European hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have remained mostly stable this week, as market players remained cautious after the European Commission (EC) proposed major changes to current steel import safeguards.
Alongside the ongoing implementation of CBAM, sources described the market as being in a “state of turbulence” with many participants uncertain about future trade conditions. Given this situation, there are currently very few import offers for HRC, as both buyers and sellers adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Local mills in northern Europe are reported to be targeting €600-610/mt ex-works for new orders for December deliveries, the same as last week, though the tradable price level has remained at €570-580/mt ex-works in the north of Europe, with a few market insiders reporting transactions at the abovementioned levels.
Meanwhile, in Italy, indicative offers from mills have remained at €570-580/mt ex-works for November and December delivery, while the tradable price level has remained at €540-550/mt ex-works, with no sizable deals reported this week.
According to sources, market insiders expect local mills to raise their offers in the coming weeks, taking advantage of tighter import conditions under the proposed regulations. “Demand will be same, but local prices will go up, so most market insiders predict fewer sales and less consumption,” a trader in Spain told SteelOrbis. “Prices are likely move up to €600/mt ex-works in Italy,” another source said.
Notably, as SteelOrbis reported earlier this week, the EC’s new plan includes a cut of around 47 percent in tariff-free import quotas and a 50 percent duty on volumes exceeding the new limits. It also introduces a “melt and pour” rule to verify the real origin of imported steel, making it harder for material to be relabelled or transhipped through third countries. The proposal still needs approval from the European Parliament and Council and is expected to take effect in mid-2026, when the existing safeguards expire.
The market reaction has been mixed. Some sources said the move shows that the Commission is trying to protect the EU steel industry and that prices could rise later. Others, however, called the measures unfair, saying they favour steelmakers while hurting importers and manufacturers who rely on cheaper foreign material.
“No one is really in the import market right now because of the safeguard review,” a market insider told SteelOrbis, adding, “The last import offers we heard were from Turkey at around €510–520/mt CFR, and from Indonesia at similar levels, but no orders were placed.”
Indicative offers for import HRC have been reported in the range of €500-530/mt CFR, depending on the origin.
“Countries like Spain and Italy will be affected the most by the new safeguard regulations as they need imports to stay competitive. If quotas are cut in half, it’s going to be a disaster especially for small businesses,” another source said.
According to sources, if the proposed rules are confirmed, with quotas reduced and out-of-quota duties set at 50 percent, European mills could again try to raise domestic HRC prices for first quarter deliveries.
