EU HRC prices: when there is no market, there is no bottom

Domestic prices for European hot-rolled coil fell Sept. 24 amid declining demand and muted activity, even as mills kept furnaces running in order to claim carbon credit allowances for next year.

“We are on the limit,” an Austria-based mill source said. “Enquiries are very low in the market, and I expect prices to bottom out soon.”

“Prices became weaker,” a Germany-based service center source said.

The buying activity has been very limited in the market and mills are willing to settle at lower prices, sources said. Opinion remained mixed on the extent of a further fall in prices, with some sources saying there could be a significant decrease in prices unless mills cut production.

“I think we are reaching the bottom but [it] depends on how desperate mills are to sell,” the source said. “When there is no market, there is no bottom.”

Some sources also said that at the beginning of a quarter, service centers sell a lot of newly cleared material at lower prices in order to make room for storage. The safeguard quotas for the October-December quarter will open on Oct. 1, and that is expected to be immediately filled up, sources said.

“At the start of every quarter, service centers sell a lot of material that was already lying at ports at lower prices in order to clear storage space,” an Italy-based service center source said.

Platts assessed Northwest European HRC at Eur540/mt ex-works Ruhr on Sept. 24, down Eur15/mt on the day. Bids were reported at Eur520/mt ex-works Ruhr and tradable values were reported at Eur530-550/mt ex-works Ruhr.

Meanwhile, Platts assessed domestic HRC in Southern Europe at Eur540/mt EXW Italy, down Eur10/mt on the day. Tradable values were reported at Eur535-545/mt EXW Italy.

The interest in imported HRC remains muted because domestic prices are comparable to import offers now, sources said.

“Domestic prices [are] comparable with imports, so it does not make sense to buy from imports,” the Germany-based service center source said.

Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe stable on the day at Eur525/mt CIF Antwerp, down Eur15/mt on the day.

Meanwhile, Platts assessed imported HRC in Southern Europe at Eur525/mt CIF Italy, down Eur10/mt on the day.

Devbrat Saha

spglobal.com