Global apparent steel demand excluding China will rebound 2% on-year in 2026, while production and shipments are set to increase across all regions this year, supported by operational improvements and trade measures, ArcelorMittal says.
The group plans to capture medium-to-long-term steel demand driven by investments in the energy transition, new infrastructure and mobility systems, defence security and data centre capacity, Kallanish notes.
ArcelorMittal’s fourth-quarter-2025 consolidated steel shipments fell 4% on-year to 13 million tonnes, while production fell 9% to 12.8mt.
Sales however rose 2% to $14.97 billion and net income adjusted for exceptional items and one-off tax charges rose 62% to $654 million.
Over the past 12 months, the global economy has shifted towards “greater domestic supply resilience” amid widespread tariffs, says ArcelorMittal chief executive Aditya Mittal. “This led to an increasing number of countries finally taking steps to address the competitiveness of their manufacturing industries,” he adds.
“Nowhere was this more necessary than in Europe”, he continues. The proposed new trade regime and CBAM modifications have been critical to levelling the playing field on carbon costs.
“Combined, this will enable European producers to recover to sustainable utilisation levels, and generate healthy returns on capital. And while the full benefits of the changes in the regulatory environment will emerge over time – more visibly in the second half and into 2027 – we are very well positioned to benefit from this direction,” Mittal notes.
The new trade regime is projected to reduce EU steel imports by 10m t/year, according to ArcelorMittal. Existing furnaces can operate at higher utilisation rates, while idled units can be brought back online as demand recovers, the group notes. New capacity is also expected to come online in 2026 with the start-up of the 1m t/y Gijon EAF for long products and the expansion of the Sestao EAF to increase flat steel output.
In full-year 2025 ArcelorMittal shipments fell 1% on-year to 54mt, while crude steel production dropped 4% to 55.6mt. Sales fell 2% to $61.4 billion but adjusted net income rose 26% to $2.94 billion. The latter is attributed to lower foreign exchange and other net financing charges, and reduced tax expense, partially offset by lower Ebitda and higher interest costs.
