EU Steel Distribution: Stability holds as price expectations firm up

The latest EUROMETAL Market Sentiment Survey for January 2026 confirms a market that has entered the new year with greater stability but limited momentum.

While current activity remains broadly unchanged and inventories continue to be managed cautiously, price expectations have consolidated at positive levels, suggesting that sentiment is gradually improving on the pricing side, even as demand fundamentals remain weak.

Based on responses from around 200 industry participants, the survey highlights a sector that is no longer deteriorating, but still waiting for clearer signals of recovery.

Current activity remains broadly stable

The assessment of current activity shows little change compared with the final months of 2025. Activity levels remains at the neutral line, but the absence of further decline confirms that the market has stabilised after the volatility seen earlier in 2025. This prolonged period of flat activity points to a market that has found a temporary equilibrium, albeit at subdued levels.

Near-term outlook improves slightly
Expectations for activity in the next quarter show a modest improvement compared with late 2025. While confidence remains fragile, the January results suggest that pessimism has eased somewhat, with fewer respondents expecting a further deterioration. This cautious improvement reflects hopes that demand conditions may gradually normalise as 2026 progresses, although visibility remains limited.

Inventory strategies remain defensive
Stock volume expectations continue to signal disciplined inventory management. Most distributors expect stock levels to remain broadly stable over the next three months, with no indication of aggressive restocking. This reflects ongoing risk aversion and a preference for flexibility in a market still characterised by weak demand and uncertain order books.

Price expectations consolidate at positive levels
Price expectations remain the most positive indicator in the January survey. After improving steadily in the second half of 2025, sentiment on prices has now consolidated clearly above the neutral line. This suggests that a growing share of distributors expect prices to hold firm or increase moderately in the coming months.

While not yet indicative of a strong upward cycle, this trend may reflect tighter supply conditions, lower import availability, or the anticipation of gradual restocking once demand stabilises.

Key takeaway
The January 2026 survey confirms a steel distribution market that has moved out of decline and into a phase of stabilisation, but without a clear demand-driven recovery. Activity remains subdued and inventories are tightly controlled, underscoring continued caution across the sector.

At the same time, the consolidation of positive price expectations stands out as a potentially important signal. If demand fundamentals begin to improve, this could mark the early stages of a more constructive market environment in the months ahead. Until then, prudence and short-term visibility continue to define sentiment across Europe’s steel distribution sector.

This analysis is based on the EUROMETAL Market Sentiment Survey, reflecting the views of approximately 200 industry participants for January 2026.

EUROMETAL at UAHE Webinar on CBAM Definitive Phase

EUROMETAL Vice-President Fernando Espada participated yesterday as a speaker in a webinar on the definitive phase of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), organised by the UAHE – Unión de Almacenistas de Hierros de España.

The webinar brought together around 60 participants from the Spanish steel distribution sector, who had the opportunity to deepen their understanding of the CBAM mechanism, its effects and consequences for steel importers and downstream operators. The session provided an overview of how the mechanism works, how CBAM costs are calculated, and how the system is expected to evolve over time.

EUROMETAL warmly thanks Fernando Espada for his time and UAHE for the invitation and the excellent organisation of this timely and informative event.

India-EU agreement cuts car tariffs as EU eyes 4 million vehicle market

The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) welcomed the conclusion of negotiations for a free trade agreement between the European Union and India, with the association saying Jan. 27 that the successful end to negotiations is a “landmark moment in global trade relations” as it will help European automobile exports enter a market of 4 million passenger cars that, until now, has been protected by import tariffs of up to 110%.

This is the largest trade agreement that both the EU and India have concluded, with both sides expected to benefit strongly from it, including the EU automotive industry as well as steel and iron sectors.

According to the EU-India Free Trade Agreement fact sheet, the EU exported vehicles valued at Eur1.6 billion, with tariffs expected to see a gradual reduction in customs duties for vehicles to 10% under a quota of 250,000 vehicles per year and complete tariff elimination for car parts after 5-10 years. Europe exported iron ore and steel valued at Eur1.5 billion, with current tariffs up to 22% that will reach 0% for almost all products under the agreement.

As reported in ACEA’s statement, the trade agreement still comes with restrictions such as quota limitations and residual tariffs that will limit the potential benefits to some extent. However, a full assessment of the detailed terms of the deal will begin once the texts are published in the coming weeks.

