The latest EUROMETAL Market Sentiment Survey highlights a cautious and somewhat pessimistic outlook for the steel and metals distribution sector as we move into the final quarter of 2024.
Based on 241 respondents for September 2024, the survey gives insights into current activity levels, future expectations, stock positions, and price development. Below is a summary of the findings:
Current Activity Assessment
- September 2024 saw a relatively stable perception of current activity, with responses consolidating below the neutral line. The responses are consistent with the previous months, with little significant deviation from the average.
Future Activity Forecast
- Expectations for activity in the fourth quarter of 2024 show weak activity. There is a clear downward trend compared to previous months.
Stock Position Forecast
- Stock positions are anticipated to remain steady through the next quarter. Data from September 2024 shows most respondents forecasting stock levels at or slightly below current levels, suggesting cautious inventory management in light of market uncertainty.
- The prior months also show a similar pattern, with no significant expectations of stock increases or aggressive restocking by distributors.
Price Development Expectations
- Price expectations for the fourth quarter are leaning towards slight declines. There is a growing belief that prices will decline further, as evidenced by the most significant responses positioned below the neutral axis.
- The previous 2 months have shown a relatively cautious stance, with price expectations more neutral or slightly negative.
The current activity remains stable but consistently below the neutral line, mirroring the trends observed in the past few months. Looking ahead, the future activity forecast for Q4 shows a clear downward trajectory, with weak activity expected. Distributors appear to be bracing for softer market conditions in the near term.
In terms of stock positions, respondents anticipate little change, with stock levels forecasted to remain steady or slightly reduced. This reflects a pragmatic approach to inventory management amid ongoing market uncertainty.
Meanwhile, price development expectations suggest a further decline in the coming quarter. The survey shows a growing consensus that prices will continue to soften, reinforcing the cautious sentiment expressed in recent months.
Overall, the industry appears to be preparing for a challenging end to 2024, with subdued activity levels, stable stock positions, and potential price declines on the horizon.
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