Despite a decline in Ebitda in 2025, ArcelorMittal posted a sharp rise in net profit and defended the solidity of its model, driven by its strategic investments and the expected improvement in the European regulatory framework. However, an analysis of the published figures reveals cash generation constrained by high capex and rising debt, while the group is carrying out a wide-ranging review of its workforce, a third of which is in Luxembourg.
ArcelorMittal closed 2025 with sales of $61.35 billion, down 1.7% on the $62.44bn recorded in 2024 . The Group attributes this decline mainly to a 2.3% drop in average steel selling prices. In a context described as difficult, marked in particular by depressed international prices and tariff effects in North America, Ebitda came to 6.541bn, down 7.3% on the 7.05bn recorded in 2024.
The key indicator highlighted by the group is Ebitda per tonne, which reached $121 in 2025. According to the official communication, this level is “more than double” previous cycle lows. The published documents do not detail here the exact numerical reference to previous cycles; the comparison is therefore a qualitative assessment by management of the structural evolution of margins.
Net income, group share comes out at $3.15bn, compared with 1.34bn in 2024, with earnings per share of 4.13 dollars. On an adjusted basis, net profit came to $2.94bn, or 3.85 dollars per share. The increase in net profit, despite a fall in Ebitda, was mainly due to an improvement in financial and tax items. The press release states that the increase in adjusted net profit reflects in particular lower foreign exchange and other financial expenses, as well as a reduction in the tax charge, partially offset by lower Ebitda and higher interest costs.
Limited cash flow
Analysis by segment shows contrasting dynamics. In North America, annual Ebitda fell to $1.237bn, compared with 1.819bn a year earlier. The Group cites the impact of Section 232 tariffs and maintenance operations in Mexico. In Europe, on the other hand, Ebitda rose to 2.028 billion dollars, compared with 1.624bn in 2024, a trend attributed to a more favourable price-cost effect and operational improvements. In Brazil, Ebitda fell to $1.440bn from $1.803bn, against a backdrop of lower prices. The Mining segment recorded an improvement, with Ebitda of $1.105 billion compared with $1.033bn, driven by higher volumes and shipments, particularly in Liberia. Lastly, the Sustainable Solutions segment saw its Ebitda rise to $422m from $314m in 2024, benefiting from the ramp-up of renewables in India.
In terms of cash generation, ArcelorMittal says it will have generated $4.8bn in operating cash flow by 2025, including a working capital release of $0.5bn. Capital expenditure amounted to $4.3bn, including 1.1bn devoted to strategic projects. Free cash flow came to 0.4 billion dollars. The company highlighted an investable cash flow of $1.9bn over the 12 months, defined as operating cash flow less maintenance capex. This metric, which is specific to the group, differs from strict free cash flow and emphasises that available self-financing capacity after total investments remains limited in 2025.
Net debt reached $7.9bn at 31 December, compared with 5.1bn a year earlier. The Group explains this increase by growth investments and consolidation operations, in particular that of Calvert. Total liquidity was announced at $11.0bn at the end of the financial year. Moody’s and S&P have upgraded the Group’s 2025 credit rating to Baa2 and BBB respectively, with a stable outlook.
Dividend raised slightly
In terms of shareholder return policy, ArcelorMittal says it has returned $0.7bn in 2025. The board of directors will propose to the general meeting an increase in the basic annual dividend to 0.60 dollars per share, compared with $0.55 previously, with a quarterly payment. The company also claims to have reduced the number of diluted shares by 38% since September 2020.
The strategic narrative places a strong emphasis on Europe. The Group believes that the combination of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), fully implemented from 1 January 2026, and the new Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) tool should reduce imports by around 10 million tonnes and support domestic capacity utilisation. The European Parliament vote on the TRQ is expected in February 2026, for implementation by 1 July 2026 at the latest. The actual impact on margins will, however, depend on the regulatory timetable and market reactions; these future effects are at this stage a matter of expectations formulated by the company.
ArcelorMittal finally indicates that strategic projects already underway have contributed $0.7bn of Ebitda in 2025 and that investments underway could increase the potential for additional Ebitda to $1.6bn from 2026 and beyond. This estimate is based, according to the published documents, on assumptions of ramp-up and normalised market conditions.
All in all, the 2025 accounts reflect a company that is maintaining significant operating profitability in an unfavourable cyclical environment, but at the cost of a high level of investment and an increase in net debt. The improvement in net profit is due more to financial and tax factors than to an expansion of the operational core. The 2026 trajectory will largely depend on the materialisation of regulatory effects in Europe, the ramp-up of industrial projects and trends in steel and iron ore prices.
