Prices of flat and long steel products in Europe are expected to keep rising in the fourth quarter of 2026, adjusting to higher energy costs, global steel producer ArcelorMittal said in its report for the third quarter of 2026.
The company added that this would also affect the annual contracts for flat steel products, which represent more than 25% of Europe’s flat steel production volumes. The negotiations for the long-term contracts are still running, but Fastmarkets’ hot-rolled coil (HRC) indices have already shown an upward trend.
Producers in Northern Europe were heard seeking increases of €100-150 ($112-168) per tonne for long-term agreements for the first half of 2027 from levels agreed for the second half of 2026, but were unlikely to secure more than half of the requested increase, sources told Fastmarkets on October 30.
The average quarterly price of HRC in Northern Europe in the first quarter of 2026 was €671.70 per tonne, increasing to €695.13 per tonne in the second quarter and €723.87 per tonne in the third quarter of the year, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe showed.
A similar trend could be observed in Southern Europe. The average quarterly price of HRC in Italy was €659.86 per tonne in the first quarter, increasing to €685.56 per tonne in the second quarter and €713.57 per tonne in the third quarter, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy showed.
EU trade measures to support the positive trend
ArcelorMittal also expects the growth of flat steel shipments in Europe to accelerate during Q4 of 2026, reaching a double-digit year-on-year increase. The steel producer added that the medium- and long-term perspective remained positive, with the implemented EU trade measures contributing to the optimistic expectations.
On June 30, the European Commission announced tighter steel import quotas, which came into effect on July 1. “Enhanced EU trade measures are beginning to rebalance European steel market fundamentals, reducing import penetration and supporting higher domestic capacity utilization,” ArcelorMittal said in its report.
The steel producer added that after the implementation of the new tariff rate quota (TRQ), the company has brought all its European blast furnaces back into operation.
“The additional policy measures to expand protection downstream could further strengthen European industrial competitiveness and, with it, domestic steel demand, building on the positive impact already seen from enhanced steel trade measures,” the steel producer added.
Q3 results of the European division
Despite the positive expectations, the European division of the company reported a 4% decrease in crude steel production to almost 7.25 million tonnes in Q3 of 2026 compared to the previous quarter of the year, when it was 7.55 million tonnes. Crude steel production in Q3 of this year was also slightly lower than in the corresponding quarter of 2025, when it was 7.25 million tonnes.
Crude steel production of ArcelorMittal Europe was 21.63 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2026, compared to 22.77 million tonnes in the same period a year earlier.
Flat steel shipments in Europe increased by 1.1% to 5.19 million tonnes in Q3 of 2026 compared to the previous quarter, ArcelorMittal said. According to the company, this was related to normal seasonal trends and reflected the early impacts of the new TRQ mechanism. ArcelorMittal Europe’s flat steel shipments in Q3 of 2026 were also higher than those reported in the same period in 2025, when they were 5.07 million tonnes.
For the first nine months of 2026, flat steel shipments amounted to 15.65 million tonnes, still slightly lower than in the same period in 2025, when they were 15.73 million tonnes, ArcelorMittal’s recent report showed.
Long steel shipments in Europe amounted to 1.72 million tonnes in Q3 of 2026, compared to 2 million tonnes in the previous quarter. The long steel shipments in Q3 of 2025 were 1.93 million tonnes.
For the first nine months of 2026, the long steel shipments in Europe amounted to 5.51 million tonnes compared to 6.12 million tonnes in the same period last year. ArcelorMittal said that the decline was linked to seasonal factors. In addition, the impact of lower imports was offset by inventory destocking.
The European division of ArcelorMittal reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) amounting to $548 million in Q3 of 2026, compared with $697 million in the previous quarter of the year.
This reflects the impact of lower long product shipments and a temporary mismatch between rapidly rising input costs and realized selling prices, according to ArcelorMittal.
EBITDA in Q3 of 2026 was higher compared to the same quarter of 2025, when it reached $513 million.
For the first nine months of 2026, EBITDA of ArcelorMittal’s European division reached $1.7 billion compared to $1.5 billion in the same period of 2025.
Decarbonization in progress
ArcelorMittal underlined in its Q3 report that the energy transition remained an attractive opportunity for the company, with electric-arc furnace (EAF) investments playing a key role in the decarbonization of its steelmaking footprint.
The company added that its EAF project in Gijón (with planned capacity of 1.1 million tonnes per year) and the Sestao expansion were on track for commissioning in Q4 of 2026, with ramp-up through 2027.
The EAF at Dunkirk has moved into execution, the company added. At Dunkirk, ArcelorMittal is preparing to build a 2 million tonne per year EAF alongside a ladle metallurgy furnace (LMF), as part of its move toward lower-carbon steelmaking.
“Together, these projects are expected to add approximately 3.9 million tonnes per year of EAF capacity by 2029, supporting both decarbonization and long-term value creation,” ArcelorMittal said.
