Price increase demands from European steel producers for the first quarter of 2027 are gaining momentum, supported by supply constraints and reduced import competition. However, weak demand, particularly in Northern Europe, is making it difficult for producers to push through higher prices.
HRC offers for first-quarter 2027 deliveries have increased to EUR790–800/ton, while regional differences remain evident across the market. In Northern Europe, buyer resistance has led to slight price declines, whereas limited material availability in Italy has pushed recent transactions to EUR750–760/ton EXW. Despite producers’ higher price targets, the extent to which these levels can be achieved will depend on demand from end-users.
Meanwhile, high energy costs and decarbonisation investments remain major challenges affecting the competitiveness of the European steel industry. Recent industry discussions have highlighted that the transition to EAF and hydrogen-based production technologies requires not only investments in facilities but also access to affordable, low-emission energy. Differences in energy conditions across regions could also influence the future geographical distribution of steel production.
The EU’s quotas, import duties and CBAM measures are providing protection for domestic producers against import competition. Nevertheless, weak demand across Europe raises questions about the sustainability of price increases. Producers’ requests for increases of EUR100–150/ton in 2027 annual contracts are not expected to be fully accepted.
Overall, the European market continues to face a balance between supply-driven price support and weak demand. The extent to which producers’ price targets will be accepted in the coming period will depend on energy costs, import conditions and demand from end-users.
Romanian Market Faces Logistical and CBAM Pressures
Romania’s steel market is facing greater challenges than the wider EU market due to its dependence on imports, alongside weak demand and economic difficulties. The war in the Black Sea is disrupting maritime transportation, while freight costs for shipments to the Port of Constanța have risen significantly.
In addition to a weak economy, political uncertainty and financing difficulties, the fact that CBAM costs have not yet been fully reflected in prices poses further risks for 2027.Smaller importers are particularly unprepared, while delays in the verification of actual emissions are expected to increase costs.
Exporters are expected to announce higher prices, but these increases will only gain acceptance in the Romanian market if demand recovers. Under current conditions, short-term prospects for a recovery in Romania’s steel market remain weak.
