOrbis.
Besides, several offers from different Asian HRC suppliers have been voiced in northern Europe at around €595-600/mt DDP.
According to sources across Europe, the launch of CBAM has been overshadowed by a patchwork of unclear information, effectively forcing buyers to navigate import choices with their eyes closed. There is a widespread expectation that the final stage of implementation will push the system toward greater use of real emissions measurements instead of default estimates, but the schedule for this transition remains undefined.