HRC market seasonally quiet in Europe; post-summer price direction unclear

The supply and demand imbalance in the European hot-rolled coil market continued to drag prices lower on Thursday July 18, sources told Fastmarkets.

Offers from an integrated supplier in the Benelux area for August-September delivery were reported at €640-650 ($697-708) per tonne ex-works, while HRC with fourth-quarter lead times was offered higher at €660 per tonne ex-works.

One German mill was quite aggressive, offering coil with a four-week lead time at €625-630 per tonne ex-works.

But sources believed it was still possible to get €620 per tonne ex-works from most suppliers for August-September delivery coil in the case of a firm bid.

Target offers levels for after the summer break were voiced at €670 per tonne ex-works or delivered by leading European suppliers, Fastmarkets heard.

Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel HRC index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €628.13 per tonne on Thursday, up €0.38 per tonne from €627.75 per tonne the previous day.

The index was down by €4.37 per tonne week on week and also by €4.37 per tonne month on month.

But the likelihood of a price rebound after the summer holiday period remained uncertain, according to sources.

Some suggested that lower imports as a result of new safeguard measures and reduced output domestically following longer summer stoppages, could support a rebound in price.

“The imbalance between supply and demand continues. Some mills will prolong the holiday period hoping this will improve the imbalance and create more demand,” one buyer source in the Benelux area told Fastmarkets.

But others remained skeptical, claiming that the new safeguards and slightly lower domestic availability would not be enough to drive an HRC price rise while demand remains low.

“To make the difference in demand and supply, we should see mills taking out blast-furnaces  – like they did in [the fourth quarter of 2023]. Longer summer stoppages at some suppliers will not be enough,” a distributor in Germany said.

“As for the new safeguards – the effect will not be immediate. It will take the market half a year or even more to clear [import HRC ] tonnages which are currently in the pipeline,” the distributor added.

In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel HRC index domestic, exw Italy at €620.42 per tonne on Thursday, down by €0.21 per tonne from €620.63 per tonne on Wednesday.

The index was down by €5.83 per tonne week on week and by €9.16 per tonne month on month.

August-September delivery HRC from a local mill was heard offered at €640-650 per tonne delivered (€630-640 per tonne ex-works).

Buyer estimates of tradable prices were around €600-620 per tonne ex-works.

In the secondary market, 3-6mm HR sheet was still heard to be trading in the range of €710-730 per tonne CPT, broadly stable over the past seven days.

The market for overseas coil remained quiet, with most buyers holding back due to either looming risks related to new EU import safeguards or uncompetitive prices for import HRC.

Offers from Asia were limited.

Vietnam-origin coil was heard offered at €620 per tonne FCA Antwerp, but lead times were reported to be in Janaury 2025.

Buyer estimations of tradeable values for Asia-origin coils were no higher than €550-570 per tonne CFR, but no such offers were reported.

Offers of HRC from Turkey were available at €610 per tonne CFR to Italy, including the anti-dumping duty.

Published by: Julia Bolotova

fastmarkets.com