EU HRC market remains stable on low market activity
Domestic European hot-rolled coil prices were stable on Dec. 3, due to slow trading activity and low levels of weak demand in the domestic flat steel market.
“Competition between mills and distributors is intense in the spot market, as service centers are destocking at year-end,” a Germany-based distributor said. The source reported that some mills in southern Europe were undercutting current market prices, although it did not impact prices on the wider spot market.
“The market remains cautious, with limited demand recovery expected in the short term,” the source added.
Market sentiment indicated that a demand recovery after Christmas was necessary to support prices, as well as a reduction in capacity. Supply-side factors are expected to play an important role in supporting prices by decreasing the availability of material in the market.
Platts assessed Northwest European HRC at Eur550/mt ex-works Ruhr on Dec. 3, stable on the day.
An offer was heard at Eur550-570/mt EXW Ruhr.
Platts assessed domestic HRC in Southern Europe at Eur545/mt EXW Italy, stable on the day.
“Imports remain limited due to pricing issues, the Euro/USD exchange rate, and EU safeguards,” according to sources. A reduction in demand for imports helped support demand for material from domestic European mills.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur530/mt CIF Antwerp, stable on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Southern Europe at Eur525/mt CIF Italy, stable on the day.
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Italian HRC mills prepare long stoppages, possible hikes
Italian hot rolled coil prices have maintained stability compared to mid-November, exhibiting a slight increase versus the beginning of the month. Demand is currently weak, and sales are being executed in restricted volumes.
Several Italian mills are set to undergo prolonged shutdowns in conjunction with the December holiday season. A producer plans to significantly reduce output this year to align demand and supply, and will temporarily halt operations at its plant for three weeks between December and January. The company will not take bookings for January and will exclusively accept orders for February due to the prolonged closure. Italian producers have largely completed their December order books, sources tell Kallanish.
The availability of materials in Italy is expected to be limited due to the impending shutdown. Acciaierie d’Italia is currently operating at a diminished capacity. Italian producers of hot-rolled coil are aiming to increase their prices to €600/t ($631/t) delivered. However, clients remain sceptical about the feasibility of this target in the current market conditions. Market participants, including both sellers and buyers, indicate a lack of interest in the import market, as import offers are primarily aligned with domestic HRC contract levels besides the risk of duties. A leading European producer is currently pricing HRC at €600-610/t base ex-works or delivered in various European markets. Current sales activity at these price points is virtually non-existent, but the absence of import alternatives leads sellers to believe that this price level will be reached in Europe.
In the coming weeks, it is expected that customers will ramp up their purchases in Italy in order to stockpile ahead of the impending closures, especially given that one producer will be unable to meet orders for January.
In Italy, service centre quality material is currently being contracted at an average price of €570/t delivered, with reports of some lower contracts around €550/t delivered. A significant number of service centres’ clients will start shutdown in the second week of December, with operations set to resume on 7 January.
Natalia Capra France
EU HRC prices rise, supported by weak import market
Domestic European hot-rolled coil prices rose slightly Oct. 31, as weak import market demand continued to boost the performance of domestic European mills.
Rumored production cuts by mills due to maintenance works are likely to support prices, an Italy-based trader said. Weak demand forecasts for 2025 are expected to factor into mills’ decisions to reduce capacity, the source added.
“Now, there is no demand and there is no money from government(s) supporting the economy like they did in 2020-2021 in the COVID Crisis,” said a Germany-based trader source of the current market situation.
A Germany-based distributor source said that there was no pressure to reduce prices despite low consumption in the European market.
Platts assessed Northwest European HRC at Eur570/mt ex-works Ruhr Oct. 31, up Eur10 on the day.
Offers were reported at Eur600-640/mt EXW Ruhr. Tradable values were at Eur580-590/mt EXW Ruhr.
Platts assessed domestic HRC in Southern Europe at Eur555/mt EXW Italy, stable on the day.
Many market participants remained unwilling to bear the risk of purchasing imports due to CBAM regulations, quotas, antidumping investigations, and retroactive duties on steel arriving this year, according to a Germany based distributor source.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur515/mt CIF Antwerp, stable on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Southern Europe at Eur535/mt CIF Italy, stable on the day.
European mills push for substantially higher HRC offers for Q1 2025 despite subdued demand
Despite subdued consumption, all major European suppliers were looking to achieve higher prices for January and February, Fastmarkets heard.
“Imports are expensive and too risky to book, considering anti-dumping probes and safeguards. If mills [in Europe] adjust production volumes in November and December, they might get a chance to increase [HRC] prices,” a buyer in Germany said.
