European coil and green steel round-up: Northwest European HRC prices rise despite trading slowdown
European coil market activity slowed in the week to 7 November as steelmakers are largely booked for the rest of the year, and are now signalling further price increases for 2026 offers.
Northwest European hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices did inch a little higher on week despite thin liquidity, with smaller volume deals reported directly to McCloskey at levels between EUR620-630/t ex-works, and price indications from sources generally clustering toward in the middle of EUR600-640/t ex-works.
Offers for January delivery are still currently available at prices of around EUR630-650/t ex-works, with only a few offers reported as low as EUR600/t ex-works – though distributors expect upward revisions from steelmakers in the near-term, with signals pointing toward EUR700/t delivered as reported by multiple stockholders.
“Trading activity is slower, and recent positivity is fading as a result,” said a German distributor. “Mills are indicating EUR700/t delivered for the next round of price increases.”
The tractability of further increases is still uncertain among the trade, as distributors are generally running high stock levels and are working through inventories at a slower pace due to depressed EU consumption. That said, the distribution segment considers the latest round of price increases as tied to regulatory developments rather than demand fundamentals, so expected that further policy changes could drive prices further given the uncertain market environment.
“There’s been no real demand improvement – the price recovery is being driven by regulatory changes,” said a trader.
Northwestern ports are also “full” of material imported to beat the new year deadline for CBAM-free clearance, as described by a German distributor, offered at effective prices of EUR600/t delivered (around EUR580/t base) into the Northwest European market. Import prices for delivery in the second quarter – increasingly offered by traders on a DDP basis in absorbing CBAM’s variable and uncertain cost pressures – were reported at the same EUR580/t DDP.
Prices for Italian HRC experienced similarly muted dynamics on week, finding some liquidity at levels of approximately EUR580/t ex-works given buyer bids at EUR580-590/t delivered. A producer source did expect that mill price discipline could falter before year’s end however, as sellers seek to offload excess December volumes.
“There’s more talk than activity in the market this week,” said the source. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see mills give discounts to get rid of December rolling material.”
Italian buyers were said to be referencing all-in import offers ex-Turkey at EUR560/t DDP, but with Turkish origin offers available at EUR490-500/t CFR, mill sources expected actual DDP pricing to lie closer to EUR580/t.
HRC from Indonesia was reported from multiple sources at the EUR560-570/t DDP price level, while imports ex-Turkey, Algeria, and the Far East were reported at around EUR610/t DDP.
One trader described the aggressiveness of Indonesian-origin HRC as threatening to “ruin the market for everyone,” being offered under the market consistently due to their WTO developing-country status exemption from the EU’s existing safeguard measures.
While limited to market speculation at present, McCloskey has discussed the feasibility of the European Commission initiating a developing country review for the safeguards in late-December, for January effect, as Indonesian HRC volumes now well-exceed the 3% annual share threshold required to neutralise its exemption.
At least one large trading outfit told McCloskey it had ceased sourcing HRC from Indonesia as far back as the Blechexpo trade fair in mid-to-late October, but McCloskey knows of several other import purchases due for arrival in late December, which would potentially face duties if delayed into January and the Commission does review existing protections.
Green Steel
While substantive green steel activity remains thin in Europe in the emerging low-carbon market due to rapid developments affecting traditional steel – seeing workable green HRC premia move sideways at EUR70-80/t – increased regulatory attention from events such as Germany’s Steel Summit further exemplified the political will to redefine steel procurement needs toward low-carbon, domestic offerings.
Speaking at the event, President of the German Steel Federation (Wirtschaftsvereinigung Stahl) Hans-Jürgen Kerkhoff said that the desire to support green steel demand development via public procurement was “very clear,” both supported “at the state level, and also through incentive systems in the private sector.”
As indicated by Commission communications, lead market support from proposals such as the Industrial Accelerator Act (quietly renamed from the Industrial Decarbonisation Accelerator Act), and adjacent policy initiatives are expected in the near-term.
