European longs market quiet amid CBAM anticipation and upcoming winter holidays
No major changes have been reported in the European longs market this week. Most discussions among players have been focusing on the long-awaited release of official benchmarks and default values for CBAM calculation costs, as product prices seem to have remained stable and demand is weak ahead of the Christmas holidays.
“We are trying to sustain our [rebar sales] prices,” a source at an Italian mill said. Reported levels, however, have not changed since last week’s increase attempts, remaining in the range of €300-320/mt ex-works base (€560-580/mt ex-works including regular extras).
The same applies to the Italian wire rod market, where December prices have consolidated at €570-585/mt delivered for drawing quality and €550-565/mt delivered for mesh quality.
Market talk has been mainly focusing on anticipation regarding CBAM growing among steel market players in all segments in Europe. In fact, according to some rumors circulating, official EU benchmarks and default values for CBAM calculation costs are to be announced on December 16. “I hope [the values] will help us figure this out, because everything is so unclear,” a source commented. “We’ll have some fun next week,” another source added.
In the meantime, no updates have been released for rebar export prices in Spain, which remain at €570/mt FOB.
Little upward movements, however, have been reported in the import market from Turkey. With the euro-dollar exchange rate unchanged at 1.17, Turkish rebar prices have been reported at €510-520/mt CFR and wire rod prices at €520-530/mt CFR, up by around €5/mt compared to last week. Prices from Egypt have been reported at €500/mt CFR for rebar – up by €5/mt week on week – and at €505-510/mt CFR for wire rod, stable week on week. Finally, prices from Algeria have decreased by €15/mt week on week, standing at €490/mt CFR and €495/mt CFR, respectively, for rebar and wire rod.
Europe sees continued standstill in HRC trading amid regulatory uncertainty
Market participants across Europe described another day of subdued activity, with both buyers and mills showing little urgency to conclude fresh HRC business. High inventories at service centers and distributors, together with comfortable order books at mills, kept trading largely hand-to-mouth. Several sources said both sides were effectively postponing meaningful decisions until January, when the market expects clearer signals following the holiday slowdown and the full implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Sentiment across the region remained dominated by trade regulation shifts, notably the imminent rollout of CBAM. Market participants continued to digest the European Commission’s newly accepted benchmarks and default emissions values, which several traders said would sharply increase the cost of imports from January onward. Fastmarkets’ estimates pointed to CBAM charges for imported HRC of roughly €23-540 ($26-632) per tonne, depending on origin, rendering most import options unviable in the near term.
The shift was expected to give European mills room to attempt price increases in the first quarter of 2026, although demand-side constraints were widely expected to cap any significant upward momentum.
Northern Europe
Northern European buyers reported that stocks remained more than sufficient to cover short-term needs and availability of imports currently in ports also eased any supply concerns.
Domestic mills, meanwhile, were largely sold out for January and, in several cases, partly for February, offering little volume into the spot market and focusing on long-term contract negotiations with automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). As a result, workable prices in the region continued to cluster around €610-630 per tonne ex-works, with offers heard at €630-650 per tonne ex-works depending on source and delivery window. Larger-volume negotiations at 3,000-5,000 tonnes could touch €600 per tonne ex-works, but such volumes were rarely discussed in recent weeks.
“Nobody buys large tonnages these days — trading is mainly hand-to-mouth,” a buyer in the Benelux area said.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe reflected this standstill in the market, holding in the €621-623 per tonne range throughout the week. Minor day-to-day fluctuations marked a generally flat market, although month-on-month changes still indicated a modest upward trend.
Notably, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €621.67 per tonne on Friday, up by €0.50 per tonne from €621.17 per tonne on Thursday December 11.
The index was down by €0.83 per tonne week on week but up by €10.00 per tonne month on month.
Italy
Italian market conditions mirrored those in the north, with trading exceptionally slow. Local suppliers were sold out for January and targeting €610-630 per tonne ex-works for February delivery, but actual transactions remained scarce.
Buyers reported achievable levels between €600 per tonne and €620 per tonne ex-works, noting that mills held firm on offers.
