Steel demand in Germany will no longer see a recovery this year, contrary to forecasts in spring, according to national steel federation WV Stahl.
The federation had predicted in April a slight growth in demand this year, but has had to deviate considerably from that forecast. It now expects a year-on-year drop of 7%, followed by a 6% rebound in 2025. This compares to the 0.9% drop forecast for global demand in 2024.
“There is no sustained recovery in sight for 2025,” says WV Stahl director Martin Theuringer, who is also worldsteel’s economics committee chairman. “The further decline of the market volume to only 26 million tonnes is an absolute low point, which undercuts even the level of the financial crisis by 10%,” he laments in a note seen by Kallanish.
Virtually all the main steel using industries are stuck. Activity will not fully return to a healthy pace in 2025, but will see only a “technical counter-movement” to recover the losses of the preceding year, he says.
Since 2017, Germany’s steel market has lost 35% of its volume, which is more than twice seen in the entire EU, while it has since gone up in other regions, Theuringer reiterates. In terms of output of crude steel, the most recent months did see a slight year-on-year increase, but this is mainly owing to the base effect of particularly low production around mid-year 2023.
Germany, Europe’s long-time industrial engine room, urgently needs political measures to stop this downtrend, Theuringer warns.
Christian Koehl Germany
