“[HRC] prices are deteriorating day by day because of low demand and high free capacity around the globe,” a buyer in Northern Europe said. “The automotive industry in Europe is in collapse, with very poor prospects for the near future.”
As a result, trading remained very poor across the European HRC market.
European producer sources claimed that they were already “in the red” – meaning that they were selling HRC at prices close to or even below the costs of production.
Transaction prices for HRC in Northern Europe were mainly reported at €540-550 ($602-613) per tonne ex-works, market sources said.
Official offers were rare, because suppliers preferred to work “case by case.”
One mill source reported offers at €570-580 per tonne ex-works, but buyer sources found that price no longer workable.
“[A price of] €540-550 [per tonne ex-works] is what we might accept now, unfortunately,” a supplier source in the region said.
“Steel mills have to learn the hard way: there is no chance to improve [HRC] prices because there is just no demand,” a German buyer said.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe, was €549.88 ($612.60) per tonne on September 25, down by €2.83 per tonne from €552.71 per tonne the previous day.
The index was down by €10.12 per tonne week on week and by €51.95 per tonne month on month.
Some market sources suggested that HRC prices might hit rock-bottom in October-November, and that, after closing their order books for 2024, European mills might try to increase prices for the first quarter of 2025.
No official announcements of such decisions have been made, however.
There were no signs of recovery in end-user demand, so market sources suggested that achieving any price increase would be difficult.
“The market is really very down, and there are no signs of improvement,” a buyer in the Benelux area said. “The Chinese National Bank has announced a number of actions to support that country’s economy and bring it back to a desired growth rate of 5%. Maybe it will help the global steel situation [if that is achieved] but it will take time.”
In Southern Europe, meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Italy, was €544.38 per tonne on Wednesday, down by €8.12 per tonne from €552.50 per tonne on Tuesday.
The Italian index was also down by €15.62 per tonne week on week and by €55.62 per tonne month on month.
On Wednesday, sources reported offers of HRC from a domestic mill at €560 per tonne delivered, with lead times of late October to early November. This would be equivalent to €550 per tonne ex-works.
Estimates of tradeable values from buyer sources were heard at €530-550 per tonne ex-works.
Market sources said that, for large tonnages of 1,000 tonnes or more, estimates were reported at €530 per tonne delivered (€520 per tonne ex-works).
But trading in Italy was muted and bookings were rare, and mainly for small tonnages, because buyers were holding back and expecting prices to fall further.
“Lack of demand and the disturbing situation in the automotive industry are key concerns,” a buyer in Italy said.
In the secondary market, 3-6mm hot-rolled sheet was offered and traded at €650-660 per tonne CPT.
Meanwhile, import HRC offers from Asia were heard at €525-535 per tonne CFR to Italy, for shipment in end-October or November.
Bids for such material were reported at €480-510 per tonne CFR, but no offers at that level were reported to be available in the market.
Trade safeguard measures and a new European anti-dumping investigation into HRC from Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan and Egypt were limiting the interest in imports, especially considering the small gap to domestic prices.
On September 24, the European Commission announced that it will start to register all imports of products falling under anti-dumping or anti-subsidy investigations, including continuing investigations where provisional determinations have not yet been made.
“The registration will be carried out by Member-State customs authorities,” a note on the Commission’s website said, “as directed by the European Commission via individual Implementing Regulations.”
Published by: Julia Bolotova
