Stakeholders said that new trade policies and and a pending anti-dumping investigation into CRC imports were driving positive market expectations for 2026, even though they acknowledged that real demand is not expected to grow.
On September 18, the European Commission initiated an anti-dumping (AD) investigation targeting CRC originating in India, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey and Vietnam. The probe affects more than half of all EU CRC imports.
In 2024, those five countries accounted for 65.2% (1.9 million tonnes) of the total 3 million tonnes of CRC sold into the EU.
“In our opinion, if there were to be a shortage of material next year, it will be cold-rolled coil,” a German buyer told Fastmarkets on the sidelines at Blechexpo.
CRC prices in Northern Europe have moved slightly higher in mid-October, prompted by positive views among sellers after the new EU regime for 2026 was announced on October 7.
The German buyer source said that domestic mills were “not interested in selling big volumes of cold rolled coil, at least for commodity steel grades”, adding that suppliers preferred to use CRC to produce galvanized material.
“Producing CRC is expensive in Europe. And [CRC] has been import-dominated for years,” a second German buyer said.
Sources said that most EU mills use the batch annealing process to make CRC, which is very energy-intensive.
And only three suppliers could make CRC via continuous annealing, which is more energy-efficient, sources said
While trade restrictions and lower imports were seen as supportive factors for the market, weak end-user demand – particularly from key sectors such as automotive – is expected to offset much of that positive impact, sources said.
“We don’t expect our business with the automotive sector to grow,” a third German buyer said.
Buyers also questioned the sustainability of any potential price increases, given the low levels of demand.
According to a report published by the European Association of Automotive Suppliers (CLEPA) in March 2025, almost half do not expect to be profitable in 2025.
And a Benelux-based seller said that domestic prices CRC were unlikely to “shoot up” because of potential product shortages caused by the new import measures.
According to the seller, there is an “underestimation” of the ability for local mills to “fill the gap” left in the market by lower import volumes.
“There is a big part [of CRC] that is used to produce very basic quality value galvanized coil, which we won’t need to do if the price of CRC increases,” the seller said. “It depends on the balance that you make.”
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel cold-rolled coil domestic, exw Northern Europe was €670-690 per tonne on Wednesday, compared to €660-670 per tonne the previous week.
For January delivery, local suppliers told Fastmarkets they were looking to get €730-750 per tonne ex-works for CRC.
