EU plus UK steel demand is forecast to decline 1.5% on-year in 2024 to 136.6 million tonnes, says worldsteel. 2025 demand should rebound 3.5%, Kallanish notes.
The developed world is projected to experience a 2% decrease in steel demand in 2024, as major steel using economies like the US, Japan, Korea and Germany face significant declines. “However, there is optimism for 2025, with a projected growth of 1.9% in developed world steel demand. This anticipated recovery is driven by the long-awaited upturn in steel demand in the EU, and modest recoveries in the US and Japan,” the report states.
Global manufacturing activity is expected to experience ongoing weakness, with a possible recovery anticipated in 2025, supported by improved conditions in major economies such as the eurozone and Japan. Construction sector activity has continued to be subdued in most major markets throughout 2024, particularly in the EU, which has adversely impacted steel demand. Worldsteel anticipates a recovery in EU construction will commence next year.
The automotive industry continues to be a focal point of the industry and a significant factor impacting European steel demand. The association observes a significant slowdown this year and anticipates only modest growth in global automotive production next year.
“Light vehicle production forecasts are being revised downwards across the board due to mounting concerns over rising inventories and a deceleration in battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales in key markets. This shift marks a stark contrast to the previous year’s robust performance, highlighting the industry’s vulnerability to evolving market dynamics and potential challenges ahead,” worldsteel notes.
The expansion of European renewable energy generation capacity will meanwhile result in a substantial boost to steel demand in the medium term.
Worldsteel has revised down its 2024 global steel demand forecast significantly, now expecting a 0.9% on-year decline to 1.75 billion tonnes, amid prolonged manufacturing sector and housing construction weakness. The previous projection was for 1.7% growth (see Kallanish passim).
Natalia Capra France