Holiday lull keeps European steel HRC market quiet
Most of the sources Fastmarkets contacted during the day said that they would be out of the market until next week.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was assessed at €627.50 ($735.50) per tonne on Friday, unchanged since December 24.
The index was unchanged week on week, but was up by €9.17 per tonne month on month.
The latest official offers from Northern European mills for February/March-delivery HRC were heard at €630-670 per tonne ex-works or delivered. But estimates of tradable values were still below €630 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €623.12 per tonne ex-works on Friday, also unchanged since December 24.
The index was also unchanged week on week, but was up by €19.99 per tonne month on month.
European HRC market quiet due to year-end holidays
Fastmarkets’ daily steel HRC index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €627.50 ($738.13) per tonne on Wednesday, unchanged since December 24.
The index was unchanged week on week, but up by €12.50 per tonne month on month.
The latest official offers from Northern European mills for February/March-delivery HRC were heard at €630-670 per tonne ex-works or delivered. But estimations of tradable levels were still below €630 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel HRC index domestic, exw Italy was €623.12 per tonne ex-works on Wednesday, also unchanged since December 24.
The index was unchanged week on week, but up by €20.62 per tonne month on month. The latest estimates of workable levels were reported at €610-620 per tonne ex-works.
Europe sees continued standstill in HRC trading amid regulatory uncertainty
Market participants across Europe described another day of subdued activity, with both buyers and mills showing little urgency to conclude fresh HRC business. High inventories at service centers and distributors, together with comfortable order books at mills, kept trading largely hand-to-mouth. Several sources said both sides were effectively postponing meaningful decisions until January, when the market expects clearer signals following the holiday slowdown and the full implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Sentiment across the region remained dominated by trade regulation shifts, notably the imminent rollout of CBAM. Market participants continued to digest the European Commission’s newly accepted benchmarks and default emissions values, which several traders said would sharply increase the cost of imports from January onward. Fastmarkets’ estimates pointed to CBAM charges for imported HRC of roughly €23-540 ($26-632) per tonne, depending on origin, rendering most import options unviable in the near term.
The shift was expected to give European mills room to attempt price increases in the first quarter of 2026, although demand-side constraints were widely expected to cap any significant upward momentum.
Northern Europe
Northern European buyers reported that stocks remained more than sufficient to cover short-term needs and availability of imports currently in ports also eased any supply concerns.
Domestic mills, meanwhile, were largely sold out for January and, in several cases, partly for February, offering little volume into the spot market and focusing on long-term contract negotiations with automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). As a result, workable prices in the region continued to cluster around €610-630 per tonne ex-works, with offers heard at €630-650 per tonne ex-works depending on source and delivery window. Larger-volume negotiations at 3,000-5,000 tonnes could touch €600 per tonne ex-works, but such volumes were rarely discussed in recent weeks.
“Nobody buys large tonnages these days — trading is mainly hand-to-mouth,” a buyer in the Benelux area said.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe reflected this standstill in the market, holding in the €621-623 per tonne range throughout the week. Minor day-to-day fluctuations marked a generally flat market, although month-on-month changes still indicated a modest upward trend.
Notably, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was €621.67 per tonne on Friday, up by €0.50 per tonne from €621.17 per tonne on Thursday December 11.
The index was down by €0.83 per tonne week on week but up by €10.00 per tonne month on month.
Italy
Italian market conditions mirrored those in the north, with trading exceptionally slow. Local suppliers were sold out for January and targeting €610-630 per tonne ex-works for February delivery, but actual transactions remained scarce.
Buyers reported achievable levels between €600 per tonne and €620 per tonne ex-works, noting that mills held firm on offers.
“Suppliers closed January order books and gradually hope to achieve increases in the first quarter because new imports become totally unmanageable with CBAM rollout,” a buyer in Italy said.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €611.25 per tonne on Friday, down by €1.25 per tonne from €612.50 per tonne on Thursday.
The index was down by €2.08 per tonne week on week but up by €13.33 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, imports into Italy also slowed [LINK]. While some big buyers continued to book overseas coil despite the regulatory uncertainty, most market participants preferred to wait for clearer guidance on CBAM cost implications and remaining safeguard quotas.
European domestic HRC prices decrease slightly, market awaits new regulations
According to sources, the market still awaits more clarity on impending regulations, including the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is set to enter its definitive phase on January 1.
