European coil market activity slowed in the week to 7 November as steelmakers are largely booked for the rest of the year, and are now signalling further price increases for 2026 offers.
Northwest European hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices did inch a little higher on week despite thin liquidity, with smaller volume deals reported directly to McCloskey at levels between EUR620-630/t ex-works, and price indications from sources generally clustering toward in the middle of EUR600-640/t ex-works.
Offers for January delivery are still currently available at prices of around EUR630-650/t ex-works, with only a few offers reported as low as EUR600/t ex-works – though distributors expect upward revisions from steelmakers in the near-term, with signals pointing toward EUR700/t delivered as reported by multiple stockholders.
“Trading activity is slower, and recent positivity is fading as a result,” said a German distributor. “Mills are indicating EUR700/t delivered for the next round of price increases.”
The tractability of further increases is still uncertain among the trade, as distributors are generally running high stock levels and are working through inventories at a slower pace due to depressed EU consumption. That said, the distribution segment considers the latest round of price increases as tied to regulatory developments rather than demand fundamentals, so expected that further policy changes could drive prices further given the uncertain market environment.
“There’s been no real demand improvement – the price recovery is being driven by regulatory changes,” said a trader.
Northwestern ports are also “full” of material imported to beat the new year deadline for CBAM-free clearance, as described by a German distributor, offered at effective prices of EUR600/t delivered (around EUR580/t base) into the Northwest European market. Import prices for delivery in the second quarter – increasingly offered by traders on a DDP basis in absorbing CBAM’s variable and uncertain cost pressures – were reported at the same EUR580/t DDP.
Prices for Italian HRC experienced similarly muted dynamics on week, finding some liquidity at levels of approximately EUR580/t ex-works given buyer bids at EUR580-590/t delivered. A producer source did expect that mill price discipline could falter before year’s end however, as sellers seek to offload excess December volumes.
“There’s more talk than activity in the market this week,” said the source. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see mills give discounts to get rid of December rolling material.”
Italian buyers were said to be referencing all-in import offers ex-Turkey at EUR560/t DDP, but with Turkish origin offers available at EUR490-500/t CFR, mill sources expected actual DDP pricing to lie closer to EUR580/t.
HRC from Indonesia was reported from multiple sources at the EUR560-570/t DDP price level, while imports ex-Turkey, Algeria, and the Far East were reported at around EUR610/t DDP.
One trader described the aggressiveness of Indonesian-origin HRC as threatening to “ruin the market for everyone,” being offered under the market consistently due to their WTO developing-country status exemption from the EU’s existing safeguard measures.
While limited to market speculation at present, McCloskey has discussed the feasibility of the European Commission initiating a developing country review for the safeguards in late-December, for January effect, as Indonesian HRC volumes now well-exceed the 3% annual share threshold required to neutralise its exemption.
At least one large trading outfit told McCloskey it had ceased sourcing HRC from Indonesia as far back as the Blechexpo trade fair in mid-to-late October, but McCloskey knows of several other import purchases due for arrival in late December, which would potentially face duties if delayed into January and the Commission does review existing protections.
Green Steel
While substantive green steel activity remains thin in Europe in the emerging low-carbon market due to rapid developments affecting traditional steel – seeing workable green HRC premia move sideways at EUR70-80/t – increased regulatory attention from events such as Germany’s Steel Summit further exemplified the political will to redefine steel procurement needs toward low-carbon, domestic offerings.
Speaking at the event, President of the German Steel Federation (Wirtschaftsvereinigung Stahl) Hans-Jürgen Kerkhoff said that the desire to support green steel demand development via public procurement was “very clear,” both supported “at the state level, and also through incentive systems in the private sector.”
As indicated by Commission communications, lead market support from proposals such as the Industrial Accelerator Act (quietly renamed from the Industrial Decarbonisation Accelerator Act), and adjacent policy initiatives are expected in the near-term.
| Weekly European steel coil | |||||
| EUR/t | Term | 07-Nov-25 | Change | ||
| Weekly Northwest Europe steel coil | |||||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 615.00 | 5.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works CRC | EX-WORKS | 695.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HDG | EX-WORKS | 710.00 | -10.00 | ||
| Weekly South Europe steel coil | |||||
| Italy ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 580.00 | -5.00 | ||
| South Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 560.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Source: McCloskey by OPIS. | © 2025 Dow Jones Energy Limited. | ||||
| Weekly green steel | |||
| EUR/t | Term | 07-Nov-25 | Change |
| Green Northwest Europe HRC premium (scopes 1-3 CO2 under 0.8t) | 75.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-3) | EX-WORKS | 690.00 | 5.00 |
| Green HRC premium (scopes 1-2 CO2 under 0.5t) | 75.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-2) | EX-WORKS | 690.00 | 5.00 |
| Green HRC reduced carbon price (scopes 1-3) | 44.48 | -1.53 | |
Maria Tanatar Associate Director, Steel and Green Steel
Benjamin Steven Journalist, Steel