Northern European producers were offering January-delivery coil at €600-620 ($648-670) per tonne ex-works and even at €640 per tonne ex-works in some cases, sources said. But these prices have not been accepted in deals so far.
Producers continued to offer discounts only for HRC with delivery in the fourth quarter of 2024, Fastmarkets heard. Notably, transactions for December-delivery HRC were reported at €550-560 per tonne ex-works, while offers for such material were around €570-580 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Northern Europe at €555.42 per tonne on Tuesday, up by €5.13 per tonne from €550.29 per tonne on Monday.
The index was down by €1.67 per tonne week on week, but up by €10.21 per tonne month on month.
Sources said that European suppliers were also trying to push spot prices higher ahead of negotiations of long-term contracts with end users for next year.
“Mills are trying to strengthen their position… ahead of signing long-term contracts with automakers,” a buyer source said.
Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) were asking for discounts of up to €200 per tonne, which is “unacceptable” from suppliers’ point of view.
Long-term contracts with OEMs in the automotive industry for the second half of 2024 were closed at €730-750 per tonne – and even at €700 per tonne in some cases, compared with €800 per tonne in the first half of the year.
In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Italy at €548.63 per tonne on Tuesday, up by €1.63 per tonne from €547.00 per tonne on Monday.
The Italian index was up by €0.50 per tonne week on week and up by €6.96 per tonne month on month.
Suppliers in Italy were offering December-delivery HRC at €570-580 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €560-570 per tonne ex-works, Fastmarkets heard.
But for such material, buyer estimates for the tradable market level were still reported at no higher than €540-550 per tonne ex-works.
“Negotiations [for December HRC sales] are still underway; mills’ asking prices are too high,” a buyer in Italy said.
Import prices, meanwhile, remain uncompetitive and no fresh business was completed on Tuesday, sources told Fastmarkets.
In Italy, November-shipment HRC from Turkey was on offer at €580-590 per tonne CFR to Italy, including the anti-dumping duty, while Asian material was on offer at €550-570 per tonne CFR.
Last week, the European Commission started registering all HRC imports from Egypt, India, Japan and Vietnam, paving the way for the potential retroactive application of anti-dumping duties, Fastmarkets reported.
EU starts registration of HRC imports from Egypt, India, Japan, Vietnam
This means that “if the necessary conditions are fulfilled,” anti-dumping duties could then be “levied retroactively on the registered imports in accordance with the applicable legal provisions.”
The Commission launched an anti-dumping probe against HRC imports from the four countries in August.
For the period from January to December 2023, HRC imports from the four countries were subject to different dumping duties, with Egyptian material at 30-40%, HRC from Japan at 10-20%, Indian HRC facing duties of 10% and Vietnamese material at 5-15%, according to the notice in the journal.
In 2023, the EU imported 9.22 million tonnes of HRC, according to Global Trade Tracker statistics. And, of the HRC total, Egypt supplied 753,115 tonnes, India 1.17 million tonnes, Japan 1.09 million tonnes and Vietnam contributed 1.16 million tonnes. The combined 4.19 million tonnes amounted to 45% of total HRC imports the EU in 2023.
Market impact
Market participants told Fastmarkets the latest anti-dumping move by the EU was no unexpected and said it will further limit interest in buying overseas HRC.
“There is basically only one ‘safe’ origin to import from now – Turkey,” a buyer in Italy told Fastmarkets. “But the offer prices [from the Turkish mills] right now are totally uncompetitive.”
A second buyer said the “AD probe and changes to safeguard measures will significantly limit demand” for all overseas coil.
“The effect of the [lack of imports to the EU] will start to show in the first quarter of next year [and the lack of imports] is likely to support a domestic HRC price rebound in Europe,” the second buyer added.
In the week to October 25, November-shipment HRC from Turkey was on offer to Italy at €580-590 ($627-637) per tonne CFR, including an anti-dumping duty of 4.70-7.30%, which has been in place since July 2021.
From Asia, offers were reported at €550-570 per tonne CFR to Italy.
In contrast, Italy-origin HRC, with five- or six-week lead times, was offered at a similar levels – around €570-580 per tonne delivered – which would net back to €560-570 per tonne ex-works, with possible discounts of no more than €10 per tonne, Fastmarkets understands.
Buyer ideas of the tradable level were lower, however, at closer to €540-560 per tonne delivered (€530-550 per tonne ex-works).
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy at €546.25 per tonne on October 24, down by €2.13 per tonne from €548.38 per tonne a day earlier and down by €5.63 per tonne week on week and by €6.25 per tonne month on month.
Fastmarkets calculated its corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe at €549.38 per tonne on Thursday, down by only €0.62 per tonne from €550.00 per tonne a day earlier.