The potential for the car sector is high, as reported by the VDA, the German car association. In India, there are 34.3 cars per 1,000 inhabitants, which given India’s population represents a sizable number of cars, but still leaves room for growth compared to other industrialized nations. For comparison: Germany has 582.4 cars per 1,000 inhabitants, the EU has 585.3, the US has 877.6, and China has 137.4.

The Indian government has also set targets to increase the share of electric vehicles to 30% by 2030 for passenger cars, 70% for trucks and buses, and 80% for two- and three-wheelers.

Notably, the annex EC document shows that in the agreement, the EU and India have agreed on rules of origin that ensure only products that have been significantly processed in one of the parties can benefit from the tariff preferences of the agreement. This will help prevent other countries from simply exporting to India and re-exporting to the EU to benefit from the tariffs.

Looking at steel, according to the latest European Steel Association document, in the first eight months of 2025, the main origins for finished steel imports into the EU market were: Turkey, South Korea, China, India, Ukraine, Taiwan and Indonesia. The main destinations for EU steel exports were the United Kingdom, the United States, Turkey, Switzerland and India.

As India is the second-largest steel producer after China and one of the main exporters of steel into the EU, with its steel produced primarily by blast furnaces, it currently faces headwinds from the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. The Indian commerce ministry said Jan. 27 that no exemptions were extended to India under the CBAM as part of the free trade pact. However, the EU has assured that if any future flexibilities are granted to most-favored nations, India’s steel exports will be taken into account for potential exemptions.

Author: Annalisa Villa

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EU car sales rise in 2025 as hybrid-electric vehicles increase 14%

New EU car registrations rose 1.8% year over year in 2025 to 10.82 million units, with hybrid-electric vehicles increasing by 13.7% to 3.74 million unit, giving them a 34.5% market share, data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) showed Jan. 27.

Despite the rise in total new registrations, they remained well below pre-pandemic levels.

Battery-electric cars accounted for 17.4% of the EU market, as they demonstrated a strong, 29.9% year-over-year rise to 1.58 million units, while plug-in hybrid units showed an even sharper increase of 33.4% to 1.05 million units, with a market share of 9.4%.

In contrast, the combined market share of petrol and diesel vehicles fell to 35.5% in 2025, from 45.2% in 2024. Petrol vehicles dropped to a 26.6% share of the market at 2.88 million units, from 33.3% a year earlier, while diesel registrations fell 24.2% to 960,024 units, an 8.9% share.

December 2025 saw a 51% surge in battery-electric cars and a 36.7% rise for plug-in hybrid units, while hybrid-electric recorded a 5.8% increase.

The shift reflects changing consumer preferences that could significantly affect European refined product demand, particularly gasoline and diesel consumption, as well as the need for battery metals on top of carbon steel, the main materials of vehicle production, with approximately 900 to 1,400 kilograms of steel used for an average passenger car.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Jan. 26 domestic hot-rolled coil in Northern Europe at Eur640/mt ($766/mt) ex-works Ruhr and in Southern Europe at Eur630/mt ex-works Italy, both steady from the previous session.

Author: Annalisa Villa

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Swedish steelmaker SSAB sees higher demand, shipments in Q1 2026

Swedish steelmaker SSAB expects shipments to increase in the first quarter of 2026, compared with the previous quarter, driven by seasonal demand, according to its 2025 performance report released Jan. 28.

The company expects special steel shipments to be “significantly” higher quarter over quarter in Q1, with stable prices. SSAB Europe’s and SSAB Americas’s shipments are expected to be higher with prices “somewhat higher,” according to the company. Its special steels segment includes quenched, tempered and advanced high-strength steels.

For Q1, the company expects strong demand, particularly from the renewable energy sector in the EU and from the transmission and oil and gas sectors in the US.

SSAB estimates weak demand from the construction sector and uncertainty around automotive demand, the report said.

In Q4, production was relatively stable year over year and quarter over quarter, at 1.8 million metric tons of crude steel. Production was 7.54 million mt in 2025, compared with 7.35 million mt in 2024, according to the report.

Steel shipments were up 4% year over year and up 2.68% month over month to 1.51 million mt in Q4. Special steels were impacted by turbulence triggered by tariffs and trade barriers, but activity improved in the European market, according to SSAB.

Steel shipments in 2025 were 6.36 million mt in 2025, compared with 6.13 million mt in 2024.

SSAB’s push to green steel production continued in 2025, with investments made during the year executed according to plan, the company said.

Construction of a new electric arc furnace is underway at SSAB’s Oxelösund steel plant. The steelmaker also began building a high-efficiency mini-mill in its Luleå steel plant in the summer of 2025, with the production expected to start at the end of 2029.

