The latest EUROMETAL Market Sentiment Survey for October 2025 shows a mixed picture for Europe’s steel distribution sector. While current activity appears to have stabilised, forward-looking indicators suggest that confidence in a recovery remains fragile.
After September’s tentative signs of improvement, October’s results show a sector still cautious, with no strong upward momentum and a wait-and-see approach dominating behaviour.
Current activity remains stable
The assessment of current activity remained stable in October, holding at similar levels to September. While still modestly negative and below the neutral line, this marks the second consecutive month without further deterioration — a potential sign that the market may have found its floor after the sharp summer downturn.
Near-term outlook softens again
Expectations for activity in the next quarter declined slightly in October, reversing part of the cautious optimism seen in September. While not a dramatic shift, the trend reflects ongoing uncertainty and weak demand fundamentals heading into Q4.
Inventory strategies unchanged
The stock volume outlook remains consistent with previous months. Distributors are largely maintaining defensive inventory strategies, with most respondents expecting stock levels to remain stable in the near term. This cautious approach signals continued risk aversion across the sector.
Price expectations continue upward trend
October marks the third consecutive month of rising price expectations among European steel distributors. Following the dip in Q2, sentiment has steadily improved, and October shows the strongest positive outlook since early spring.
While price sentiment is not yet decisively bullish, the trend indicates that more respondents are beginning to expect moderate price increases in the coming months. This shift may reflect signs of tightening supply, stabilised demand, or anticipation of restocking cycles in Q4.
Key Takeaway
While there are early signs of improvement in price sentiment, the October 2025 data continue to reflect a market constrained by weak demand and low visibility. Current activity has stabilised, and inventories remain steady — both indicators of a sector in a holding pattern.
However, the continuation of upward price expectations is notable and could signal the beginning of a more positive trend — if demand fundamentals start to improve. Until then, caution remains the dominant mood across Europe’s steel distribution sector.
This analysis is based on the EUROMETAL Market Sentiment Survey, reflecting the views of 214 industry participants for October 2025.
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