“Suppliers closed January order books and gradually hope to achieve increases in the first quarter because new imports become totally unmanageable with CBAM rollout,” a buyer in Italy said.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €611.25 per tonne on Friday, down by €1.25 per tonne from €612.50 per tonne on Thursday.
The index was down by €2.08 per tonne week on week but up by €13.33 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, imports into Italy also slowed [LINK]. While some big buyers continued to book overseas coil despite the regulatory uncertainty, most market participants preferred to wait for clearer guidance on CBAM cost implications and remaining safeguard quotas.
Italian rerollers and buyers call CBAM values ‘unworkable’; actual emissions verification a priority in 2026
Finalized benchmark and default values
Under the EU’s CBAM steel regime, benchmark values are standardized carbon-intensity reference figures used to calculate the embedded emissions cost of imports based on typical production pathways.
Default values are preset emissions figures applied when verified actual emissions data is not available and are deliberately set higher to encourage reporting.
In the latest European Commission CBAM draft documents, finalized slab default values for origins such as China were set at higher levels than in previous drafts and very high defaults for some major slab-exporting countries were confirmed, Fastmarkets reported on Wednesday December 10.
Russia is the largest supplier of slab to Europe, with other key exporters including China, Indonesia, India, Brazil and Vietnam. Based on finalized default CBAM values for 2026 estimated by Fastmarkets, the estimated costs for slab imports using default emission intensities are approximately €144 ($168) per tonne for China, around €149 per tonne for Russia, about €230 per tonne for India and €541 per tonne for Indonesia, while Brazil’s defaults are calculated at a comparatively lower €22 per tonne.
The latest documentation also includes future annual mark-ups from 2026 onward, with default values set to rise annually to 10% in 2026, 20% in 2027 and 30% from 2028 onward, reflecting CBAM’s phase-in and the declining availability of free allowances in the EU Emission Trading System (ETS).
‘Unworkable’ default values and actual emissions verification
One plate producer source said the benchmark figures did not come as a surprise to market participants but added that the final default values with mark-ups included were a ‘blow’ to Italy’s slab and plate markets, which are heavily reliant on slab imports as feedstock for flat steel production.
“The final default values practically make CBAM reporting by defaults infeasible for most importers. It will be the year of convulsive verifications of actual emissions,” the producer source said.
A second slab buyer said the default values are ‘unworkable’ for many major exporting countries.
Sources said the biggest issue in the new year, once CBAM enters its definitive phase, will be ensuring slab suppliers fulfill their obligations to verify and report their actual emissions.
Emissions verification
From 2026, the EU has stated in regulatory documents that CBAM will require imported steel slab emissions to be verified by an accredited third party and the technical methodology may not need to be completely novel.
Sources said CBAM emissions verification could resemble established processes such as those used for Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs), with verifiers like TÜV, DNV and others already equipped to conduct audits and site checks.
But industry sources noted concerns that geopolitical tensions and varying regulatory capacity across exporters could make it harder for some countries to provide the credible, verified emissions data required under CBAM.
Risks with payments deferred
Sources also noted that CBAM duties will not be paid at the point of import in 2026. Instead, the definitive CBAM regime starts on January 1, 2026 and importers will first be required to purchase and surrender CBAM certificates in 2027 covering the embedded emissions of goods they imported in 2026, with annual declarations and payments due by then.
This deferred payment timing means companies will carry the cost through 2026 but only cash out when certificates are surrendered the following year, raising concerns among some producers about cash-flow pressure and insolvency risk if large volumes are imported before costs crystallize.
Slab market update
Currently, the Italy’s slab import market has stalled due to uncertainty around CBAM, with buyers said to be withholding from purchasing because of CBAM-cost considerations and a lack of clarity around whether suppliers, importers or end-users will take on the CBAM cost burden.
So far, Fastmarkets has not heard import offers from suppliers with CBAM costs included, as has been observed in downstream steel markets such as heavy plate and hot-rolled coil.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel slab import, cif Italy was $500-520 per tonne on Thursday, unchanged since November 6.
