Northern Europe HRC prices hit lowest level since December 2020
The downtrend has persisted in the European HRC market since the beginning of September.
Trading remained very slow, with distributors and steel service centers having no need to restock due to continued weak end-user demand, Fastmarkets heard. Besides, sources said they were expecting prices to sink deeper and therefore preferred to hold back from bookings.
“Lead times from mills are very short; you can get [HRC] in under four weeks in some cases,” a buyer source in Germany said.
Offers in the country were reported at €570-580 ($629-640) per tonne ex-works, while in the Benelux area, one integrated mill was sticking to €600 per tonne ex-works.
Rare transactions were heard done at €560-570 per tonne ex-works in Northern Europe.
Some suppliers were undercutting that mark, but for large tonnages, Fastmarkets heard.
Notably, several sources reported transactions done at €530-540 per tonne ex-works from one integrated supplier for large volumes of HRC, but they pointed out that those were rather “special deals with special customers,” and that such low prices were not widely available in the spot market.
As a result, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €566.25 per tonne on Friday, down by €4.81 per tonne from €571.06 per tonne on Tuesday September 12.
This is the lowest mark since December 2020.
The index was down by €14.50 per tonne week on week and by €50.00 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, in Southern Europe, Fastmarkets calculated its corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy at €570.00 per tonne on Friday, down by €0.63 per tonne from €570.63 per tonne on the previous day.
The Italian index was down by €10.24 per tonne week on week and by €45.00 per tonne month on month.
HRC offer prices from domestic suppliers were heard around €585-590 per tonne delivered, which nets back to about €575-580 per tonne ex-works.
Lead times were about four to six weeks, sources said.
Bids for such material were reported at €550-560 per tonne ex-works, but domestic suppliers were heard to be rejecting bids on the lower end of the range.
Trading was also quiet in Italy. Expectations have been bearish due to poor end-user demand, oversupply and the price downtrend in raw materials, Fastmarkets understands.
Meanwhile, the import HRC market was also slow because of a small gap between import and domestic prices, as well as trade defense measures in the European Union.
Turkish HRC was offered to Italy at €550 per tonne CFR, including the anti-dumping duty, sources said.
Asia-origin coil was reportedly on offer at €540-550 per tonne CFR.
HRC from India was heard offered to Italy at $600-620 per tonne CFR, depending on the supplier.
Most overseas suppliers were reportedly offering shipment on end-October to early November, which means January arrival.
European HRC market remains stable amid muted activity
Domestic prices for European hot-rolled coil remained stable on Sept. 12, on muted market activity as buyers remained cautious amid expectations of further decreases in prices later in the year.
Additionally, prices seemed to be experiencing more of a downward pressure within Northern Europe amid worsening macroeconomic factors, while Southern Europe remains relatively stable, sources said.
“Booking prices dropping further down,” a distributor source said. “Seems Southern Europe is doing better than Northern Europe right now.”
Sources noted that many consumers were holding off buying any more material in the hopes that prices continued to become more favorable towards the end of the year. Additionally, inventory levels remained high, further dampening demand for domestic material.
“We need to follow booking prices carefully,” the distributor source said. “Customers are still looking where prices are bottoming.”
Platts assessed Northwest European HRC at Eur565/mt ex-works Ruhr on Sept. 12, stable on the day
Offers were reported at Eur570/mt EXW Ruhr.
Meanwhile, Platts assessed domestic HRC prices in Southern Europe at Eur570/mt EXW Italy, stable on the day.
Tradable values were reported at Eur570-575/mt EXW Italy.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe stable on the day at Eur559/mt CIF Antwerp and imported HRC in Southern Europe stable on the day at Eur555/mt CIF Italy.
Regarding green steel, prices in Europe continued to fluctuate, particularly as consumers were hesitant to purchase new material at a premium compared to conventional steel.
Faced with the existing pressure in the coils market, green steel has also struggled to attract the necessary demand, especially for the automotive industry, which is facing increasing costs and a lull in demand. As a result, prices for green steel could differ significantly.
“The exact premiums can vary,” the distributor source said. “[It can be] based on demand and regional factors.”
Platts assessed carbon-accounted HRC Ruhr at Eur660/mt EXW Ruhr, stable on the day.