In Northern Europe, estimates of workable prices for HRC were heard around €610 ($709) per tonne ex-works.
No deals were reported during the day.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was calculated at €619.58 per tonne on Wednesday, down by €3.23 per tonne from €622.81 per tonne on Tuesday December 9.
The index was up by €2.08 per tonne week on week and by €9.58 per tonne month on month.
In Italy, estimates of workable prices were heard within the range of €600-610 per tonne ex-works. No fresh deals were heard.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €612 per tonne on Wednesday, down by €1.75 per tonne from €613.75 per tonne on Tuesday.
The index was up by €11.17 per tonne week on week and by €15.75 per tonne month on month.
Eurofer forecasts growth in EU steel consumption for 2026; outlook for 2025 bleak
Eurofer said apparent steel consumption would grow by 3% in 2026, revising down its previous forecast of 3.1% growth and leaving it well below pre-pandemic levels. That growth, however, depends on the performance of the industrial sector and the easing of geopolitical tensions.
Eurofer also confirmed its earlier projection for 2025 of a 0.2% drop in apparent steel consumption to 128 million tonnes, with a 0.5% decline in consumption by steel-using sectors, revised from a previously forecast decline of 0.7%.
The downward trajectory in steel consumption follows previous drops observed in the market, with apparent steel consumption falling by 1.8% year on year in the second quarter of 2025, according to Eurofer.
Flat steel prices experienced some growth in the third quarter of 2025 in response to the EU’s impending Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the introduction of new steel safeguards, which are expected to reduce import volumes when they come into effect in 2026.
A lack of end-user demand, however, paired with cheap overseas imports, has kept growth limited.
“European steelmakers cannot yet see the end of the tunnel,” Eurofer director general Axel Eggert said.
According to Eggert, new trade measures must be implemented “as a matter of urgency” to prevent further “stockpiling of cheap imports,” which, he added, would “nullify the effectiveness of the measures for the entire year.”
Fastmarkets’ steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe averaged €610.48 ($708.84) per tonne in November, a 3.58% increase from an average of €589.40 per tonne in October.
End-user outlook
Automotive
The output of the EU automotive industry is expected to drop by 3.8% in 2025, following the decline of 9.7% seen in 2024, according to Eurofer data. Meanwhile, a modest growth of 1.4% is expected for 2026.
Eurofer said the auto industry remains highly exposed to trade disruptions and is set to suffer from growing uncertainty, especially following the implementation of new trade tariffs by the US.
Construction
The European construction sector also remains under pressure despite some limited growth in steel consumption. According to Eurofer figures, output in the sector has grown by a modest 0.1% in 2025 and is expected to grow significantly in 2026 by approximately 2.2%.
But Eurofer said construction output in the EU continues to be affected by growing costs for construction materials, lack of labor and worsening economic conditions across the region, despite support from public initiatives like the NextGenerationEU package.
Fastmarkets’ price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar) domestic, delivered Northern Europe averaged €591.25-626.25 per tonne in November, a 0.04% increase from an average of €597-620 per tonne in October.
European domestic HRC market largely quiet; sellers seek higher prices in Central Europe
In Northern Europe, mills’ targets remained in the range of €620-650 per tonne ex-works, with only one re-roller in the region heard offering coil around €600 per tonne ex-works.
Estimates of workable prices still ranged €610-620 per tonne ex-works, with no deals heard on the day.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe moved marginally to €615.00 ($713.00) per tonne on Friday, down by just €0.17 per tonne from €615.17 per tonne on November 27.
The index was up by €2.92 per tonne week on week and by €12.95 per tonne month on month.
In Italy, January-delivery coils were available within the range of €600-620 per tonne ex-works, while workable prices were said to remain below €600 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €602.50 per tonne on Friday, up by €0.42 per tonne from €602.08 per tonne on Thursday.
The index was up by just €0.62 per tonne week on week, but increased by €11.25 per tonne month on month.
In Central Europe, HRC — including material from the leading European supplier — was available at €640-645 CPT(around €630 ex-works) versus €620-630 per tonne CPT heard earlier in November, with some tonnages heard sold at the lower end of the range.
Successful closure of December order books by the key local supplier, the absence of pressure from import material — particularly from Indonesia — as well as the rise in regional pipe prices were cited by sources as some of the key reasons for the increase.
This information, however, emerged after the publication of Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil, domestic, exw Central Europe on Wednesday November 26, when it stood at €610-620 per tonne, unchanged from the week prior.
