European HRC prices stabilize after steel mills push for increases

European hot-rolled coil prices were broadly flat on Thursday October 10, with buyers questioning the sustainability of higher offers from domestic steel mills, given the chronic lack of demand, sources told Fastmarkets.

Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Northern Europe at €547.17 ($599.43) per tonne on Thursday, up by €1.17 per tonne from €546.00 per tonne the previous day.

The index was up by €4.67 per tonne week on week, but down by €32.66 per tonne month on month.

Offer prices for November-December delivery HRC from mills in the region varied between €560 per tonne and €590 per tonne ex-works, sources said.

“The offers [for HRC] we have seen [since October 7] are all up, but it’s too early to comment [on] whether the move will be successful or not. The downtrend has definitely stopped, though,” one buyer in the region told Fastmarkets.

“This week, China returned from the [National Day] holidays and we’ll have to wait for the reaction [there, and] the impact of the stimulus [measures proposed at] the beginning of October,” the buyer added.

Achievable values were estimated by most buyers at €540-550 per tonne ex-works.

For HRC with delivery in the fourth quarter of 2024, mills can be a bit more flexible and provide discounts for bigger lots, sources said.

But for HRC with lead times in the first quarter of 2025, suppliers were insisting on “a minimum of €560 per tonne ex-works,” Fastmarkets understands.

“What we need to get a sustainable [steel] price increase is better demand,” a second buyer said. “But haven’t seen any positive signals from that side.”

In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €540.00 per tonne on Thursday, down by just €0.33 per tonne from €540.33 per tonne on the previous day,

The Italian index was up by €5.00 per tonne week on week, but down by €37.50 per tonne month on month.

November-delivery HRC from Italian suppliers was on offer in the domestic market at €550-560 per tonne delivered, which nets back to €540-550 per tonne ex-works.

But buyers estimated the tradable value at no more than €530-540 per tonne ex-works.

In the secondary market, HR sheet was still trading at around €620-630 per tonne CPT, but steel service centers said they needed to increase their offers to  €670 per tonne CPT as a minimum to recover margins.

“The market is still slow and it is not clear whether the higher offers [for HRC] will be fully accepted by the buyers,” a trading source said.

Prices for imported HRC also increase in the week to Thursday.

Notably, Turkish HRC was  on offer to Italy at €580-590 per tonne CFR, including the EU anti-dumping duty, sources said.

And offers of HRC with November shipment from India were heard to Italy at €585 per tonne CFR, while material from Asian suppliers was on offer at €550-560 per tonne CFR.

None of these offers were considered workable by European buyers.

Green steel
Fastmarkets’ weekly assessment of the green steel domestic, flat-rolled, differential to HRC index, exw Northern Europe was €100-200 per tonne on Thursday, unchanged week on week.

Major European suppliers continued to offer steel with Scope 1, Scope 2 and upstream Scope 3 emissions below 0.8 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per tonne of steel at a premium of €200-350 per tonne.

Estimates of tradeable values for the same material in the spot market were reported at a premium of €50-150 per tonne during the assessment week.

And for long-term contracts, the premiums for steel with CO2 emissions below 800 kg of CO2 per tonne of steel ranged from €200 to €300 per tonne, according to sources.

A supplier source pointed out that for steel with CO2 emissions content below 500 kg per tonne of steel, “premiums below €200 per tonne would not be commercially viable.”

No new transactions for green steel were reported in the assessment week.

Published by: Julia Bolotova

fastmarkets.com