European heavy plate prices rise on CBAM cost support; slab import dynamics raise concerns
However, Italian rerollers expressed concerns about finalized CBAM figures, heard by Fastmarkets on Wednesday December 10, because of their heavy reliance on imported slab as feedstock and the high costs associated with default values, which must be used to calculate costs if actual emissions data from suppliers is not available.
Under CBAM, default values are standardized emissions estimates published by the European Commission that importers can use when they lack verified actual emissions data from suppliers.
Sources said slab feedstock purchases by rerollers have stalled because of uncertainties around future costs.
Italy
Prices in Italy moved up and producer sentiment was bullish in the week, with offers targeting €700 ($820) per tonne exw. However, deals were made in the range of €660-670 per tonne exw.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel domestic plate 8-40mm, exw Southern Europe was €660-680 per tonne on Thursday, up by €10-20 per tonne from €650-660 per tonne a week earlier.
Northern Europe prices widened upward amid upcoming CBAM cost pressures, although the range remained wide because some mills were still offering low prices to attract purchases, sources said.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel domestic plate 8-40mm, exw Northern Europe was €660-730 per tonne on Thursday, widening upward by €30 per tonne from €660-700 per tonne a week earlier.
EU Council adopts negotiating mandate on new steel overcapacity regulation
The Council of the European Union has adopted its negotiating mandate on a new regulation aimed at addressing the trade-related effects of global steel overcapacity on the EU market.
The proposed framework is intended to replace the current steel safeguard measures, which are set to expire on 30 June 2026.
The Council’s position confirms the EU’s determination to maintain a high level of protection for the European steel industry, while introducing additional flexibility and safeguards for downstream steel users. This balance reflects concerns consistently raised by EUROMETAL and its members regarding the functioning of trade defence instruments and their impact along the steel value chain.
Key elements of the Council mandate
The mandate largely preserves the core elements of the European Commission’s proposal. It provides for a significant reduction in tariff-free import volumes to 18.3 million tonnes per year, representing a 47% reduction compared to 2024 steel safeguard quotas. It also increases the out-of-quota duty to 50%, compared to 25% under the current safeguard regime. At the same time, the Council has introduced several amendments to improve legal clarity, flexibility and consideration of Union interest, notably for steel-using industries.
Stronger recognition of downstream industries
A central change in the Council’s mandate is the explicit reinforcement of Union interest as a guiding principle. This requires the European Commission to take into account the economic impact on downstream industries and final consumers when allocating tariff rate quotas, applying bilateral safeguard measures or adjusting quota volumes. In addition, the Council has introduced a new criterion obliging the Commission to consider situations where substantial price increases could seriously undermine the competitiveness of downstream industries when amending quotas.
Increased quota flexibility
To improve the functioning of the tariff quota system, the Council has allowed unused quota volumes in one quarter to be carried over to the following quarter within the same annual quota period. The mandate also clarifies that, while the Commission may adjust tariff quota volumes through delegated acts, the total volume must remain within a defined range of 15.2 to 22.2 million tonnes, ensuring a greater degree of predictability for market operators.
Melt-and-pour requirements: phased and reviewed
To address circumvention risks and enhance supply chain transparency, the regulation introduces a requirement for importers to provide evidence of the country of melt and pour. The Council has added important clarifications to its implementation. The requirement will apply from 1 October 2026, allowing economic operators and customs authorities sufficient time to adapt. Within two years, the Commission must assess whether country-specific tariff quotas should be based on melt-and-pour criteria and, if necessary, present a new legislative proposal. The Council also underlined the need for the Commission to consult relevant stakeholders before introducing any new requirements, with particular attention to administrative burden and practical feasibility.
Review, transparency and stakeholder engagement
Compared to the Commission’s proposal, the Council has brought forward the assessment of a potential extension of the regulation’s scope to 18 months after entry into force. It also requires the Commission to launch a stakeholder consultation process by 1 October 2026. The first overall review of the regulation’s effects on the steel market and on Union interest has been shortened to four years, with subsequent evaluations every two years thereafter, including a specific assessment of impacts on downstream industries.