European steel HRC market remains quiet, awaiting January revival
A buyer source, however, said that mills could deliberately keep some December volumes in stock until January because of an expected price increase connected with the introduction of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in January 2026.
Import regulatory measures were now considered the only driver for growth of local prices, with actual demand leaving much to be desired.
In Northern Europe, January delivery offers varied within the range of €620-650 ($716-751) per tonne ex-works, with the exception of a re-roller in the Benelux area, which offered January-rolling coil at €600 per tonne ex-works.
Estimates of workable prices were heard at €600-620 per tonne ex-works, but there have been few bookings so far, with market sources saying that the active phase will come in several weeks’ time. This price compared with €590 per tonne in the most recent sales of December-delivery cargoes.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was €610.00 ($704.23) per tonne on November 10, up from €606.67 per tonne on November 7.
The index was up by €8.75 per tonne week on week, and up by €32.50 per tonne month on month.
In Italy, the situation was similar with few volumes left for December.
Coil for January delivery was offered at €615-620 per tonne ex-works with estimates of workable prices being closer to €600 per tonne ex-works. No January bookings were heard on November 10, however.
Most recent sales of December-delivery coil were heard within the range of €580-590 per tonne ex-works.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was calculated at €596.25 per tonne on Monday, up by €0.25 per tonne from €596.00 per tonne on Friday.
The index was up by €1.25 per tonne week on week, and up by €51.25 per tonne month on month.
European HRC market steady, eyes on pending changes to import regulations
Several market sources who claimed to have seen the draft document of the measures, which will replace the current safeguard system, said that they will have disruptive effect on import prices. But until this information becomes public, the situation creates a lack of confidence, which also has an effect on the domestic trade.
“There is good business, but it is mostly back to back trade,” a supplier from Northern Europe told Fastmarkets.
Market sources in the region estimated workable prices to vary within the range of €570-580 per tonne ex-works for HRC with lead times of 4-6 weeks, but prices for material traded in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to shift amid the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which takes effect on January 1, 2026.
Current sales volumes and prices were, however, said to be somewhat limited by “careful management of stocks” amid approaching year end.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe was €575 ($674) per tonne on Thursday October 2, unchanged day on day.
The Northern European index dropped by €2.71 week on week, but was stable month on month.
The Italian domestic hot-rolled coil market was also determined by limited trading.
One source estimated the workable price range at €540-550 per tonne ex-works, but another source provided an estimate of €550 per tonne ex-works as a level at which most recent business were done, pointing out to the fact that initiation of an anti-dumping investigation targeting import from five countries resulted in higher demand for domestic material and allowed one of the key suppliers to secure significant volumes with local buyers.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €548.75 per tonne ex-works on Friday, up by €2.92 per tonne from €545.83 per tonne on Thursday.
The Italian index was down by €1.88 per tonne week on week and by €0.42 per tonne month on month.
Interest in imported material was virtually absent, as buyers reportedly sought to avoid the need for customs clearance in the first quarter of 2026 amid ongoing uncertainty over the final valuation of goods under the incoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which continues to raise unanswered questions. Therefore, customer’s focus was said to be on domestic supply.
Central European hot-rolled coil prices were stable in the week to Wednesday October 1, with demand remaining mostly moderate.
Market sources estimated workable levels at around €570-585 per tonne ex-works this week, the same as the previous assessments.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil, domestic, exw Central Europe was also €570-585 per tonne on Wednesday, unchanged week on week.
Davide Montagner in London contributed to this report
EU HRC producers struggle to fill Q4 order books; buyers cautious, sitting on high stocks
November-December delivery HRC was on offer at €590-610 per tonne ex-works from integrated mills in Northern Europe. But sources pointed out that local suppliers were not actively pursuing higher offers for fourth quarter delivery HRC.
“[HRC] offers at €600 [per tonne ex-works] and higher are of the table at the moment. Buyers did not accept,” a steel-service center in the region said.
“Buyers still have sufficient stocks – they booked more coil domestically and overseas in the third quarter, amid bullish moods and CBAM/safeguards concerns,” a mill source said.
The European Commission is expected to publish a legal proposal on new trade measures to replace existing safeguards on October 7, so in line with the previously indicated timeline, several sources familiar with the matter told Fastmarkets.
Achievable prices were reported by buyers in Germany and Benelux area at €570-580 per tonne ex-works.
