Global crude steel production increased by 1% to 152.1 million tonnes in October compared with the same month in 2023, but output fell by 1.6% year on year from January to October, according to the latest worldsteel data published on Friday November 22.
Germany
Crude steel production in Germany rose by 14.7% year on year to 3.2 million tonnes in October. But while Europe’s largest steel producer reported improvements in production in October, as well as a 5% increase in output in the year to October, the Germany steel association, WV Stahl, said the “amount of crude steel produced is still at a very low level.”
The year-to-date rise from January to October was mainly driven by an 11% increase in electric or electric-arc furnace long steel production, while basic-oxygen-furnace (BOF) flat steel output rose only marginally (by 2.6%) over the period, WV Stahl said.
The rise could be explained by low production figures last year when production cuts were introduced in October and November to balance supply and demand in Europe’s steel market.
The increase could also be partially driven by increased production of semi-finished steel products for export to substitute for sanctioned Russian material.
Market sentiment and the demand outlook remains gloomy across Europe, however, with sluggish demand in the downstream markets for finished hot-rolled coil and rebar.
Announcements of planned mill closures and production cuts by major European mills prompted a stark warning from Eurofer and calls for action by the European Union (EU) and its member states.
But the European Union’s 27 member states, nonetheless reported a 2.1% year-on-year uptick in crude steel production from January to October, with 109.3 million tonnes produced during those 10 months.
Europe’s nominal crude steelmaking capacity sits well above 200 million tonnes, according to sources, but EU27 production reached just 126.30 million tonnes in 2023 overall, down from 136.30 million tonnes in 2022 and from 152.60 million tonnes in 2021, according to worldsteel data.
Brazil
The only other top-10 steel producing country with significant year-on-year gains in crude steel output in October was Brazil, with an even higher increase of 16.2%.
Steel production rose by 6% over the first 10 months of 2024 compared with the previous year.
But Brazil broke steel import records across the same 10-month period, according to figures from its national steel association Aço Brasil, published on November 21, despite the adoption of a quota-tariff policy, which was created in June to limit imports of certain materials.
And exports fell by 15.5% in the year to October reaching 8.4 million tonnes compared with 2023, according to Aço Brasil.
Inspired by the US, Brazil’s market participants are pushing to increase trade control mechanisms, with anti-dumping investigations under way for various steel products of Chinese origin.
China
Chinese crude steel production moved up 2.9% year on year in October, but fell by 3% from January to October compared with the same period in 2023.
Slow domestic consumption in the world’s largest steel producing country has led to a flood of steel exiting the country into the global market in recent months, with China’s exports of finished steel in October up 41% year on year to 11.18 million tonnes.
Cheap Chinese imports have challenged the competitiveness of European steel products and have led to an increase in trade protectionism in competitor countries elsewhere.
Russia
Russian crude steel output fell dramatically in October compared with the same month in 2023, due to weakening consumption in the country’s domestic steel market.
Major Russian steelmaker Severstal said it expects demand to drop by 5.7% compared with 2023 levels because the high key rate of the Russian Central Bank is limiting financing options and therefore demand, leading to high inventories.
Russia is also not immune to the stiff competition from Chinese steel suppliers leading to slower sales, and sanctions taken against Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine continue to inhibit trading.