| Weekly European steel coil | |||||
| EUR/t | Term | 07-Nov-25 | Change | ||
| Weekly Northwest Europe steel coil | |||||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 615.00 | 5.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works CRC | EX-WORKS | 695.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Northwest Europe ex-works HDG | EX-WORKS | 710.00 | -10.00 | ||
| Weekly South Europe steel coil | |||||
| Italy ex-works HRC | EX-WORKS | 580.00 | -5.00 | ||
| South Europe CIF HRC | CIF | 560.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Source: McCloskey by OPIS. | © 2025 Dow Jones Energy Limited. | ||||
| Weekly green steel | |||
| EUR/t | Term | 07-Nov-25 | Change |
| Green Northwest Europe HRC premium (scopes 1-3 CO2 under 0.8t) | 75.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-3) | EX-WORKS | 690.00 | 5.00 |
| Green HRC premium (scopes 1-2 CO2 under 0.5t) | 75.00 | 0.00 | |
| Green Northwest Europe ex-works HRC (scopes 1-2) | EX-WORKS | 690.00 | 5.00 |
| Green HRC reduced carbon price (scopes 1-3) | 44.48 | -1.53 | |
Maria Tanatar Associate Director, Steel and Green Steel
Benjamin Steven Journalist, Steel
Blechexpo: EU coil players see stronger CRC, HDG
As the European coil market keeps hoping for stronger prices and that mills’ new offers will gain ground despite a weak economic environment, some say that processed coil could strengthen relatively faster than substrate.
A Dutch buyer of cold-rolled and hot-dip galvanized coil sees the price spread between CRC/HDG and hot rolled coil widening somewhat. “In normal times we assume a premium of €80/tonne [$93] for CRC over HRC, and for galv another €20 more. At the moment, it is trending more towards +€100 and +€120,” he told Kallanish on the sidelines of this week’s Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart.
Lower mill capacity for CRC and HDG compared with HRC means prices for downstream coil grow faster, he argues. A German buyer concurred and also pointed to the EU’s antidumping case on CRC. This will put a brake on orders from typical supplier countries for CRC, like Turkey and India, he added.
In fact, CRC could temporarily eclipse the price of galv due to the shortage of imports. He noted that the main spot market supplier of CRC in Europe is ArcelorMittal, while many other mills feed their CRC directly to carmakers.
The Dutch buyer does not necessarily agree about CRC eclipsing galv, but conceded that both could be equal in price going forward. He also highlighted the typical role of CRC in northwestern Europe, in that it is the base material for galvanizing for customers in the automotive industry, among others.
European mills’ HRC offers for new contracts start with a six, reaching up to €650/tonne ($754) delivered in the first quarter of 2026. Offers for CRC and HDG would then be clearly at above €700/t.
Christian Koehl Germany
Blechexpo: European coil buyers question increases, Asian purchases continue
Market uncertainty and sharp mill price increases continue to weigh on the European coil market. Buyers across spot, annual, and index contracts are resisting the proposed hikes and postponing purchasing decisions.
At the Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart this week, attended by Kallanish, producers presented higher price levels; however, no new commitments were finalised. According to market sources, steelmakers are seeking increases of around €100/tonne ($117/t) for new automotive contracts or proposing revised pricing structures with higher extras on indexed contracts.
While annual and indexed customers appear open to moderate increases, they are unwilling to meet the full extent of the requested increases. Producers meanwhile remain firm and unwilling to compromise.
Some producers are currently refraining from offering HRC prices, while others are quoting between €620-630/t base delivered for December delivery and €640-650/t for January.
The overall sentiment at Blechexpo was marked by uncertainty regarding the outlook for the European steel value chain. Participants pointed to Germany’s weak economic growth and the lack of recovery in downstream consumption as key concerns. Steel processors at the event confirmed that price increases for coil derivatives remain insignificant. Many consider producers’ ambitions to implement substantial hikes as unrealistic and unsupported by the supply/demand balance.
Coil buyers at the fair expected consumption to remain subdued through the first half of 2026. With the automotive and white goods sectors still struggling and several facilities across Europe idled or closing, steel processors see little potential for a rebound in steel demand in Q4 and next year.
One steel processor pointed out that the loss of competitiveness of downstream sectors will become palpable in the coming months. European coil prices will rise further, due to protectionist measures. However, Turkish buyers will continue to secure competitively priced coil from Asian suppliers, enabling them to produce lower-cost downstream products. This dynamic is expected to significantly challenge European steel processors and manufacturers, who risk losing global market share and export competitiveness.
Major buyers meanwhile continue sourcing material from Asia, which remains competitive against European asking prices even after including all import-related costs and duties. Lower Asian market values remain the key reference, with Chinese HRC prices being the global benchmark. When accounting for approximately €60/t in CBAM costs, other duties, and logistics, HRC prices from China may reach around €600-610/t cfr Europe, undermining the upward price momentum in the regional market, sources believe.
One steel processor noted that 2025 has been a challenging year, with the company managing to repay investments but reporting disappointing financial results. Another coil buyer said that, given current Chinese price levels, he expects European HRC prices to reach around €630/t base delivered by mid to late Q1 2026. A further market participant added that the trajectory of European prices will largely depend on the implementation schedule of the new safeguard measure.
