EU Steel Distribution: Stability holds as price expectations firm up
The latest EUROMETAL Market Sentiment Survey for January 2026 confirms a market that has entered the new year with greater stability but limited momentum.
While current activity remains broadly unchanged and inventories continue to be managed cautiously, price expectations have consolidated at positive levels, suggesting that sentiment is gradually improving on the pricing side, even as demand fundamentals remain weak.
Based on responses from around 200 industry participants, the survey highlights a sector that is no longer deteriorating, but still waiting for clearer signals of recovery.
Current activity remains broadly stable
The assessment of current activity shows little change compared with the final months of 2025. Activity levels remains at the neutral line, but the absence of further decline confirms that the market has stabilised after the volatility seen earlier in 2025. This prolonged period of flat activity points to a market that has found a temporary equilibrium, albeit at subdued levels.
Near-term outlook improves slightly
Expectations for activity in the next quarter show a modest improvement compared with late 2025. While confidence remains fragile, the January results suggest that pessimism has eased somewhat, with fewer respondents expecting a further deterioration. This cautious improvement reflects hopes that demand conditions may gradually normalise as 2026 progresses, although visibility remains limited.
Inventory strategies remain defensive
Stock volume expectations continue to signal disciplined inventory management. Most distributors expect stock levels to remain broadly stable over the next three months, with no indication of aggressive restocking. This reflects ongoing risk aversion and a preference for flexibility in a market still characterised by weak demand and uncertain order books.
Price expectations consolidate at positive levels
Price expectations remain the most positive indicator in the January survey. After improving steadily in the second half of 2025, sentiment on prices has now consolidated clearly above the neutral line. This suggests that a growing share of distributors expect prices to hold firm or increase moderately in the coming months.
While not yet indicative of a strong upward cycle, this trend may reflect tighter supply conditions, lower import availability, or the anticipation of gradual restocking once demand stabilises.
Key takeaway
The January 2026 survey confirms a steel distribution market that has moved out of decline and into a phase of stabilisation, but without a clear demand-driven recovery. Activity remains subdued and inventories are tightly controlled, underscoring continued caution across the sector.
At the same time, the consolidation of positive price expectations stands out as a potentially important signal. If demand fundamentals begin to improve, this could mark the early stages of a more constructive market environment in the months ahead. Until then, prudence and short-term visibility continue to define sentiment across Europe’s steel distribution sector.
This analysis is based on the EUROMETAL Market Sentiment Survey, reflecting the views of approximately 200 industry participants for January 2026.
EU Steel Distribution: Confidence slips slightly, but activity stabilises
The latest EUROMETAL Market Sentiment Survey for October 2025 shows a mixed picture for Europe’s steel distribution sector. While current activity appears to have stabilised, forward-looking indicators suggest that confidence in a recovery remains fragile.
After September’s tentative signs of improvement, October’s results show a sector still cautious, with no strong upward momentum and a wait-and-see approach dominating behaviour.
Current activity remains stable
The assessment of current activity remained stable in October, holding at similar levels to September. While still modestly negative and below the neutral line, this marks the second consecutive month without further deterioration — a potential sign that the market may have found its floor after the sharp summer downturn.
Near-term outlook softens again
Expectations for activity in the next quarter declined slightly in October, reversing part of the cautious optimism seen in September. While not a dramatic shift, the trend reflects ongoing uncertainty and weak demand fundamentals heading into Q4.
Inventory strategies unchanged
The stock volume outlook remains consistent with previous months. Distributors are largely maintaining defensive inventory strategies, with most respondents expecting stock levels to remain stable in the near term. This cautious approach signals continued risk aversion across the sector.
Price expectations continue upward trend
October marks the third consecutive month of rising price expectations among European steel distributors. Following the dip in Q2, sentiment has steadily improved, and October shows the strongest positive outlook since early spring.
While price sentiment is not yet decisively bullish, the trend indicates that more respondents are beginning to expect moderate price increases in the coming months. This shift may reflect signs of tightening supply, stabilised demand, or anticipation of restocking cycles in Q4.
Key Takeaway
While there are early signs of improvement in price sentiment, the October 2025 data continue to reflect a market constrained by weak demand and low visibility. Current activity has stabilised, and inventories remain steady — both indicators of a sector in a holding pattern.
However, the continuation of upward price expectations is notable and could signal the beginning of a more positive trend — if demand fundamentals start to improve. Until then, caution remains the dominant mood across Europe’s steel distribution sector.
This analysis is based on the EUROMETAL Market Sentiment Survey, reflecting the views of 214 industry participants for October 2025.
Interested in our Sentiment Tool? Contact us.
EU Steel Distribution: Sentiment stabilises in September, but recovery remains elusive
The latest EUROMETAL Market Sentiment Survey for September 2025 reveals a tentative stabilisation in market sentiment across Europe’s steel distribution sector. While the mood remains cautious and far from optimistic, the sharp declines seen in July appear to have bottomed out — with most indicators either flatlining or showing slight improvement.
This month’s data reflects a sector that is still under pressure, but possibly adjusting to the challenging environment by adopting a more measured stance. Price expectations, in particular, show a modest recovery — although still not enough to suggest a strong rebound.
Assessment of current activity
After July’s sharp downturn, sentiment regarding current activity has returned to levels seen in early summer. While still modestly negative, September shows a slight upward correction, hinting that the sector may be adjusting to the weak demand environment or seeing signs of stabilisation. The improvement, however, is marginal and should not be overstated — activity remains below the neutral line.
Outlook for future activity
The forecast for the coming quarter has also nudged upward in September, reversing part of the pessimism recorded in July. The trend suggests that expectations are no longer worsening, and some respondents may be cautiously optimistic about Q4. Nevertheless, sentiment remains fragile, and the overall mood continues to reflect low confidence in near-term recovery.
