Market participants across Europe described another day of subdued activity, with both buyers and mills showing little urgency to conclude fresh HRC business. High inventories at service centers and distributors, together with comfortable order books at mills, kept trading largely hand-to-mouth. Several sources said both sides were effectively postponing meaningful decisions until January, when the market expects clearer signals following the holiday slowdown and the full implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Sentiment across the region remained dominated by trade regulation shifts, notably the imminent rollout of CBAM. Market participants continued to digest the European Commission’s newly accepted benchmarks and default emissions values, which several traders said would sharply increase the cost of imports from January onward. Fastmarkets’ estimates pointed to CBAM charges for imported HRC of roughly €23-540 ($26-632) per tonne, depending on origin, rendering most import options unviable in the near term.
The shift was expected to give European mills room to attempt price increases in the first quarter of 2026, although demand-side constraints were widely expected to cap any significant upward momentum.
Northern Europe
Northern European buyers reported that stocks remained more than sufficient to cover short-term needs and availability of imports currently in ports also eased any supply concerns.
Domestic mills, meanwhile, were largely sold out for January and, in several cases, partly for February, offering little volume into the spot market and focusing on long-term contract negotiations with automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). As a result, workable prices in the region continued to cluster around €610-630 per tonne ex-works, with offers heard at €630-650 per tonne ex-works depending on source and delivery window. Larger-volume negotiations at 3,000-5,000 tonnes could touch €600 per tonne ex-works, but such volumes were rarely discussed in recent weeks.
“Nobody buys large tonnages these days — trading is mainly hand-to-mouth,” a buyer in the Benelux area said.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe reflected this standstill in the market, holding in the €621-623 per tonne range throughout the week. Minor day-to-day fluctuations marked a generally flat market, although month-on-month changes still indicated a modest upward trend.
Notably, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €621.67 per tonne on Friday, up by €0.50 per tonne from €621.17 per tonne on Thursday December 11.
The index was down by €0.83 per tonne week on week but up by €10.00 per tonne month on month.
Italy
Italian market conditions mirrored those in the north, with trading exceptionally slow. Local suppliers were sold out for January and targeting €610-630 per tonne ex-works for February delivery, but actual transactions remained scarce.
Buyers reported achievable levels between €600 per tonne and €620 per tonne ex-works, noting that mills held firm on offers.
“Suppliers closed January order books and gradually hope to achieve increases in the first quarter because new imports become totally unmanageable with CBAM rollout,” a buyer in Italy said.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €611.25 per tonne on Friday, down by €1.25 per tonne from €612.50 per tonne on Thursday.
The index was down by €2.08 per tonne week on week but up by €13.33 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, imports into Italy also slowed [LINK]. While some big buyers continued to book overseas coil despite the regulatory uncertainty, most market participants preferred to wait for clearer guidance on CBAM cost implications and remaining safeguard quotas.