Natalia Capra France
Sluggish demand drags on European HRC prices; buyers keep to sidelines
In Northern Europe, HRC with July lead times was heard offered at €620-650 ($709-743) per tonne ex-works or delivered from integrated mills.
A re-roller in the region was heard offering coil at €600 per tonne ex-works.
Italy-origin coil was offered to Germany at €630 per tonne delivered, with bids for such material reported at €610 per tonne delivered.
Buyers’ estimations of tradable prices were heard at €590-620 per tonne ex-works on Friday.
Earlier this week, industry sources reported that one major supplier in the region concluded a transaction at approximately €600 per tonne delivered Germany, equating to around €585-590 per tonne ex-works. But another source indicated that the deal was finalized at €595 per tonne delivered.
Throughout the first week of June, trading was muted.
Sluggish end-user demand, lack of buyer confidence and competitive import offers put pressure on domestic prices in Europe, while the approaching holiday season left little hope for a short-term price rebound, sources said.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Northern Europe was €606.38 per tonne on Friday, down by €1.12 per tonne from €607.50 per tonne on Thursday June 5.
The index slipped by €21.12 per tonne since Monday June 2.
The Northern European index was also down by €22.37 per tonne week on week and by €48.60 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, in Central Europe, buyers estimated the market at €600-630 per tonne ex-works during the assessment week.
Offers from integrated mills were heard at 630-640 per tonne ex-works.
One mill in the region was heard to have limited spot availability until August after contracting major volumes to Germany.
A deal was also heard at €600 per tonne ex-works in the region, but it was not widely confirmed by industry sources.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil domestic, exw Central Europe was €600-630 per tonne on June 4, down from €630-640 per tonne in the previous week.
Meanwhile, in Italy, Fastmarkets’ daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €590 per tonne on Friday, stable day on day.
The Italian index was down by €8.75 per tonne week on week and by €25 per tonne month on month.
The Italian market has also been quiet.
Offers from domestic suppliers were in the range of €590-610 per tonne delivered (€580-600 per tonne ex-works). An integrated supplier was offering at the higher end of the range.
Buyers estimated tradable prices at €580-590 per tonne ex-works, hinting at further downward potential due to limited demand.
Some re-rollers were still offering June lead times, while integrated mills offered July delivery, underscoring the difficulty that suppliers are facing in filling order books.
Imports have added further downward pressure.
Indonesian HRC was heard offered at €490-500 per tonne CFR to Italy by midweek, down from €520 per tonne CFR at the end of May.
Indian material was offered around €535-540 per tonne CFR, while Turkish coil was available at €530-545 per tonne CFR duty paid.
Despite attractive prices, buyers showed limited interest in imported material, with some reportedly testing the quality of recent arrivals before committing to new bookings.
Safeguards-related risks were also cooling buying interest for overseas coil, Fastmarkets heard.
Market participants expressed broader concerns about the structural demand weakness in Europe, citing poor fundamentals in downstream sectors, such as automotive and construction. The looming introduction of US tariffs and the upcoming implementation of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) also added to the prevailing uncertainty.
“There’s no light at the end of the tunnel,” one German buyer said.
With a seasonal summer slowdown approaching and no significant demand recovery in sight, most market participants expect the downtrend to persist into the coming weeks, keeping both domestic and import prices under sustained pressure.
Northwestern Europe coil market stays slow
Coil buyers in northwestern Europe confirm that ArcelorMittal this month launched another attempt to increase coil prices, but they do not expect that they will cause a leap forward on the market.
Essentially, steelmakers are trying to bring the price for hot-rolled coil over the mark of €600/t ($628) ex-works. They do achieve it at times, Kallanish hears, but prices below that for transactions still occur in Germany and Benelux. Scandinavian prices tend to be clearly above that level.
ArcelorMittal now asks for €20-30/t more for delivery in the second quarter, nominally aiming towards €650/t. Similar moves are heard from other mills, with one German mill asking for even €50/t more, according to a trader who says he has not replied with a bid on that yet.
One Swiss-based trader says he does not see much potential for new prices to pass through, citing high stocks at service centres and some capacities reopening in Italy and eastern Europe.
“Our customers are very reserved with buying, which is frustrating for the mills as they cannot make long-term plans,” a French-based trader concurs.
A German buyer finds that prices are definitely strengthening, largely because of potential EU measures against imports. But still, “demand is not growing much, so price increases will not be dramatic,” he comments. “It remains to be seen how the mood on the market is developing, especially in Germany after the elections, and if measures against imports are successful. Then we might be able to tell if there is headroom for more price hikes – or if we fall back into a grey stagnation.”