In addition, a new provision requires the Commission to establish an online contact point for EU economic operators to request relevant information concerning the implementation of the regulation.
Next steps
Once the European Parliament adopts its position, negotiations between the co-legislators will begin with a view to finalising the text before the expiry of the current safeguard measures. The regulation will enter into force following adoption by both institutions and publication in the Official Journal of the European Union.
SSAB expands Strenx network to Netherlands
SSAB says it is launching its certified fabricator network for its Strenx high-strength structural steel in the Netherlands.
The “Strenx Certified Fabricator” network connects a select group of fabricators with a proven ability to provide original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) with components and pre-fabricated structures, Kallanish understands.
These fabricators have demonstrated expertise in working with SSAB’s Strenx performance steel, the Swedish steelmaker explains. It adds it has appointed Dutch company Joop van Zanten to become a member of the network.
Separately, SSAB has selected engineering group Fives to modernise the control system of the reheating furnaces at its Raahe site in Finland. Originally installed by Fives in the 1990s, the two Stein Digit@l Furnaces have undergone several refurbishments to maintain performance and reliability.
Among other features, SSAB will deploy Smart Monitoring, a data-driven platform, which will consolidate operational data. The system will provide real-time performance indicators, enable proactive process and quality monitoring, detect anomalies, and anticipate maintenance needs, thus enhancing both performance and reliability, Fives notes.
Thysenkrupp cuts back on electrical steel production
Thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel (tkES) is set to cut back and partially shut down its production in the fiscal year through September 2026, Kallanish hears from parent thyssenkrupp Steel.
Starting mid-December, the plants in Gelsenkirchen, Germany, and Isbergues in France will be fully closed down until the end of the year. In addition, the Isbergues site will operate at just 50% of its total capacity for at least four months beginning in January. This is in response to the massively increased inflow of low-priced imports of grain-oriented electrical steel, especially from Asia, the parent states.
The European market for grain-oriented electrical steel is currently under severe pressure, driven by sharply rising import volumes priced well below the average production costs in the EU, tk Steel says. Since 2022, imports have tripled, and rose a further 50% in 2025. These developments have led to a dramatic shift in customer orders and, as a result, to substantial underutilisation of the European production facilities, the company explains.
It notes that the market for grain-oriented electrical steel nevertheless remains attractive, with studies forecasting global demand to treble by 2050.
“Grain-oriented electrical steel is an indispensable element for Europe’s energy infrastructure and the energy transition,” says thyssenkrupp Steel chief executive Marie Jaroni. She stresses the company is firmly committed to maintaining production in Europe. TkES employs approximately 1,200 people at the sites in Gelsenkirchen and Isbergues.
UK government delays Steel Strategy until 2026
The UK government has pushed the publication of the long-awaited Steel Strategy into 2026, Kallanish learns from a written ministerial statement on British Steel.
The statement written by UK industry minister Chris McDonald says: “The government remains committed to supporting the UK steel sector and delivering a steel strategy. A robust position on trade is a critical element of this strategy, underpinning our approach to defending against unfair practices and global over-capacity. We are prioritising developing robust measures in light of the UK steel safeguard expiring during 2026 to protect our domestic sector, making sure there are healthy levels of imports, and engaging with our partners. We will therefore publish the steel strategy in early 2026.”
The UK steel sector sees the strategy as vital for the future of the industry, but it has witnessed a number of delays throughout 2025. During the first few months of the year, the government launched its Steel Council and started holding roundtables as part of its work on the Steel Strategy as well as conducting a consultation. Its publication was expected during spring 2025.
However, it is believed the strategy has seen several revisions following the government’s intervention in British Steel in April, followed by Liberty Speciality Steels (SSUK) entering compulsory liquidation in August.
During topical questions in the House of Commons on 11 December, Andrew Griffith, Conversative MP, asked: “Will the Minister give the sector the Christmas present that it wants and publish the steel strategy?”
He highlighted the 18 months without the strategy, as well as the lack of a trade deal with the US on steel tariffs, and the absence of an agreement with the owners of British Steel.
