The HRC market in Europe was quiet on Friday, with prices seen as broadly flat and still way below producers’ target levels.
Notably, for HRC with lead times in the first quarter 2025, most offers have been ranging between €600 ($646) per tonne and €620 per tonne ex-works, sources said.
At the same time, for December lead times, it was still possible to achieve €550-570 per tonne ex-works with some suppliers, Fastmarkets heard.
“The order book situation at mills has improved somewhat in the past several weeks, but we are far away from booming [demand],” a mill source said.
“Stocks [of HRC] are low, but they are sufficient for the subdued demand [from the end-user side],” a buyer said.
A steel-service center (SSC) source said that shipments from SSCs to end users fell by around 30% year on year in September-October.
At the same time, the effect of trade defense measures, applied in the market in the third quarter 2024, was much less severe than had been expected.
“When new safeguards were applied [in July 2024] and anti-dumping against four countries started [in August 2024], we still had significant tonnages [of HRC] in the pipeline – whether shipped, or expected to be shipped, or sitting in ports. It will take the market some time, maybe up to January-February 2025, to clear this volume,” a buyer in Germany said.
“The first quarter [of 2025] might be a bit early [for HRC prices to recover], but [later in the year] we will see better prices, in view of the reduced imports and reduced availability,” another buyer said.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €558.75 per tonne on Friday, down by €1.96 per tonne from €560.71 per tonne on Thursday.
The index was up by €1.25 per tonne week on week and by €13.37 per tonne month on month.
In Southern Europe, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy at €552.50 per tonne on Friday, unchanged from the previous day.
The Italian index was down by €5.00 per tonne week on week, but up by €12.50 per tonne month on month.
Italian suppliers offered HRC with lead times of five to six weeks at €570-580 per tonne delivered, which nets back to €560-570 per tonne ex-works, according to sources.
Buyer estimations were lower, at €540-550 per tonne ex-works, Fastmarkets heard.
For first-quarter delivery HRC, price ideas were around €620 per tonne delivered (€610 per tonne ex-works).
It remains to be seen whether such prices can be accepted by buyers.
According to buyers, slow consumption and fierce competition downstream will make such an increase challenging.
But on the other hand, limited imports and lower offered HRC volumes could support a price rebound in the first quarter of 2025, sources said.
Import HRC offers remain uncompetitive in Europe, Fastmarkets heard.
HRC from Turkey was on offer at €580-600 per tonne CFR to Italy, including the anti-dumping duty, while offers from Asia came in at €550-570 per tonne CFR.