Christian Koehl Germany
ArcelorMittal increases European coil prices
ArcelorMittal is set to raise coil prices by €30/tonne ($20.8-31.2) in Europe, effective for deliveries in April, according to market sources.
Lead times at the steelmaker’s facilities in Europe have now been extended to April, as order books for the first quarter are reported to be full. Current asking prices for hot rolled coil in the new allocations are positioned at €660/t base delivered. Sources indicate that prices for hot-dipped galvanised coil are rising to €780/t base delivered.
Import restrictions in the EU are driving customers to source material domestically within Europe. Demand in some European countries is said to be improving, according to some sources, Kallanish hears.
Amid the ongoing review of EU steel safeguard measures, Eurofer has provided recommendations to the European Commission on making the measures more restrictive. The association is proposing reducing tariff-rate quota volumes to reflect declining EU steel demand and raising the safeguard duty to 32-41%. It also wants to cap quotas for other product categories at 15%, as was done last year for HRC and wire rod.
Natalia Capra France
Outstanding European coil contracts could see higher prices
Northwestern European coil buyers that are still in the process of bargaining for long-term supply contracts with steelmakers might end up with higher prices than agreed-to so far, with the major car brands, for instance.
According to one mill manager, upcoming agreements could see somewhat higher prices than those struck previously, as spot market prices have proceeded climbing slightly since December. The difference will not be massive, as the upward trend proceeds slowly. Mills are still struggling to obtain close to €600/tonne ($630) ex-works for hot-rolled coil, with €620/t called as the new target by at least one mill.
Whilst the spot price is certainly a factor in the negotiations, the main indicator is the prices resulting from the previous year’s talks, the same manager emphasises. Long-term supply relationships involve services and reliability and therefore work differently than the spot market, which is very much influenced by the pricing of imports. As a rule of thumb, contract prices can be €100/t higher than spot prices.
Compared with the contracts signed one year ago, prices accepted so far in January are €60-80/t lower, Kallanish hears from sources at mills, automotive suppliers and service centres. One experienced independent observer expressed doubts though. He says the reductions were greater, closer to the €100/t mark.
“The people I talked to signed at a year-on-year reduction of between €85 and €95,” he says, adding he has not heard of deals at minus-€70 or less.
Other than the parties involved, that source offers a concrete figure for the outcomes, which he says were at €650/t for HRC. And, he says mills aim to reach closer to the €700/t mark in annual contracts that are still outstanding.
Christian Koehl Germany
Final long-term EU coil contracts eye settlement
The negotiations for annual supply relationships between European coil mills and large consumers, mostly in the automotive sector, have now largely been settled, with few still outstanding.
Most agreements were struck shortly after the winter break. By mid-December, one mill source said that agreements would not be completed before January, at least not with the big consumers. Smaller customers, such as service centres, had already spoken of finalised deals in early December.
Meanwhile, the mill source informs Kallanish that some annual and half-year agreements have been settled. “For the remaining contracts, the negotiations are in the final stage where the window between customers’ and mills’ expectations has narrowed down to around €10-20/t [$11-22],” he notes.
This is a noteworthy approximation, given that customers had initially asked mills to reduce their prices by over €100/t in comparison to the prices secured one year earlier.
Amid an already pitiful spot price environment, with sales volumes significantly restricted for several months now, big year-on-year annual contract price declines would have meant another blow to the profitability of mills. In December, many sources already reported increasing willingness by customers to make do with more modest reductions, as it would make little sense to starve their established suppliers.
According to the mill source, deals were now struck at a y-o-y reduction of €60-70/t, a figure confirmed from the side of automotive suppliers. One buyer tells of a reduction range struck with tier suppliers as well as with OEMs of €50-70, “with slightly more [deals] towards the higher end.”
He notes that deals with most mills have been completed, except for one group, “which is still playing hard-to-get, but they will be inclined to go in that direction, too”.
European HRC Market faces uncertainty amid weak demand, inventory overhang
Domestic European hot-rolled coil prices remained largely stable Jan. 8 as participants grappled with subdued demand and elevated inventory levels. The market’s cautious sentiment is reflected in the mixed pricing signals and the ongoing hesitancy among buyers.
A trader source observed a lack of engagement in the HRC market, where offers around Eur630/mt ex-works Ruhr have been reported, though these figures remained largely unworkable across the broader market.
“The market is constrained by weak demand and substantial inventories, which are dampening transactional activity,” an Austrian source said.
A Germany-based distributor source expressed skepticism regarding the current HRC offer levels from domestic mills, suggesting that realistic, workable prices are closer to Eur540-550/mt, influenced by the persistent low demand.