Chris Bryant, Minister of State for Department for Business and Trade, replied that such a question was “a bit of a cheek” coming from the Conservatives “when they had absolutely no strategy”.
He added: “There will be a steel strategy. The Under-Secretary of State for Business and Trade [Chris McDonald] has been having discussions with trade unions and industry, both downstream and the producers, and we will be producing a comprehensive steel strategy very soon.”
Despite the delay, Gareth Stace, director-general of UK Steel, has welcomed the news. “It is right that the Government ensures trade measures and a plan for the sector assets it currently controls are announced for any strategy to work. With these frameworks in place, the strategy can become an effective plan of action, not intention.”
European coil import terms lean towards ddp
The EU’s extra cost burden on steel imports in 2026 may cause a shift in contract commercial terms to reflect the added costs in pricing. Besides the new trade regime anticipated from mid-2026, this would cover some risk associated with Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) charges, which cannot be accurately determined at present.
“Everybody is struggling with confusion at this point; I am concerned, because the first of January is basically around the corner,” one trader says. Exporting mills are aware of this prevailing sentiment among their European customers, and have started to factor in a CBAM accounting charge, which he and other observers see at around €70/tonne ($82).
This brings his offer price from Asian mills to European customers to €580/tonne ($681) ddp for hot rolled coil for delivery in April, he tells Kallanish. According to a Dutch service centre, traders have been offering HRC also from Turkey at €580-600/t ddp, including the CBAM charges.
“If they [exporter mills] want to maintain interest from the Europeans, they need to offer ddp,” the trader says. Players’ views differ on whether ddp, or delivered duty paid, means delivered to the final destination, or the port after customs clearance.
In the latter case, which is more likely, buyers in Belgium and the Netherlands close to the landing ports could find imports still attractive. “We have canal access, so it’s only €10 extra transport for us,” one Dutch buyer says.
The resulting differential between €590/t delivered and the domestic base price of around €620/t ex-works could make a bigger difference when aiming for the higher S355 grade, rather than the standard S235 grade. The latter grade is basically covered by the base price, or levied a minimal surcharge of €5/t, the buyer explains. By contrast, domestic mills may charge up to €30/t more for S355, whereas in the case of import prices, differentiation between the grades remains virtually unconsidered.
EU urged to extend steel protection to steel derivatives
The European Commission is being urged to make a clear commitment to extend its trade restrictions to steel derivatives and start cooperating with downstream industries, steel companies, processors and associations including Eurofer, ArcelorMittal, Thyssenkrupp, Malvestiti Group, Trancerie Emiliane and others state in a joint note obtained by Kallanish.
The joint call aims at ensuring protection for strategically important electrical steel derivatives such as transformer laminations and stator/rotor cores for generators and electric motors. Also in focus are key electrical steel intensive components such as generators, transformers and motors used in renewables, power distribution and e-mobility.
These products are not currently covered by trade instruments, leaving a gap in the protection of the full value chain. Stakeholders say the Commission’s work should result in an initial legislative proposal within six months of the steel measures entering into force.
Europe’s steel and electrical steel value chain is facing a critical moment as deindustrialisation accelerates and global overcapacity depresses prices. Rising imports, from coils to laminations, rotor and stator cores, and transformer parts, are hitting utilisation rates and margins across the sector, the organisations point out.
Against this backdrop, the European Commission’s 7 October trade regime proposal is seen as a necessary intervention to restore fair competition. Companies in the steel chain are urging adoption by early 2026 so measures can take effect on 1 April “to stabilise the market and restore fair competition”.
While the proposal addresses distortions affecting 28 steel product categories, pressure is spreading fast to steel derivatives and downstream components used in energy-transition technologies and electric motors.
“Steel product protection alone is not sufficient. It could unintentionally expose downstream industries to intensified unfair competition and circumvention practices with the consequence of hollowing out the very industrial value chain it seeks to preserve. That is why we strongly support a coordinated two-step approach to strengthen Europe’s entire industrial ecosystem,” the note concludes.
Due to its high level of complexity, however, trade law experts anticipate the new trade regime is unlikely to be implemented before July 2026.