Geraint Moody | Devbrat Saha
Northwest European coil market deems price hike unlikely
Despite efforts by mills last month to bring coil prices up somewhat, the prices paid on the market have, in fact, continued retreating.
Some European mills were trying to increase their prices by €20-30/tonne ($22-33), “but in reality, prices are getting more and more downward pressure. There is still too much material around, and demand is not in balance with supply,” a buyer at a Dutch steel user tells Kallanish. “I do not see any clear signals that the European market will improve in the next weeks.”
Transactions are now frequently undercutting the mark of €600/tonne ($667) for hot rolled coil. Another Dutch source assesses the range of spot market prices within the EU for HRC, at between €580/t and €620/t, “depending on volumes, region, quoting mills and desired lead time”, he points out.
Lead times can be extraordinarily short these days. “Four to six weeks is possible, but even sooner if required,” the Dutch buyer says. He expresses sympathy for the mills’ ongoing suffering and notes they are very accommodating as they are vying for the sparse order volume on the market.
Meanwhile, a Belgium-based trader tells of comments he hears from Poland. Customers there are even expecting that mills will lower their prices for October. It is not quite clear if that would apply to Polish/Central European mills, or also to close-by German mills. “But I am sure that will not be their [mills’] official statement,” the trader says.
Christian Koehl Germany
European HRC prices inch down amid downward pressure, weak fundamentals
Domestic prices for European hot-rolled coil fell slightly Aug. 30, amid downward pressure and weak market fundamentals.
“Prices are under a lot of pressure,” a distributor source said. “There have been no changes from stockholders and end-users.”
“Market is still quiet,” a trader source said. “And there is a lot of uncertainty as well.”
Sources noted that some change is expected in the coming weeks, but the direction of the market remains unclear, with some expecting prices to fall by as much as Eur50 by the end of the year.
Others have continued suggesting that it remains down to the supply-side of the industry to reduce capacities to boost price recovery.
“Saw a little more activity,” the trader source said. “Expected to see change since all companies are back [from holidays].”
“Activity will not be better, demand will be low,” the distributor source said. “Need to see changes from the supply side, otherwise prices will fall further.”
Furthermore, the European Commission antidumping investigation continues to loom over the market, with some market participants fearing that in the long term there may be supply issues once consumers start avoiding the export countries in question. Some market sources are speculating that Turkey may remain the best alternative option to fill the gap in the market.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe stable on the day at Eur559/mt CIF Antwerp.
Platts assessed Northwest European HRC at Eur590/mt ex-works Ruhr Aug. 30, down Eur5 on the day.
Meanwhile, Platts assessed domestic HRC prices in Southern Europe at Eur590/mt ex-works Italy Aug. 30, down Eur5 on the day.
European HRC market remains quiet amid holidays; slow demand clouds expectations
Trading has paused in the European HRC market amid due to the summer vacation, with both buyers and sellers remaining on sidelines.
“The market is on a stand-by mode. There will be no real changes until the end of August, early September, when everyone is back,” a buyer source said.
Firm offers were rare in the past couple of weeks.
One supplier in Northern Europe was reportedly aiming for €650-660 ($710-721) per tonne ex-works for October-delivery HRC.
This was above indications of tradeable levels from buyers, however, which came in at €600-620 per tonne ex-works.
Sources suggested that restocking in September might provide some limited support to domestic HRC prices, but subdued real demand would not allow for a strong rebound.
“Apparently, we will see some restocking after summer holidays, and buyers will likely try to source more [HRC] domestically, considering all trade restriction we have in place. But restocking alone is not enough for a sustainable [HRC] price recovery,” a second buyer said.
As a result, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €616.25 per tonne on Tuesday, down by €3.75 per tonne from €620.00 per tonne on Monday August 12.
The index was down by €3.75 per tonne week on week and by €15.88 per tonne month on month.
In Southern Europe, meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was €615.00 per tonne on Tuesday, down by €2.50 per tonne from €617.50 per tonne on the previous day.
The index was down by €5.00 per tonne week on week and by €11.00 per tonne month on month.
The Italian market was also quiet because of the holidays.
Buyers estimated workable prices at €600-620 per tonne ex-works. No firm offers were reported on Tuesday.
“Mills have begun maintenance period. New [HRC] offers will be announced in a couple of weeks,” a third buyer in Europe said.
