Sluggish demand keeps European HRC market at standstill; lack of clarity on CBAM, safeguards cloud outlook

European steel hot-rolled coil prices were largely flat on Monday September 29 amid continued muted trading due to sufficient stocks at buyers as well as a lack of clarity on new trade measures and the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), sources have told Fastmarkets.

Fastmarkets’ calculation of the daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe was €577.92 ($676) per tonne on Monday, up by €0.21 per tonne from €577.71 per tonne on September 26.

The Northern European index was up by €0.42 per tonne week on week but down by €0.41 per tonne month on month.

In Germany and the Benelux area, buyers estimated achievable prices at no higher than €570-580 per tonne ex-works on Monday – in line with recent deals.

German mills were offering coil with lead times of five to six weeks around €590-600 per tonne delivered (€580-590 per tonne ex-works).

In the Benelux area, offers were reported at €590-610 per tonne ex-works from integrated mills for November and December delivery and at €560-570 per tonne ex-works from a re-roller.

Trading remained sluggish in the region, however.

Buyer sources told Fastmarkets they had no immediate need to buy HRC and were holding off until there was greater clarity regarding CBAM regulations and upcoming steel safeguard measures.

One source suggested the market direction will become clearer during the Blechexpo trade fair in Stuttgart, Germany, on October 21-24.

Fastmarkets’ daily steel HRC index, domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €550.63 per tonne ex-works on Monday, unchanged from September 26.

The Italian index was up by €0.63 per tonne week on week and up by €8.96 per tonne month on month.

Local participants described the Italian HRC market as “stable”, with prices “not moving anywhere yet.”

Mills’ attempts to push domestic HRC prices up to 570-580 per tonne ex-works have been largely unsuccessful so far, according to sources.

Buyers claimed to be well-booked for third and fourth quarters of 2025, “in line with sluggish end-user demand” and therefore were not chasing for tonnages, a distributor source said.

Local and European mills were able to offer November-delivery coil.

“Mills in Europe need to sell; [they are] not desperate for orders yet, however. So, we have a standstill in the market,” a buyer in Italy said.

Buying appetite for imported coil was also limited due to the uncertainty surrounding CBAM and new trade measures.

Smaller and medium-sized buyers told Fastmarkets they were avoiding booking coil overseas due to mounting risks.

“We are not in the market to buy Asian HRC because of CBAM. And also, from other customers I’ve heard they are not buying new imports because of CBAM,” a second buyer said.

“Turkey can be a viable option because they can deliver HRC in December, but [safeguards] quotas remain a risk. Third-quarter allocations were used up quickly; I believe the same will happen with October-December tonnages,” the second buyer added.

“Because of unclear CBAM rules we basically stopped at this moment the import activities,” a third buyer said.

Offers from Turkey were reported around €520-530 per tonne CFR, including the EU anti-dumping duty, for December arrival.

From India, offers were reported at €520-530 per tonne CFR for November-shipment coil.

At the same time, offers from Indonesia and Algeria were heard at €490-500 per tonne CFR.