EU Steel Distribution: cautious optimism amid stable market conditions as 2024 ends
The European Steel Distribution sector remains cautious and prepares for the challenges of early 2025.
The EUROMETAL Sentiment Survey for December 2024 reveals a largely neutral to mildly optimistic market sentiment, with respondents expecting stable stock levels, steady current activity, and modest improvements in future activity and prices. This suggests the steel and metals distribution sector is ending the year on a positive yet stable note, with confidence in the market’s trajectory heading into 2025.
Assessment of Current Activity
Responses for December 2024 reflect a continuation of trends observed in previous months, with activity levels remaining below the neutral line. This suggests that the sector continues to operate cautiously, with no signs of significant improvement.
However, compared to October and November, responses indicate a slight stabilization, suggesting that the current activity level has settled into a consistent, albeit subdued, pattern.
Future Activity Forecast
The sentiment for December 2024 is above the neutral line, suggesting cautious optimism for the next quarter.
In contrast to the months of August, September and October, where responses dipped below neutral, indicating some concerns or market uncertainties, December reflects greater confidence in upcoming activity.
Bubble size in December is moderate, suggesting a mix of opinions, but with the majority leaning toward a positive outlook.
Stock Position Forecast
Stock position responses for December show little change, reflecting a continued conservative inventory approach. Respondents indicate no significant plans for aggressive restocking, preferring to align stock levels with lower demand expectations. This reflects distributors’ cautious stance as they enter 2025 amid uncertain market conditions.
Price Development Expectations
December 2024 exhibits a clear upward tilt above neutrality, signaling expectations for moderate price increases in the coming months. The upward trajectory in December sentiment could reflect improving market conditions, such as stronger demand, reduced supply chain pressures, or other positive economic signals.
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This analysis is based on the EUROMETAL Sentiment Survey, reflecting the opinions of 210 participants for December 2024. Interested in our Sentiment Tool? Contact us.
EUROMETAL Sentiment Tool is now operational
EUROMETAL began collecting the date of its first survey.
As reported about a month ago, EUROMETAL is launching the new market sentiment tool for its members and stakeholders.
Operators in the steel business are always keen to understand the general perception of the market regarding activity, stocks, and prices.
To meet this need, EUROMETAL introduced a new fully compliance tool to gather insights from members and subscribers on current market trends. This user-friendly tool will allow industry participants to share their opinions.
Once a month, EUROMETAL will publish a summary of the responses. The report (per sector and geographical area) will present the combined opinions and previous data, aiding the market in forming a comprehensive view of trends.
How to participate?
In a first phase, the Sentiment Tool was open to EUROMETAL members and subscribers.
An email entitled EUROMETAL Steel Distribution Market Sentiment Survey was sent today via info@eurometal-survey.net.
In the first phase, you will be asked to validate your contact, sector and market. Participation will only take a few seconds. Your participation is secret and will not be shared in any way.
Check your email and participate in this opinion poll.
UK HRC market sentiment bearish on low demand
Domestic prices for hot-rolled coil in the UK fell in the week ended May 16 as trading activity remained low and distributors started to offload ex-stock material at competitive prices.
Atlantic Steel Processing, a flat steel service center and stockholder, went into administration on May 14, according to official government data. Market sources said that this will result in significant tonnages going around and prices are expected to be lower in the coming weeks.
“Atlantic steel went into administration, so the cargo has to go somewhere,” a trader source said. “Spot prices are expected to be lower because of this for the next 2-3 weeks.”
Atlantic Steel typically has up to 10,000 mt of flat steel in the warehouse, and further 10,000 mt in ports, according to the company’s website.
Steelmakers have been struggling to fill order books as buyers were holding back from bookings. Sources also said that no significant improvement in demand is expected until next year.
“The market is still very quiet,” a service center source said. “EU mills are hungry for orders.”
Additionally, the bearish mood in the market was supported by competitive stocks of local distributors offering European hot-rolled coil at GBP580-600/mt ex-stock West Midlands.
For new EU-origin material, offers and tradable values were reported at GBP610-620/mt DDP West Midlands.
For material originating from Vietnam, offers were reported at GBP590-600/mt DDP West Midlands, while tradable values were reported at GBP580-585/mt DDP West Midlands.
For material originating from Turkey, offers and tradable values were reported at GBP590-610/mt DDP West Midlands.
Platts assessed UK HRC down GBP5/mt on the day at GBP605/mt basis DDP West Midlands May 16.
For the “other countries” UK HRC category, mainly including material from Asia, 89% of the total quota — which is 22,589 mt — has already been used, according to official UK government data.
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