The market for imported coil was also largely quiet after news about the European Commission’s anti-dumping (AD) probe against HRC from Vietnam, India, Japan and Egypt emerged last week.
A buyer source said offers from Vietnam and India ranged €560-575 per tonne CFR.
Several sources said there was an offer from a Japanese supplier at €580 per tonne CFR to Southern Europe for October-shipment HRC.
Sources reported that several suppliers from the four countries affected by the probe said they would continue to offer HRC to Europe until the results of the investigation are announced.
October-shipment HRC from Turkish mills was offered at €570-590 per tonne CFR, including duty.
EC notifies Vietnam of HRC dumping complaint
The European Commission said it has notified Vietnam that it has received a complaint for the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation into imports of hot-rolled coils (HRC).
The commission did not identify who filed the complaint against Vietnam.
Should a probe be launched, the commission may decide to pick a sample of exporters to investigate because of the large number of producers from Vietnam.
Market participants have expected an EU investigation into Vietnamese HRC imports since volumes started picking up. Last year Vietnamese imports of HRC into the EU rose to 1.13mn t, from 400,000t in 2022. Vietnam has frequently been the lowest-priced supplier on the market, targeting primarily large buyers and pure commodity grade coils. Since the launch of the Argus HRC cif Italy origin differentials earlier this year, Vietnam has traded at a discount.
There is talk that an investigation into Vietnamese hot-dip galvanised (HDG) could be launched too, and a probe into HRC imports from major ‘other countries’ such as Taiwan, Japan and Egypt..
Vietnam itself has this week launched a dumping investigation on imports of HRC from China and India and previously into HDG from China.
By Lora Stoyanova
European HRC prices remain mostly steady on weak demand, muted activity
In the first half of this year, demand for flat steel products has been lower compared to last year, primarily due to unfavorable market fundamentals stemming from slow growth in both the automotive and construction industries.
Similarly, consumer demand for imported coils has remained mostly muted due to the implementation of EU safeguard measures. There has been some interest in coils of Turkish origin, mainly due to comparable lead times, sources said.
Platts assessed Northwest European HRC at Eur625/mt ex-works Ruhr July 26, down Eur5/mt.
Tradable values were reported at Eur610-640/mt ex-works Ruhr.
Meanwhile, Platts assessed domestic HRC prices in Southern Europe stable on the day at Eur625/mt ex-works Italy July 26.
Tradable values were reported at Eur620/mt.
Geraint Moody | Devbrat Saha
HRC prices hold across Europe; Australia-origin cargo booked to Italy
Offers of HRC in Northern Europe were reported at €640-670 ($698-731) per tonne ex-works or delivered for August-September delivery, but buyers’ price ideas were heard no higher than €620-630 per tonne ex-works.
Some bids were even reported at €600 per tonne ex-works, but mills in the region were reluctant to accept such low prices.
In general, trading in the region remained dull, and the spot market continued to be “heavily oversupplied,” sources said.
“The automotive industry is taking less volumes [of HRC], so extra tonnages go to the spot market,” a buyer in Germany said.
The effects of new EU import safeguard measures were yet to be felt in the market, and sources said it would take them “six to nine months to clear [import] tonnages which are currently in the pipeline.”
“Nobody is missing [HRC] volumes in Europe — on the contrary, mills are fighting for every single tonne, so a price increase is only wishful thinking of mills,” a buyer in the Benelux area said.
Negotiations with the automotive industry for contracts for the second half of 2024 were still under way, sources said, with no progress reported so far.
“Mills and buyers are just dragging time,” a consumer source in Germany said.
For the first half of 2024, HRC contracts with original equipment manufacturers in the automotive industry have reportedly been signed at €750-800 per tonne.
Buyers have reportedly been seeking discounts of €100 per tonne for the second half of the year, while producers are aiming for a rollover, sources said.
“No rollover is possible [for contract prices in the second half of 2024], the gap with spot [prices] will be too wide,” a second source in Germany said. “But, equally, a €100 per tonne discount is very unlikely.”
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €631.25 ($688.26) per tonne on Tuesday, flat from Monday July 15.
The index was down by €1.88 per tonne week on week and by €3.75 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, in Southern Europe, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy at €620.00 per tonne on Tuesday, down by €5.00 per tonne from €625.00 per tonne on Monday.