European HRC prices stable amid limited trading
Demand from final consumers remained low, with some mills in Northern Europe still offering end-November-delivery material, sources told Fastmarkets.
Buyers were very cautious and wanting to see the market situation after the international sheet metal exhibition in Hannover, Germany on October 22-25, according to sources.
Mills in Northern Europe were heard offering HRC at €580-590 ($631-642) per tonne ex-works, but were ready to be more flexible in negotiations, Fastmarkets understands.
“Demand is currently so low that mills are selling material at the old prices from before ArcelorMittal’s announcement of a price increase of €40 per tonne for all new bookings,” one buyer source told Fastmarkets.
Producers were initially pushing for offer prices of €40 per tonne higher, but would now be happy to get €10-15 per tonne more.
Buyer estimations of the workable market level were mainly at €540-560 per tonne ex-works.
Some producers shared a more optimistic view on the tradeable market level, saying that consumers who really need to book material for the beginning of next year were ready to pay slightly higher prices.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel HRC index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €555.29 ($604.03) per tonne on Thursday, up by €0.29 per tonne from €555.00 per tonne on Wednesday.
The index was up by €8.12 per tonne week on week, but down by €9.71 per tonne month on month.
In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ daily steel HRC index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €551.88 per tonne on Thursday, up by just €0.21 per tonne from €551.67 per tonne on Wednesday.
The Italian index was up by €11.88 per tonne week on week, but down by €13.12 per tonne month on month.
Local suppliers were heard offering HRC at €580-590 per tonne delivered, which nets back to €570-580 per tonne ex-works.
Buyer estimations for the workable market level were lower at €540-555 per tonne ex-works.
Import offers remained uncompetitive, with European customers buying material mainly from the local market, Fastmarkets understands.
Offers from Taiwan, Japan and South Korea were heard at €580-590 per tonne CFR Italy, while Vietnamese HRC was on offer at €555-560 per tonne CFR Italy, according to sources.
Turkish HRC was on offer to Italy at €580-590 per tonne CFR, sources said.
But the workable level for imports was estimated at just €520 per tonne CFR, with some bids heard at that level but no deals confirmed.
Italian HRC buyers clear customs, fear high duties
The hot rolled coil market in Italy is currently facing notable stagnation, characterised by low order volumes and subdued consumption from end-users and coil service centres, industry sources tell Kallanish.
As of 1 October, the majority of HRC import buyers successfully cleared through customs the stocks they had in consignment at ports, coinciding with the renewal of EU import quotas.
It is anticipated that Italian buyers will incur an average duty of approximately 10%, or potentially slightly less, contingent upon the material’s origin. The duty rates for HRC stand at 4.2% from Egypt, 7.5% from Taiwan, 12.5% from Japan and 10.5% from Vietnam.
Contracts that were implemented in March and April at HRC pricing more than €100/tonne ($110.3) higher than current levels will be subject to duty payments. Service centres and re-roller sources indicate they will face significant financial challenges due to the duty, particularly in light of current low consumption levels and soft pricing.
A service centre doubts the recent increases implemented by ArcelorMittal will be successfully passed on downstream. “Certain customers are facing challenges in maintaining production levels throughout the week. Some have resorted to reducing their output. Additionally, the automotive industry, along with other sectors, is currently unable to absorb the existing steel production levels,” the source comments. A re-roller anticipates values may begin to rise gradually and expects customer activity to increase in October, following the sluggish purchasing observed in September.
Another service centre believes existing coil and derivative capacity is excessive. This, coupled with service centres’ high stocks, may hinder any prices hike.
Service centre quality HRC values in Italy are at approximately €530/t base ex-works but the level of €520/t has been heard in Germany. Cold rolled and hot-dipped galvanised coil are at €650-670/t base ex-works, with the low point of the range being paid for CRC.
ArcelorMittal told customers last week it is raising coil offers in Europe, with immediate effect. The steelmaker is now reported to be offering HRC at €590/t base ex-works, up some €40/t compared with offers registered last month. Other northern European producers are following suit (see Kallanish passim).
Natalia Capra France
European HRC market lacks clear direction; ‘wait-and-see’ sentiment prevails
Last week, a leading European steelmaker increased its offer price for November-delivery HRC to €590 ($647) per tonne ex-works or delivered, depending on the region, Fastmarkets reported.
On Monday, however, mills in Germany had not announced new higher offers, Fastmarkets understands.
“We are expecting some German mills to come back in the market with new prices this week,” a trader source based in Germany told Fastmarkets.
