Downtrend persists in European HRC market; production cuts seen unlikely

European hot-rolled coil prices slid further on Wednesday September 18 due to poor market fundamentals, with producers tending to choose volumes over prices despite deteriorating margins, sources told Fastmarkets.

Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel HRC index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €560.00 ($623.93) per tonne on Wednesday, down by €5.00 per tonne from €565.00 per tonne on September 17 and its lowest level since November 2020.

The index was down by €17.50 per tonne week on week and by €52.50 per tonne month on month.

In Northern Europe, offers for HRC with October lead times were reported at €560-580 per tonne ex-works, depending on the mill, sources said.

Buyers estimated the workable level at €540-560 per tonne ex-works.

“For 1,000-2,000 tonnes it is possible to get €540 per tonne [delivered or ex-works], but such deals are rare in the spot market,” a buyer in Germany told Fastmarkets.

“[Any drop in] raw materials prices immediately gives way for [HRC] prices to be lowered as well,” a mill source said. “All producers are hunting for volume and are prepared to accept very bad margins.”

But buyers largely preferred to hold back in the declining market on Wednesday, sources said, given the poor order intake from end users and the short lead times available from European suppliers.

“Price is not the problem,” a second buyer source said. “There is [just] no demand.”

“If you ask the stock-keeping companies about the stock level, all of them are telling you that the level is [below] average. [Yet] still they don’t feel need to replenish inventories. And I am afraid that demand will stay low at least till and of this year,” the source added.

In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets calculated its corresponding daily steel HRC index domestic, exw Italy at €560.00 per tonne on Wednesday, down by €5.00 per tonne from €565.00 per tonne on September 17.

The Italian index was down by €11.25 per tonne week on week and by €52.50 per tonne month on month.

One Italian supplier was heard offering HRC at €580-590 per tonne delivered, which nets back to €570-580 per tonne ex-works.

Buyers, meanwhile, estimated the tradable value at €550-560 per tonne ex-works and one source reported a large-sized transaction at €560 per tonne delivered (€550 per tonne ex-works).

HRC was on offer to Italy from Asia and Turkey for late-October-November shipment at €540-550 per tonne CFR.

Vietnam-origin coil was on offer at €525-530 per tonne CFR to Antwerp, according to a source.

But buying interest in overseas material was limited by trade restrictions, including safeguard measures and anti-dumping investigations into suppliers from Vietnam, Taiwan, Egypt and Japan.

Published by: Julia Bolotova

fastmarkets.com