Year: 2026

Global steel demand has been forecast to increase by 0.3% to 1.72 billion tonnes in 2026, followed by an ‘accelerated’ growth rate of 2.2% to 1.76 billion tonnes in 2027, according to the World Steel Association (Worldsteel) in its latest Short-Range Outlook (SRO) report published Tuesday April 14.

The report suggested that global steel demand could be bottoming out in the near-term as the industry exits a “protracted and challenging phase of global structural adjustments that has suppressed demand since 2022.”

Worldsteel attributed the anticipated reversal in demand trends to a deceleration in the rate of demand contraction in China and a “vibrant” Indian steel economy helping steel demand over the next couple of years.

The organization acknowledged, however, that the continuing conflict in the Gulf region and the consequent restrictions on commodity flows could act as a caveat to growth in the region.

Several Gulf steelmakers have been heard reducing their output volumes over the last month due to the regional conflict restricting access to seaborne raw materials including iron ore pellet and ferro-alloys, sources have told Fastmarkets.

Major steel mills in Iran have been damaged by strikes and could take up to 6-12 months to recover from the attacks, local news agencies have reported.

Chinese demand deficit to narrow
Worldsteel expects the deficit in Chinese demand to soften in 2026 to -1.5%, citing that the housing market correction may have reached its bottom and infrastructure investments are expected to increase this year.

In 2027, the association expects steel demand in China to plateau relative to expectations in 2026, which they suggest is due to the effects of a real estate industry correction largely expected to be felt in 2026.

Fastmarkets assessed the price of domestic hot-rolled coil, ex-warehouse Eastern China, at 3,280-3,300 yuan ($474-475) per tonne on Tuesday April 14, compared with 3,280-3,290 yuan on March 13, with continuing supply constraints helping to sustain price levels, sources told Fastmarkets.

Market participants said strong slab export momentum – triggered by the shortfall in Iranian supplies since the war, its wide-ranging effects across the Middle East and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz – had led to a surge in overseas orders that has diverted slab away from the domestic market, thereby lending underlying support to HRC prices.

Indian steel demand to maintain strong trajectory
India, the world’s fastest-growing major steel market, is expected to grow its steel demand by 7.4% in 2026 and 9.2% in 2027, the association said.

Growth in the infrastructure sector and in the automotive industry were cited as key demand drivers in the report, with a nationwide rail-network expansion project supporting steel demand at present.

Indian crude steel output hit 164.9 million tonnes in 2025, up by 10.4% year on year, further cementing India’s rank as the world’s second-largest producer behind China.

The momentum carried into early 2026, with output rising by another 9.7% year on year in January-February, according to data from WorldSteel.

US market expected to grow on private sector investment
The US market is expected to grow by 1.7% this year and by 2.0% in 2027, with Worldsteel suggesting that easing financing conditions and interest rates could support residential construction.

Data center investments in the US have also been supporting steel demand in the region, with US steelmakers facing a “robust opportunity” in the data center construction boom, driven by rapid implementation of artificial intelligence software, according to Barry Zekelman, executive chairman and chief executive officer of Zekelman Industries.

“However, the pace of this rebound is likely to remain constrained by persistent structural challenges, including elevated material costs, high mortgage rates, affordability pressures, and continuing labor shortages. Additionally, demand for durable goods may be tempered amid a softening labor market,” Worldsteel said.

EU, UK demand to reverse course on recently sluggish growth
Worldsteel expects infrastructure and defense spending to support the European and UK markets to grow by 1.3% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, in a “long-awaited” return of steel demand growth.

Demand for imports in the European steel markets has dwindled in the year so far since the introduction of steep Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) costs faced by European importers in January 2026, according to trade sources.

European markets have therefore been more reliant on domestic production, with producers within the EU reporting healthier demand and in turn moving toward greater ferrous scrap demand to feed their growing output, sources said.

EUROMETAL, together with national federations and steel producers, has launched a call for action to protect the European steel and metals industry.

EUROMETAL, representing European steel distributors, traders and service centres, met with members of the press at the Tube & Wire Düsseldorf. During the meeting, EUROMETAL, together with national federations and steel producers, launched a Call to Action to safeguard the European steel and metals industry. The initiative brought together stakeholders from across the entire value chain, forming a broad and unified industry coalition.