The company underlined that SSAB’s transformation plan depends on the necessary infrastructure being in place on time, particularly regarding electricity supply, and there are currently pending appeals related to the power line to Oxelösund.

“Conversion involves the closure of the existing blast furnaces and coke plant. At the same time, most operations in Oxelösund, including the advanced rolling mill and unique Q&T lines that produce high-strength steel, will continue as before,” SSAB said in its report.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Northwest European hot-rolled coil carbon-accounted at Eur705/mt ex-works Ruhr Jan. 27, stable day over day. Platts assessed HRC in Northern Europe at Eur640/mt ex-works Ruhr and in Southern Europe at Eur630/mt ex-works Italy, both unchanged day over day.

Author: Annalisa Villa

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ArcelorMittal denied all allegations in the case related to its Ilva plants in Italy

ArcelorMittal has confirmed that it has been summoned by the Milan Court in connection with a lawsuit involving Acciaierie d’Italia SpA (ADI), which operates under Ilva SpA currently under Extraordinary Administration.

ArcelorMittal has stated that the allegations brought forward by the Extraordinary Commissioners of ADI have no legal or factual basis, stressing that the company will firmly defend its position before all competent authorities.

In its statement, ArcelorMittal categorically rejected the claims made in the lawsuit, which allege that the company misled ADI’s management and local authorities, caused the collapse of the plants, deliberately sought to “destroy” the company’s operations, and “looted” profits from Italy.

Within the scope of the lawsuit, ArcelorMittal is accused of having caused damages of approximately EUR 7 billion to ADI. The company stated that these allegations are entirely unfounded.

The company recalled that Acciaierie d’Italia Holding (ADIH), the parent company of ADI, has been operating under a joint and equal management structure with Invitalia, the investment arm of Italy’s Ministry of Economy and Finance, since 2021.

It was noted that Invitalia was appointed under a public–private partnership framework to relaunch the Ilva facilities, with the ultimate objective of transferring full ownership of ADI to the public sector.

ArcelorMittal emphasized its strong track record in turning around underperforming assets and stated that it has invested approximately EUR 2 billion in its Italian operations.

A significant portion of this investment, the company said, was allocated to the implementation of an extensive environmental plan required under Italy’s Integrated Environmental Authorization. ArcelorMittal stressed that substantial resources were devoted to meeting environmental obligations.

The company also rejected any claims of improper influence over local authorities, stating that all obligations were fulfilled in full compliance with the law.

ArcelorMittal noted that the situation deteriorated after the Italian government revoked criminal liability protection in 2019 for the implementation of the environmental plan.

According to the company, this decision exposed it to criminal risks and undermined the fundamental conditions of the acquisition. As a result, ArcelorMittal initiated its withdrawal from the lease agreement, which was later followed by the establishment of the joint management structure with Invitalia.

In its statement, ArcelorMittal said that hostile behavior, deliberate actions and negligence by Invitalia and Ilva, combined with inadequate and unlawful interventions by the Italian authorities, severely undermined the operating environment.

Despite presenting several restructuring proposals, the company claimed that Invitalia failed to meet its commitments throughout the process.

ArcelorMittal further noted that temporary legislative measures adopted in February 2024 enabled ADI to be placed under extraordinary administration, a move the company described as a de facto expropriation of its investments.

The company stated that these measures negatively affected production capacity, cash flow, and planned investments.

ArcelorMittal announced that it has initiated multiple legal proceedings in response to the damage suffered. In June 2025, the company filed an international arbitration case against the Republic of Italy.

The claim alleges unlawful expropriation, discriminatory and disproportionate treatment, and violations of the company’s legitimate expectations.

ArcelorMittal stated that its investments have been severely devalued as a result of these actions, that its European interests have been harmed, and that its total compensation claim exceeds EUR 1.8 billion.

Author: SteelRadar Editorial Team

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UK continues anti-dumping measures on Chinese flat-rolled products

The UK government has decided to extend the existing anti-dumping duty on flat-rolled products originating from China and maintain current measures.

According to the announcement published by the Trade Remedies Authority (TRA), these measures will remain in effect for five years from 30 January 2021.

Under the decision, the anti-dumping duty rates applied to flat-rolled products imported from China into the UK are also maintained. Products exported by Valin Group are subject to a 7.9% duty, while the rate for all other Chinese exporters remains at 24.0%. Products from Valin Group are processed under the A930 code, whereas other exporters are under the A999 supplementary code.