Stock position outlook
The stock volume outlook remains consistent with previous months: largely unchanged. The central positioning of responses and minimal variation across the past five months indicate continued risk aversion. Distributors are maintaining defensive inventory strategies, avoiding overstocking in an uncertain demand environment.
Price expectations
In contrast to other indicators, price sentiment shows the clearest sign of improvement. September marks the second consecutive month of recovery from the sharp dip seen in May and June. While still hovering around neutral, the trendline points upward — suggesting that expectations of stabilising or even slightly rising prices are beginning to take hold. This may reflect better supply-demand balance or seasonal effects.
While the market environment remains difficult, the September 2025 EUROMETAL Sentiment Survey suggests that the worst may be behind us — at least for now. Caution still dominates distributor behaviour, but the absence of further deterioration is notable. If these stabilising signals continue into Q4, the European steel distribution sector could enter 2026 in a more resilient position.
This analysis is based on the EUROMETAL Market Sentiment Survey, reflecting the views of 217 industry participants for September 2025.
Interested in our Sentiment Tool? Contact us.
EU Steel Distribution: cautious optimism amid stable market conditions as 2024 ends
The European Steel Distribution sector remains cautious and prepares for the challenges of early 2025.
The EUROMETAL Sentiment Survey for December 2024 reveals a largely neutral to mildly optimistic market sentiment, with respondents expecting stable stock levels, steady current activity, and modest improvements in future activity and prices. This suggests the steel and metals distribution sector is ending the year on a positive yet stable note, with confidence in the market’s trajectory heading into 2025.
Assessment of Current Activity
Responses for December 2024 reflect a continuation of trends observed in previous months, with activity levels remaining below the neutral line. This suggests that the sector continues to operate cautiously, with no signs of significant improvement.
However, compared to October and November, responses indicate a slight stabilization, suggesting that the current activity level has settled into a consistent, albeit subdued, pattern.
Future Activity Forecast
The sentiment for December 2024 is above the neutral line, suggesting cautious optimism for the next quarter.
In contrast to the months of August, September and October, where responses dipped below neutral, indicating some concerns or market uncertainties, December reflects greater confidence in upcoming activity.
Bubble size in December is moderate, suggesting a mix of opinions, but with the majority leaning toward a positive outlook.
Stock Position Forecast
Stock position responses for December show little change, reflecting a continued conservative inventory approach. Respondents indicate no significant plans for aggressive restocking, preferring to align stock levels with lower demand expectations. This reflects distributors’ cautious stance as they enter 2025 amid uncertain market conditions.
Price Development Expectations
December 2024 exhibits a clear upward tilt above neutrality, signaling expectations for moderate price increases in the coming months. The upward trajectory in December sentiment could reflect improving market conditions, such as stronger demand, reduced supply chain pressures, or other positive economic signals.
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This analysis is based on the EUROMETAL Sentiment Survey, reflecting the opinions of 210 participants for December 2024. Interested in our Sentiment Tool? Contact us.
EUROMETAL Sentiment Tool is now operational
EUROMETAL began collecting the date of its first survey.
As reported about a month ago, EUROMETAL is launching the new market sentiment tool for its members and stakeholders.
Operators in the steel business are always keen to understand the general perception of the market regarding activity, stocks, and prices.
To meet this need, EUROMETAL introduced a new fully compliance tool to gather insights from members and subscribers on current market trends. This user-friendly tool will allow industry participants to share their opinions.
Once a month, EUROMETAL will publish a summary of the responses. The report (per sector and geographical area) will present the combined opinions and previous data, aiding the market in forming a comprehensive view of trends.
How to participate?
In a first phase, the Sentiment Tool was open to EUROMETAL members and subscribers.
An email entitled EUROMETAL Steel Distribution Market Sentiment Survey was sent today via info@eurometal-survey.net.
In the first phase, you will be asked to validate your contact, sector and market. Participation will only take a few seconds. Your participation is secret and will not be shared in any way.
Check your email and participate in this opinion poll.
UK HRC market sentiment bearish on low demand
Domestic prices for hot-rolled coil in the UK fell in the week ended May 16 as trading activity remained low and distributors started to offload ex-stock material at competitive prices.
Atlantic Steel Processing, a flat steel service center and stockholder, went into administration on May 14, according to official government data. Market sources said that this will result in significant tonnages going around and prices are expected to be lower in the coming weeks.
“Atlantic steel went into administration, so the cargo has to go somewhere,” a trader source said. “Spot prices are expected to be lower because of this for the next 2-3 weeks.”
Atlantic Steel typically has up to 10,000 mt of flat steel in the warehouse, and further 10,000 mt in ports, according to the company’s website.
Steelmakers have been struggling to fill order books as buyers were holding back from bookings. Sources also said that no significant improvement in demand is expected until next year.
“The market is still very quiet,” a service center source said. “EU mills are hungry for orders.”
Additionally, the bearish mood in the market was supported by competitive stocks of local distributors offering European hot-rolled coil at GBP580-600/mt ex-stock West Midlands.
For new EU-origin material, offers and tradable values were reported at GBP610-620/mt DDP West Midlands.
For material originating from Vietnam, offers were reported at GBP590-600/mt DDP West Midlands, while tradable values were reported at GBP580-585/mt DDP West Midlands.
For material originating from Turkey, offers and tradable values were reported at GBP590-610/mt DDP West Midlands.
Platts assessed UK HRC down GBP5/mt on the day at GBP605/mt basis DDP West Midlands May 16.
For the “other countries” UK HRC category, mainly including material from Asia, 89% of the total quota — which is 22,589 mt — has already been used, according to official UK government data.
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