Platts assessed North European HRC prices at Eur560/mt ex-works Ruhr Jan. 7, stable on the day. Similarly, Southern European domestic HRC prices held steady at Eur560/mt ex-works Italy.
Interest in imports remained weak, with the source noting that import offers are not generating significant interest, as buyers remain cautious about committing to new bookings.
Imported HRC prices in Northwest Europe increased Jan. 8 to Eur535/mt CIF Antwerp, while prices in Southern Europe remained stable on the day at Eur530/mt CIF Italy.
Discussing the market interest in carbon-accounted steel, participants continued to report a wider range of offer levels in the market, depending on carbon content. A range of offers for carbon-accounted HRC was heard on the day, with the most competitive at Eur60-70/mt, CO2e content below 0.8 mt, scopes 1-3, for mass-balanced material.
Higher offers were also heard in the market at Eur120/mt with CO2e content below 0.8 mt across scopes 1-3 and at Eur300/mt for CO2e content around 0 mt across scopes 1-2, but using mass-balancing approach, However, sources remained skeptical that these price levels were workable for the wider market, instead citing that due to both higher prices as a result of the lower carbon content, the material would only attract niche buyers or be required for special projects applications.
Platts assessed Northwest European hot-rolled coil carbon-accounted at Eur620/mt ex-works Ruhr Jan. 8, stable day on day.
European HRC prices flat in quiet market
Sources said the increase in trading activity was not due to improved demand or an economic upturn, but due to expectations of longer lead times at some suppliers.
“Some steelmakers will extend their winter break, which will lead to longer lead times [for HRC],” a buyer in the Benelux region of Northern Europe told Fastmarkets.
Offers for HRC with lead times in the first quarter 2025 were heard at €570-600 ($598-630) per tonne ex-works in Northern Europe on Friday, but sources said there was “no information about contracts starting with a ‘6’ so far.”
One supplier in the Benelux region reported hearing of deals for HRC being done at €570-580 per tonne ex-works.
A supplier in Germany, meanwhile, said deals had been done at €560-570 per tonne ex-works.
Buyer estimates of the tradable level in Northern Europe were heard at €550-580 per tonne ex-works on Friday.
“The market mood is rather depressed, especially in Germany, where many companies are announcing staff lay-offs,” a source in Germany said.
And there was said to be fierce downstream competition between steel service centers (SSCs) because of high inventories and cashflow needs.
“There is a battle for orders between SSCs,” a third buyer said.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, at €562.50 per tonne on December 13, down by €0.63 per tonne from €563.13 per tonne on December 12.
The index was down by €1.67 per tonne week on week but up by €4.17 per tonne month on month.
No major progress was reported regarding the long-term contracts negotiations between steel mills and automakers
Buyers were hoping to achieve a discount for first-half and full-year 2025 contracts, with several original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) reporting a targeted decline of €100-150 per tonne.
Mills were hoping for a “double digit” discount, Fastmarkets understands.
“Mills have to keep in mind that the price gap between spot and contract prices is too wide right now,” a fourth buyer told Fastmarkets.
Contracts for the second half of 2024 were done at €730-750 per tonne, sources said.
“We are in the middle of negotiations with the OEMs. [Contract] prices for HRC will be lower [than] 2024, but not by as much as initially expected,” a mill source said.
“Negotiations [with the automotive sector] are very difficult and might extend into January,” a mill source said.
In Southern Europe, meanwhile, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, at €561.50 per tonne on Friday, down by €0.38 per tonne from €561.88 per tonne on the previous day.
The Italian index was up by €1.08 per tonne week on week and up by €7.50 per tonne month on month.
One local steelmaker in Italy was aiming for €600-640 per tonne delivered (€590-630 per tonne ex-works) for February-March delivery coil, sources said,
depending on the tonnage and client.
One integrated mill in Italy raised its offer prices for first-quarter delivery coil to €570 per tonne ex-works, compared with €550 per tonne ex-works at the start of December,
Buyers, meanwhile estimated the tradable base price for HRC at €570-580 per tonne delivered (€560-570 per tonne ex-works).
The market for imported coil in Europe remained quiet in the week to Friday due persistent trade restrictions, long lead times and uncompetitive prices compared with European suppliers.
“We expect reliance on European material will only increase in the upcoming months,” a buyer in Italy said.
Turkish suppliers were offering HRC at €550 per tonne CFR, duty paid, for tonnages of 10,000 tonnes or more, sources said.
And offers of HRC for February shipment from Southeast Asia to Italy came in at €580-600 per tonne CFR in the seven days to Friday.