The measures cover hot-rolled and irregularly wound coil flat-rolled products made of iron, non-alloy steel, or alloy steel, excluding stainless steel. These products are classified under the UK Global Tariff codes 7213 10 00, 7213 20 00, 7213 91 10, 7213 91 20, 7213 91 41, 7213 91 49, 7213 91 70, 7213 91 90, 7213 99 10, 7213 99 90, 7227 10 00, 7227 20 00, 7227 90 10, 7227 90 50, and 7227 90 95.

Authorities stated that the decision was shaped by evaluations indicating that the UK flat-rolled industry would continue to suffer or experience recurring injury if anti-dumping measures ended. In this context, the current measures aim to preserve the competitiveness of domestic producers.

Author: SteelRadar Editorial Team

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Revista InfoAcero Enero 2026

Les enviamos la edición de ENERO de nuestra revista  InfoAcero

Destacamos a continuación algunos de sus contenidos:

  • Opinión – Dña. Meritxell Serrano – Junta Directiva  UAHE
  • Índice UAHE:  Evolución precios de aprovisionamiento Septiembre 2024 – Noviembre  2025.
  • Siderurgia:  2ª parte – Informe sobre perspectivas  4º trimestre – Eurofer
  • Formación UAHE: calendario de los primeros cursos de 2026
  • Eventos:  Assofermet-Eurometal, Milán (25,26 febrero) // BIEMH, Bilbao (2-6 marzo) // Steel Net Forum Iberia, Santander (27 y 28 abril)
  • Asociación – primeras conferencias del ciclo  “Perspectivas del sector siderúrgico
  • Colaboración RRHH – D. Agustín Barroso – Director  RRHH HIEMESA

European green steel spot market quiet, with buyers focusing on broader market challenges

The European market for green steel was “not a priority” for buyers in the week to Thursday January 29, with no fresh trades reported and a clear focus on broader market challenges, sources told Fastmarkets.
Those challenges include the implementation of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), upcoming changes to the trade regime and slow demand.

Trading in the spot market for green steel continued to be muted, with buyers more interested in securing long-term contracts for steel and raw materials produced with lower carbon emissions in anticipation of a pick-up in demand over the next few years.

Market participants said the European market for low-carbon steel was very much still a niche are, with the wider adoption of green steel across supply chains not expected to pick up until decarbonization accelerator policies, such as the Industrial Accelerator Act (IIA), come into force.

The IIA is expected to unlock green steel demand through public procurement and the final version of the Act is expected to be published in the end of February 2026.

“At present, only a few European flat steel producers are capable of manufacturing green steel with emissions below one tonne of CO2 per tonne of steel, without mass-balancing,” a mill source told Fastmarkets. “Additional projects are not expected to begin production until 2027-2028, which could lead to a supply bottleneck.”

On January 22, Swedish steelmaker SSAB and German defense and technology company Rheinmetall signed a letter of intent for the supply of fossil-free steel.

The collaboration will begin with deliveries of SSAB Zero, with volumes increasing over time. Future deliveries will also include SSAB Fossil-free steel produced using HYBRIT technology. Actual volumes were not disclosed.

SSAB Zero is ultra-low emissions steel produced from slabs manufactured at SSAB’s electric-arc furnace (EAF) facility in Iowa, in the US Midwest.

By the end of 2029, SSAB will be able to start green production at its Lulea facility on the northern coast of Sweden.

Fastmarkets’ methodology defines European green steel as “steel produced with Scope 1, 2 & 3 emissions at a maximum of 0.8 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of steel.”

Scope 1 refers to direct emissions, while Scope 2 and 3 are indirect emissions.

Premiums from major European steelmakers for green steel were reported at €200-300 ($239-359) per tonne, sources said.

But buyer estimates of the tradable value for green steel premiums were heard at €100-150 per tonne in the week to Thursday, with some sources reporting bids below €100 per tonne, while seller sources estimated the achievable premium at €150-180 per tonne.

As a result, Fastmarkets’ weekly assessment of the green steel, domestic, flat-rolled, differential to HRC index, exw Northern Europe, was flat at €100-150 per tonne on January 29.

Fastmarkets’ assessment of the flat steel reduced carbon emissions differential, exw Northern Europe, was €0-50 per tonne on Thursday, widening from  €40-50 per tonne seven days ago.