According to the statement, the initiative has already secured the support of more than 300 companies and 35 national steel associations across Europe, signalling a strong and coordinated stance within the sector.

Industry representatives highlighted that the European steel and metals ecosystem is under significant pressure due to rising imports of processed products, global trade distortions, protectionist policies by third countries, and high energy and regulatory costs in Europe. These developments were said to put the entire value chain at risk, from production to distribution, processing industries and end users.

The statement warned that without the necessary measures, the European Union could face an accelerating process of deindustrialisation, with far-reaching economic, social and strategic consequences.

Within the scope of the initiative, a call was made to EU Member States and the European Commission to take swift and decisive action. The signatories emphasised the need for effective and rapidly deployable trade measures aligned with those implemented by major trading partners such as the United States and Canada.

At the same time, it was stressed that EU climate ambitions must be preserved, but within a framework that does not undermine the global competitiveness of European industry or create disadvantages in the face of unfair competition.

EUROMETAL underlined that the entire European steel and metals value chain is at risk and requires immediate support, noting that this interconnected structure—from production to distribution, service centres to manufacturing industries—provides employment to millions and forms the backbone of Europe’s industrial resilience.

The statement also noted that without swift and coordinated action, the sector could face significant job losses, increased dependence on third countries, and a weakening of Europe’s strategic autonomy.

EUROMETAL called on policymakers at both national and European levels to recognise the urgency of the situation and take the necessary steps to secure the future of the European steel and metals industry.

Signatories: steelindustrynow.eu

Author: SteelRadar Editorial Team

steelradar.com

The World Steel Association (worldsteel) has announced the admission of several new members, as well as the upcoming appointment of a new Director General.

At its latest Board meeting, worldsteel welcomed the following steel producers as regular members:

• Almaadi Steel (Egypt), represented by Mina Atef HENDY
• Dongkuk Steel Mill Co., Ltd. (South Korea), represented by Samyoung CHOI
• Grupo AG (Guatemala), represented by Rodrigo GABRIEL
• Hydnum Steel S.L. (Spain), represented by Eva MANEIRO
• İÇDAŞ Çelik Enerji Tersane ve Ulaşım San (Türkiye), Akgün FILIZ
• Marcegaglia (United Kingdom), represented by David SCAIFE
• Steel Dynamics (United States), represented by Mark MILLET

In addition, K1-MET GmbH (Austria) has joined as an affiliated member.

worldsteel also announced that Henrik Adam will assume the role of Director General from mid-Q4 2026. He currently serves as Executive Chairman of Tata Steel Netherlands Holding BV and holds leadership positions within EUROFER and the Steel Institute VDEh.

Dr. Adam brings more than 25 years of experience in the steel and automotive sectors, including senior executive roles at Tata Steel Europe and thyssenkrupp. He will succeed Edwin Basson, who will retire after more than 15 years leading the association.

The World Steel Association represents steel producers, national and regional industry associations, and research institutes, accounting for approximately 85% of global steel production.

The European Parliament and Council have reached an agreement on the EU’s proposed new steel trade regime, confirming tariff-free quotas at 18.3 million tonnes/year, an out-of-duty quota of 50% and the “melt & pour” rule implementation. The text will now be considered for formal adoption by the European Parliament and the Council.

The first Parliament reading in plenary is expected on 18 May. The aim remains for the new measure to come into force from 1 July.

The Commission continues to prepare two implementing acts, on country allocation of quotas and the documentary evidence needed to meet the melt & pour requirement, respectively, Kallanish notes.

It is meanwhile also negotiating with trading partners under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) Article XXVIII proceedings, thus ensuring the World Trade Organisation (WTO) compatibility of the measure.

The new trade regime will apply to imported products from all countries, except for EEA countries – the latter will still be subject to melt & pour requirements.

During the first year of application, unused import quotas will be permitted to be carried over from one quarter to the next for all product categories. From the second year onwards, the Commission will determine whether carry-over should be allowed for specific product categories, based on certain criteria.

Under the compromise reached by the co-legislators, the country where the steel is melted and poured will be used as one of the factors when allocating quotas to third countries. The Commission will have to assess within two years whether to designate the country of melt and pour as the basis for country-specific tariff quota allocations. If necessary, it will present a new legislative proposal.

