Eurofer said apparent steel consumption would grow by 3% in 2026, revising down its previous forecast of 3.1% growth and leaving it well below pre-pandemic levels. That growth, however, depends on the performance of the industrial sector and the easing of geopolitical tensions.
Eurofer also confirmed its earlier projection for 2025 of a 0.2% drop in apparent steel consumption to 128 million tonnes, with a 0.5% decline in consumption by steel-using sectors, revised from a previously forecast decline of 0.7%.
The downward trajectory in steel consumption follows previous drops observed in the market, with apparent steel consumption falling by 1.8% year on year in the second quarter of 2025, according to Eurofer.
Flat steel prices experienced some growth in the third quarter of 2025 in response to the EU’s impending Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the introduction of new steel safeguards, which are expected to reduce import volumes when they come into effect in 2026.
A lack of end-user demand, however, paired with cheap overseas imports, has kept growth limited.
“European steelmakers cannot yet see the end of the tunnel,” Eurofer director general Axel Eggert said.
According to Eggert, new trade measures must be implemented “as a matter of urgency” to prevent further “stockpiling of cheap imports,” which, he added, would “nullify the effectiveness of the measures for the entire year.”
Fastmarkets’ steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe averaged €610.48 ($708.84) per tonne in November, a 3.58% increase from an average of €589.40 per tonne in October.
End-user outlook
Automotive
The output of the EU automotive industry is expected to drop by 3.8% in 2025, following the decline of 9.7% seen in 2024, according to Eurofer data. Meanwhile, a modest growth of 1.4% is expected for 2026.
Eurofer said the auto industry remains highly exposed to trade disruptions and is set to suffer from growing uncertainty, especially following the implementation of new trade tariffs by the US.
Construction
The European construction sector also remains under pressure despite some limited growth in steel consumption. According to Eurofer figures, output in the sector has grown by a modest 0.1% in 2025 and is expected to grow significantly in 2026 by approximately 2.2%.
But Eurofer said construction output in the EU continues to be affected by growing costs for construction materials, lack of labor and worsening economic conditions across the region, despite support from public initiatives like the NextGenerationEU package.
Fastmarkets’ price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar) domestic, delivered Northern Europe averaged €591.25-626.25 per tonne in November, a 0.04% increase from an average of €597-620 per tonne in October.