The index was down by €8.33 per tonne week on week and by €11.88 per tonne month on month.
An integrated mill in Italy was heard offering August-September delivery coil at €640-650 per tonne delivered in the country, which nets back to €630-640 per tonne ex-works.
Bids for such material were heard at €600-610 per tonne delivered, but European mills deemed such prices as “unworkable.”
Transactions were heard done from a re-roller in Italy at €620 per tonne ex-works for small lots of coil.
A cargo of HRC from Australia was booked to Italy at €580 per tonne CFR recently, sources said.
“[Australia] is an unusual origin for Italy to book from, but with key major suppliers [Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, Egypt] basically out of the game due to new [EU import] safeguards, it was only a matter of time for new suppliers to emerge,” a buyer in Italy said.
No new offers were reported from Asia.
Sources reported HRC offers from India and Saudi Arabia at €595-605 per tonne CFR to Italy.
European HRC market experiences quiet start to the week
The price of European domestic hot-rolled coil remained largely unchanged, as the industry is now in the holiday season, with many market participants currently out.
Some market sources believe that mills are still attempting to test the market by increasing prices, but others remain skeptical, stating that consumer interest is not present enough in the market for there to be any change.
“I think European mills will definitely try to increase prices,” one trader said.
“Market is still too low and will be for the rest of the year,” a service center source said. “There is no activity in the market.”
With demand remaining low and supply remaining well ahead in Europe, some market sources have commented that mills are struggling to find orders.
“The market is flat, mills are desperate for quantities,” a distributor said. As long as consumption doesn’t pick up, there will not be any change in prices, the distributor added.
Platts assessed Northwest European HRC stable on the day at Eur625/mt ex-works Ruhr on July 15.
Meanwhile, Platts assessed domestic HRC prices in Southern Europe also stable on the day at Eur625/mt ex-works Italy on July 15.
Some indications were heard for carbon accounted steel, with an offer for premium reported at Eur95-140/mt, with a CO2 content around 0mt at scopes 1-2.
Platts assessed the carbon-accounted premium for HRC in Europe down Eur5/mt on the day at Eur120/mt July 15.
Geraint Moody
European HRC prices largely flat despite mills’ attempts to raise offers
Several sources said that European mills were aiming for a price increase of around €20 ($22) per tonne for HRC with lead times early in the fourth quarter.
Offers from some integrated mills in northern Europe for such material were heard at €650-670 per tonne ex-works or delivered.
But sources said that €630-640 per tonne ex-works for September-delivery coil was still “negotiable.”
Italy-origin coil for September delivery was heard offered to Germany at €650-660 per tonne delivered.
“Mills try to raise prices, but distributors take a wait-and-see mode,” a buyer in the Benelux area said.
But sources said that most mills still have not closed order books for September-delivery coil, so a price increase was still uncertain.
“Order books for September still need to be filled, [most] mills need orders, so this push for an increase doesn’t look realistic,” a buyer source in Germany said.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €632.50 per tonne on Thursday, up slightly by €0.83 per tonne from €631.67 on Wednesday July 10.
The index was up by €1.37 per tonne week on week but down by €2.92 per tonne month on month.
Industry sources once again claimed that steel output cuts could be “a real game changer” for the oversupplied European HRC market, but integrated suppliers have not confirmed any equipment stoppages so far.
Meanwhile, in Southern Europe, Fastmarkets calculated its corresponding daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy at €626.25 per tonne on Thursday, down by €2.50 per tonne from €628.75 per tonne on Wednesday.
The index was up by €2.50 per tonne week on week but down by €5.00 per tonne month on month.
In Italy, September-delivery HRC was offered by a local supplier at €640-650 per tonne delivered, which corresponds to €630-640 per tonne ex-works.
Buyer sources estimated achievable prices at slightly lower levels – €620-630 per tonne ex-works.
But trading in Italy was sluggish, with mainly hand-to-mouth booking for small tonnages reported in the week.
The import HRC market was also silent; key Asian suppliers – Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan – have exceeded their allocation for third-quarter deliveries, Fastmarkets reported.
Offers of HRC from Turkey were available at €610 per tonne CFR, including the anti-dumping duty.