Within six months of regulation entry into force, the Commission will assess whether the scope should be extended to cover additional steel products, such as pipe and wire. A second review within 12 months will assess whether the scope should extend to products made of or containing a significant amount of steel.

“The steel industry has been at the foundation of our European unity. There is no prosperous Europe without a sustainable, strong and sovereign steel industry. On this strategic sector, like many others, we will do whatever it takes to maintain production, jobs and skills alive in our continent,” says European Commission Executive Vice-President for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy Stéphane Séjourné.

EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič adds: “The shape and global standing of Europe’s steel sector are fundamental to our strategic autonomy and industrial strength. We therefore cannot afford to turn a blind eye to global overcapacity reaching critical levels. Today’s outcome helps bring much-needed stability for our producers to thrive in Europe – because this is, at its core, about people and jobs.”

Author: Adam Smith

kallanish.com

During the past week ending April 13, average Chinese domestic rebar and wire rod prices have moved down amid the declines in rebar futures prices and the lack of expectations of a rebound in demand, while the escalation of the war in the Middle East has again raised concerns regarding further increases in fuel and transportation costs.

Thyssenkrupp Materials Services has announced that it has acquired a majority stake in Mexico-based Aceroteca Trading, marking a strategic move to expand its footprint in North America and support increasing nearshoring trends.

Aceroteca operates a flat-rolled carbon steel processing and service center in Santa Catarina, part of the Monterrey metropolitan area, one of Mexico’s most important industrial regions.

The facility offers a modern and scalable processing platform, enabling closer proximity to customers, shorter lead times, and improved supply chain efficiency. According to Heather Wijdekop, CEO of the Processing business unit, the transaction strengthens the company’s ability to adapt to localized production and distribution requirements.

Expanding capabilities and customer reach

Aceroteca currently supplies sectors such as heating and cooling and power transmission, while also providing additional capacity for both existing and new customers. The deal is expected to enhance thyssenkrupp Materials Services’ Coil Processing Group presence in the region. While the initial focus remains on flat-rolled carbon steel products, the platform offers potential for expansion into additional product segments.

Author: SteelOrbis Editorial Team

steelorbis.com

The escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran has reignited concerns in global markets, with immediate impacts on energy, logistics and supply chains. The US naval blockade targeting Iranian ports, which enters into force today, April 13, represents one of the most significant measures seen in the Gulf region in recent years, directly affecting trade flows linked to one of the world’s main energy hubs. Although it does not amount to a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the route through which around 20 percent of global oil supplies pass, the measure is exerting a strong impact on market expectations, increasing risk premiums and fueling uncertainty over energy flows.

Energy prices rise: oil above $100/barrel, pressure mounts on industrial costs

The market reaction was immediate. Brent climbed above $102/barrel, while WTI moved past $104/barrel, posting gains of around 6-7 percent within a matter of hours. For the steel sector, which is highly energy-intensive, the return of elevated energy prices represents a critical factor. Rising oil and fuel costs are directly affecting production costs, particularly for integrated mills and downstream processing activities, while also increasing transportation costs for raw materials and finished products. In this context, electricity and gas prices, which are already subject to volatility, are expected to come under further pressure, with knock-on effects on the competitiveness of steel producers, especially in Europe.

At the same time, instability in the Gulf region is undermining the regular flow of maritime traffic. Restrictions and operational risks are reducing the number of transits through the Strait of Hormuz and forcing operators to use longer and more costly alternative routes. Initial evidence points to delivery delays of up to 20-25 days, creating difficulties in logistics planning and inventory management. The uncertain environment is also affecting vessel availability and the organization of trade flows, both of which are key elements in the international trade of steel and raw materials. A further critical factor is the rise in ocean freight rates, which, according to market sources, have seen significant increases in recent weeks, in some cases tripling and further aggravating overall costs along the supply chain.

For the global steel sector, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are translating into concrete risks both on the raw materials procurement side, including iron ore and coal, and on the export side toward key Middle Eastern markets. The Gulf region is in fact an important destination for numerous producers, as well as a strategic logistics hub for trade flows between Asia and Europe. Any disruption or slowdown in traffic may therefore alter trade balances, reduce traded volumes, and increase price volatility. In addition, growing uncertainty may push market players to revise their sourcing and sales strategies, favoring alternative markets or shortening supply chains.

