A reliable picture of coil price trends will not emerge before September, northwestern European players believe.
With many countries still on vacation, August has not brought any increase or decline to price levels, given the limited market activity.
At least one mill has stopped giving out offers at all, and apparently others have followed, buyers say. Buyers now expect that mills will return at month’s end with new prices.
A Benelux service centre manager tells of orders for hot-rolled coil at the beginning of the month reportedly booked at €720–735/tonne ($840-857/t) delivered. He notes that offers of up to €750/t delivered have emerged in the meantime but dismisses them as unaccepted.
Even the lower level of around €740/t delivered, the target defined by the market leader in July, is seen not workable by several buyers.
“You need to be brave to pay that,” a German buyer tells Kallanish. It would mean adding €20/t to his sales prices, which his customers would not accept. “The market is just too weak for that,” he adds.
Prices for cold-rolled and hot-dip galvanized coil do not deviate from the trend of HRC, with a premium of €100/t.
“Remarkably, the price of HDG is again nearly that of CRC,” a Dutch buyer for construction says, assessing both at €820-835/t delivered.
He expects mills to try an increase of €25-30/t but sees little chance that it will be accepted in the quiet market. In Germany, where roughly half of the population is still on school vacation, signals of movement are not expected before mid-September.
Given the lack of competition from imports, buyers do not expect prices to weaken, either but they warn mills of flexing their muscles too much.
“If mills set the mark too high, they might end up selling for less than they said, and that would be a bad signal for the market,” the German buyer says.