One German buyer said, that for big volumes [5,000 tonnes and above] it would be possible to negotiate prices below €570 per tonne ex-wokrs, “but nobody was looking to buy big lot [of HRC].”
“Mills have empty order books for December, while buyers don’t need tonnages,” a German buyer said.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe was €577.50 per tonne on Tuesday, down by €0.42 per tonne from €577.92 per tonne on Monday September 29.
The Northern European index was down by €1.25 per tonne week on week and down by €0.83 per tonne month on month.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €550.00 per tonne ex-works on Tuesday, down by €0.63 per tonne from €550,63 per tonne on Monday.
The Italian index was up by €1.25 per tonne week on week and up by €8.33 per tonne month on month.
Trading remained slow in Italian market, and local participants estimated achievable prices for HRC in the nation at €540-550 per tonn ex-works. One source claimed that for large tonnages mills were ready to step down to €530 per tone ex-works.
Official offers were hoovering at around €570 per tonne ex-works, but no sales at such levels were reported.
Overall sources expressed doubts about possibility of uptrend in the upcoming weeks.
“Mills need to sell November, December production, while buyers are not really desperate for volumes,” a local buyer said.
“We will see what quotas look like in October [Q4 allocations open on October 1], calculate inventories and see what needs to be booked,” they added.
Offers for overseas coil were stable on Tuesday. HRC from Turkey was available at around €520-530 per tonne CFR, including the EU anti-dumping duty, for December arrival.
From India, offers were reported at €520-530 per tonne CFR for November-shipment coil.
The lowest offers were reported from Indonesia at €490-500 per tonne CFR. Several sources noted there was a room for €10-15 per tonne discount for a large volumes.
Sluggish demand keeps European HRC market at standstill; lack of clarity on CBAM, safeguards cloud outlook
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe was €577.92 ($676) per tonne on Monday, up by €0.21 per tonne from €577.71 per tonne on September 26.
The Northern European index was up by €0.42 per tonne week on week but down by €0.41 per tonne month on month.
In Germany and the Benelux area, buyers estimated achievable prices at no higher than €570-580 per tonne ex-works on Monday – in line with recent deals.
German mills were offering coil with lead times of five to six weeks around €590-600 per tonne delivered (€580-590 per tonne ex-works).
In the Benelux area, offers were reported at €590-610 per tonne ex-works from integrated mills for November and December delivery and at €560-570 per tonne ex-works from a re-roller.
Trading remained sluggish in the region, however.
Buyer sources told Fastmarkets they had no immediate need to buy HRC and were holding off until there was greater clarity regarding CBAM regulations and upcoming steel safeguard measures.
One source suggested the market direction will become clearer during the Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart, Germany, on October 21-24.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €550.63 per tonne ex-works on Monday, unchanged from September 26.
The Italian index was up by €0.63 per tonne week on week and up by €8.96 per tonne month on month.
Local participants described the Italian HRC market as “stable”, with prices “not moving anywhere yet.”
Mills’ attempts to push domestic HRC prices up to 570-580 per tonne ex-works have been largely unsuccessful so far, according to sources.
Buyers claimed to be well-booked for third and fourth quarters of 2025, “in line with sluggish end-user demand” and therefore were not chasing for tonnages, a distributor source said.
Local and European mills were able to offer November-delivery coil.
“Mills in Europe need to sell; [they are] not desperate for orders yet, however. So, we have a standstill in the market,” a buyer in Italy said.
Buying appetite for imported coil was also limited due to the uncertainty surrounding CBAM and new trade measures.
Smaller and medium-sized buyers told Fastmarkets they were avoiding booking coil overseas due to mounting risks.
“We are not in the market to buy Asian HRC because of CBAM. And also, from other customers I’ve heard they are not buying new imports because of CBAM,” a second buyer said.
“Turkey can be a viable option because they can deliver HRC in December, but [safeguards] quotas remain a risk. Third-quarter allocations were used up quickly; I believe the same will happen with October-December tonnages,” the second buyer added.
“Because of unclear CBAM rules we basically stopped at this moment the import activities,” a third buyer said.
Offers from Turkey were reported around €520-530 per tonne CFR, including the EU anti-dumping duty, for December arrival.
From India, offers were reported at €520-530 per tonne CFR for November-shipment coil.
At the same time, offers from Indonesia and Algeria were heard at €490-500 per tonne CFR.