Direct impact on Italian ports: exports and energy costs

The repercussions are already becoming visible in Italy as well. The port of Ancona, one of the Adriatic’s main ports with strong trade links to the Gulf, is already seeing a significant impact on operations. According to local operators, as much as 20-25 percent of annual exports are directly exposed to those markets, with volumes already declining due to difficulties in maritime traffic. Delivery delays and the cancellation of some shipments are creating a knock-on effect on industrial activity, raising the risk of lower production for the companies most exposed. At the same time, rising energy costs are beginning to affect the real economy. Higher fuel, gas and electricity prices are weighing both on industrial costs and on domestic demand, which is already under pressure. For Italian steel companies, which are heavily dependent on energy and deeply integrated into global supply chains, the current environment represents an additional source of strain.

Some operators are trying to work around logistical difficulties by resorting to alternative solutions such as overland transport, but these options are more expensive and not always sustainable in the medium term.

Outlook

In the short term, the market remains exposed to high volatility. The evolution of the crisis between the United States and Iran will be decisive for the stability of energy and trade routes. For the steel sector, the main risk lies in the combination of elevated energy costs, logistical tensions and uncertainty on the demand side. A prolonged crisis could further increase pressure on margins and slow international trade even more.

Market players are waiting for developments on the diplomatic front, but in the meantime the market has already begun adjusting to a more complex scenario marked by greater risk and lower predictability.

European hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices were largely unmoved on Monday April 13, despite higher offers voiced by several suppliers; buyers were questioning further price increases amid stable consumption, Fastmarkets heard.

Integrated producers in Germany and the Benelux area sold a large portion of their second-quarter coil volumes, with only small quantities of HRC still available for June delivery from certain mills.

For July deliveries, offers have been heard in the range of €750-760 ($879-890) per tonne ex-works, but buyers considered these levels unworkable so far.

“There is still no demand on either [the] stockholders’ or manufacturers’ side; only project-related purchases are being conducted,” a source on the buy side said.

Buyers’ estimates of achievable prices for June delivery HRC were mainly reported at no lower than €700-730 per tonne ex-works on Monday.

As a result, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €720.00 per tonne on April 13, unchanged since Friday April 10.

The index averaged €708.05 per tonne in March 2026, up from a monthly average of €664.51 in February.

There was also information that a leading European steelmaker was selling leftovers of second-quarter delivery HRC in Central Europe, notably Poland, at discounted prices — around €695 per tonne CPT (€680 per tonne ex-works) — while in other regions no such low prices were reported.

“These sales [at lower prices] are sporadic and regionalized and have no impact on [the] general price trend,” a buyer in Poland said.

Sources expected more clarity on further price direction during the Wire & Tube trade fair in Dusseldorf, Germany, held over April 13-17.

Fastmarkets’ steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €697.64 per tonne on April 13, down by €2.36 per tonne from €700.00 per tonne on April 10.

The index averaged €690.79 per tonne in March 2026, up from a monthly average of €655.14 in February.

Local buyer and seller sources estimated achievable prices at €690-700 per tonne ex-works on Monday.

Offers from local suppliers for June delivery HRC were reported around €700-705 per tonne ex-works earlier in April.

“Trading is presently more driven by speculation and expectations of higher prices, but not driven by demand,” a buyer source said.

A local re-roller, which suspended HRC production at the beginning of April due to technical issues, has yet to resume operations, sources told Fastmarkets.

However, shorter supply has had no visible effect on the market so far.

“[Re-roller] only produces about half a million tonnes [of HRC] per year at most, so the impact is not tremendous, but considering the situation with imports, it might get tighter, especially if the stoppage is prolonged,” a buyer in Italy said.

Meanwhile, new import HRC offers to Europe remained limited. Buyers are holding back ahead of revised safeguard quotas from the European Commission, effective July 1, with uncertainty over the regime and potential costs from the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) weighing on demand, while Middle East-related disruptions and higher freight rates continue to restrict Asian import offers.

Sources reported Indonesian HRC available at €700 per tonne DDP, CBAM paid, in Spain. However, due to high default values for Indonesian steel and uncertainty around actual emissions verification, demand for such material was limited.

The most recent offers for Turkish HRC were heard at €620-630 per tonne CFR Italy in the week to April 10, including the anti-dumping duty but excluding CBAM costs.