The latest EUROMETAL Market Sentiment Survey for September 2025 reveals a tentative stabilisation in market sentiment across Europe’s steel distribution sector. While the mood remains cautious and far from optimistic, the sharp declines seen in July appear to have bottomed out — with most indicators either flatlining or showing slight improvement.
This month’s data reflects a sector that is still under pressure, but possibly adjusting to the challenging environment by adopting a more measured stance. Price expectations, in particular, show a modest recovery — although still not enough to suggest a strong rebound.
Assessment of current activity
After July’s sharp downturn, sentiment regarding current activity has returned to levels seen in early summer. While still modestly negative, September shows a slight upward correction, hinting that the sector may be adjusting to the weak demand environment or seeing signs of stabilisation. The improvement, however, is marginal and should not be overstated — activity remains below the neutral line.
Outlook for future activity
The forecast for the coming quarter has also nudged upward in September, reversing part of the pessimism recorded in July. The trend suggests that expectations are no longer worsening, and some respondents may be cautiously optimistic about Q4. Nevertheless, sentiment remains fragile, and the overall mood continues to reflect low confidence in near-term recovery.
Stock position outlook
The stock volume outlook remains consistent with previous months: largely unchanged. The central positioning of responses and minimal variation across the past five months indicate continued risk aversion. Distributors are maintaining defensive inventory strategies, avoiding overstocking in an uncertain demand environment.
Price expectations
In contrast to other indicators, price sentiment shows the clearest sign of improvement. September marks the second consecutive month of recovery from the sharp dip seen in May and June. While still hovering around neutral, the trendline points upward — suggesting that expectations of stabilising or even slightly rising prices are beginning to take hold. This may reflect better supply-demand balance or seasonal effects.
While the market environment remains difficult, the September 2025 EUROMETAL Sentiment Survey suggests that the worst may be behind us — at least for now. Caution still dominates distributor behaviour, but the absence of further deterioration is notable. If these stabilising signals continue into Q4, the European steel distribution sector could enter 2026 in a more resilient position.
This analysis is based on the EUROMETAL Market Sentiment Survey, reflecting the views of 217 industry participants for September 2025.
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