For steel produced in blast furnaces, with reduced carbon emissions of 1.4-1.8 tonnes of CO2 per 1 tonne of steel, offer for premiums were reported at €60-80 per tonne in the week to Thursday.

Buyer estimates came in at €0-50 per tonne.

A source on the sell side confirmed that, in some cases, deals could be done without a premium for marketing purposes.

“Very often, buyers book steel with reduced carbon emissions content simply because they need it to show on sustainability reports or for marketing purposes,” a distributor in Germany said. “In such cases, [buyers] will go for the cheaper option, rather than a significantly lower carbon emissions threshold.”

Another buyer source said that when a customer places a large order – such as one above 10,000 tonnes of hot-rolled coil – European steel producers might offer its reduced-carbon brands at no additional cost.

Author: Julia Bolotova

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European Parliament approves proposal to cut steel import quotas by 47%, impose 50% over-quota duty

The European Parliament voted in favor of a new trade regime for steel sector, expected to replace current safeguard measures, Fastmarkets heard in the week begun Monday January 26.
The global steel safeguards in place since 2018 under the World Trade Organization (WTO) will expire on June 30 this year.

In October 2025, the European Commission unveiled a proposal for sweeping reform of its steel import safeguards, suggesting cuts in tariff-free quotas by about 47% and imposing a steep 50% ad valorem duty on any volumes beyond the new threshold.

On January 22, the European Parliament’s International Trade Committee (ITC) fully supported the proposal with 36 votes in favor and 2 against, with 5 abstention, a press release on the parliament’s website said.

The approved text proposes lower import quotas, capping tariff-free steel imports at 18.3 million tonnes per year, down by 47% from 2024 quota levels.

Imports exceeding the quota, as well as steel products not covered by it, would be subject to a 50% customs duty.

The changes were intended to better shield EU steelmakers from global overcapacity and unfair trade practices, the Commission said earlier.

The goal was to help the struggling EU steel sector return to sustainable capacity utilization rates near 85%, up from the current average of 67% and to align import market shares with pre-crisis levels of 15% for flat and stainless steel and 5% for long steel, Fastmarkets understands.

The ITC members stressed that the new rules must comply with WTO requirements and called on the European Commission to closely monitor their effects, including assessing whether the list of products covered should be amended.

In addition, the proposed legislation would prohibit all steel imports from Russia and Belarus, extending existing trade restrictions to explicitly include steel products from both countries.

The proposal specified that import calculations should exclude all steel imports originating from the Russian Federation and Belarus, because these are already subject to import bans.

Finished steel imports from the two countries have, in fact, been banned since 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Belarus’s support for Russia.

But semi-finished steel products from Russia, notably slab, were still allowed to enter the EU until September 30, 2028.

In October 2022, the EU imposed quota limits to last for two years on Russian semi-finished steel products, in response to Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

In December 2023, the quotas were extended until September 30, 2028, following a lobby campaign led by rerollers in Italy, Belgium and the Czech Republic.

A source, familiar with the matter suggested that, under the new regulation, Russian steel slab might be completely banned before the quota period expired.

“[There is a] 90% chance that Russian slab will be banned as of July 1,” the source said.

The proposal still must be approved by the European Council. The ITC has also approved a decision to start negotiations with the Council, with the intention of reaching a deal on the final form of the bill in the spring, according to the European Parliament’s release.

Market effects, next steps
The European Parliaments did not specify the exact timeline for new measures coming into force, but sources familiar with the matter told Fastmarkets that it was likely that the new regime would come into force after safeguards expired in July 2026.

For traders, steel processors, tubemakers and other stakeholders reliant on steel imports in Europe, the shift to a new regime will tighten supply for certain grades, pushing up prices for in-quota steel.

“We are already dealing with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism [CBAM, which came fully came into force on January 1],” a German buyer said, “so imports are limited and [domestic steel] prices are rising. A new regime will cut import availability even more, which will be especially sensitive for cold-rolled and hot-dipped galvanized material.”

In a proposal seen by Fastmarkets, the quota for hot-rolled coil, category 1A, would be 5,198,712 tonnes per year. For reference, in 2025, the EU imported around 9.5 million tonnes of HRC, according to Global Trade Tracker statistics.

Domestic flat steel prices in Europe have been gradually increasing so far in January, mainly driven by CBAM.

Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was €655.83 ($784.92) per tonne on January 29, up by €0.83 per tonne from €655.00 per tonne the day before.

The index was up by €12.08 per tonne week on week and by €28.33 per tonne month on month.

Author: Julia Bolotova

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