Some European producers and buyers are waiting for the Chinese Golden Week holiday (October 1-7) to come to an end before predicting the price developments in the global flat steel market, according to sources.
As a result, trading remained quiet on Monday.
One mill in Northern Europe was heard offering HRC at €550-560 per tonne ex-works, which was €20-25 per tonne higher than its previous offer, a buyer source told Fastmarkets.
According to the buyer, the previous offer levels could also be available for buyers, however.
Sources indicated the workable market level for HRC in Northern Europe at €530-550 per tonne ex-works.
A second buyer source told Fastmarkets that for larger tonnages even lower prices of €520-530 per tonne ex-works could be achieved.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €538.08 per tonne on Monday, down by €2.75 per tonne from €540.83 per tonne on October 4.
The index was down by €3.59 per tonne week on week and by €42.67 per tonne month on month.
In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €540.00 per tonne on Monday, up by €5.00 per tonne from €535.00 per tonne on October 4.
The Italian index was up by just €1.00 per tonne week on week and down by €40.24 per tonne month on month.
Fastmarkets sources estimated the workable market level for HRC in Italy at €530-550 per tonne ex-works.
Some customers in Italy have indicated that they could accept a price level of €550 per tonne ex-works, but suppliers in Italy were asking for even higher prices, according to a third buyer source.
Regarding imports, trading also remained muted due to the Golden Week holiday in China. Most Asian suppliers have withdrawn their offers and are expected to return with new higher levels later this week.
European HRC prices edge lower on sluggish demand, continuing destocking
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel HRC index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €541.67 ($604.66) per tonne on Monday, down by €3.54 per tonne from €545.21 on Friday September 27.
The index was down by €14.33 per tonne week on week and by €49.58 per tonne month on month.
Official offers remained limited in the market, with deal prices decided on case by case basis, Fastmarkets understands.
One integrated mill in Northern Europe was heard offering HRC at €570 per tonne ex-works.
But market participants estimated the workable level at €530-550 per tonne ex-works.
One buyer source told Fastmarkets the situation was likely to change once China’s Golden Week national holiday (October 1-7) had come to an end.
The source said China would change the direction of steel prices after the holidays, leading to an uptick that will even be felt in the European HRC market.
On Friday, China’s central bank announced several measures to support the economy to meet this year’s 5% growth target, resulting in positive sentiment across the Chinese steel market.
But a second buyer source told Fastmarkets the situation in Europe might turn out to be more complicated.
“The automotive industry is still struggling and destocking continues,” the source said, adding that that rock bottom HRC prices might be close and that some positive changes were likely before the end of the year.
In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ corresponding daily steel HRC index domestic, exw Italy was €539.00 per tonne on Monday, down by €2.67 per tonne from €541.67 per tonne on Friday.
The Italian index was down by €17.25 per tonne week on week and by €52.25 per tonne month on month.
In Italy, one domestic supplier was heard offering HRC at €560 per tonne delivered, with lead times ranging from late October to early November. This would be equivalent to €545-550 per tonne ex-works, according to sources.
Other European suppliers were heard offering HRC to Italy at a similar level, but some deals were heard at €540 per tonne ex-works, Fastmarkets understands.
Buyer estimates for the workable market level came in at €540-550 per tonne ex-works.
Some sources said that even €520-530 per tonne ex-works could be achieved for larger tonnages, although such levels could not be widely confirmed.
Interest in imported HRC, meanwhile, remained limited in Europe.
EU HRC market remains largely stable as buyers avoid bookings
Domestic prices for European hot-rolled coil remained largely stable on Sept. 20, as buying activity remained limited in the market due to low end-user demand.
“Buyers, such as service centers and distributors, are not in a great position to offload material,” an Italy-based mill source said. “Therefore, they are not in a great rush to buy. End-user demand is just not enough.”
“Pricing is not the problem,” a distributor source said. “Problem is low/no demand.”
Platts assessed Northwest European HRC stable on the day at Eur555/mt ex-works Ruhr on Sept. 20. Tradable values were reported at Eur550/mt EXW Ruhr from a buy-side source.
Platts assessed domestic HRC prices in Southern Europe also stable on the day at Eur555/mt EXW Italy, with tradable values reported at Eur540-580/mt EXW Italy.
Sources said that production overcapacity in Asia has made it difficult for European suppliers to compete with them. However, interest in imports still remained weak due to concerns around safeguard duties and anti-dumping investigations.
“Production overcapacity in Asia is making things difficult for EU suppliers,” a service center source said.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur540/mt CIF Antwerp, down Eur5 on the day.
Meanwhile, Platts assessed imported HRC in Southern Europe at Eur540/mt CIF Italy, up Eur5 on the day.