UK’s All Steels says price escalation now ‘unavoidable’
UK-based trader AllSteels says an escalation in prices is now looking unavoidable amid a slew of inflationary factors, including US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, potential government demand and an expected reduction of safeguard quotes, Kallanish learns.
Lawrence McDougall, managing director, notes in a market evaluation sent to customers that the impact of globalisation and geopolitical tensions on the steel industry is set to be more pronounced than ever in the year ahead.
“President Trump’s decision to impose substantial steel tariffs on nearly all nations has far-reaching consequences, which will only intensify as other countries introduce similar retaliatory measures. The inevitable outcome of this scenario is a resurgence of inflation and rising steel prices,” he says.
The statement notes the gap between UK steel production and consumption, highlighting the country’s reliance on imports. For long products; structural sections, merchant bars and hollow sections, 86.16% of these imports come from the EU and Turkey.
McDougall says there have already been £20-30/tonne ($25-38/t) price increases by most European longs producers but notes this is only the first wave of such hikes.
“In the US, protectionist measures have already enabled domestic producers to raise steel prices on certain products by $165/t during February 2025 and the US scrap producers are wasting no time in taking a slice of this increase as well as enjoying the uptick in local demand.”
It notes upward movement in Kallanish’s North American hot rolled coil price during February, as an indicator of the price trend.
The firm has observed the impact of Trump’s tariffs on ferrous scrap, especially for Turkey, the biggest buyer of US scrap. It notes Turkey can either pay a premium for US scrap now, or buy from alternative markets.
“The latter scenario is already tightening scrap availability in Europe; as this supply and demand balance switches, prices are naturally increasing.”
In the coming months, McDougall expects a cut to both UK and EU safeguard quotas, dramatically heightening the risk of 25% import duties on long products.
This is in addition to the introduction of CBAM, which he sees as a standalone event will create one of the biggest upshifts in UK steel prices.
Therefore, as of 3 March, the company has increased its stock items by £20-30/t.
It also notes that stocks are very low across the supply chain, meaning demand is likely to jump quite quickly as buyers make their moves to beat price increases.
He also believes government infrastructure spending is imminent and will improve demand.
“We are at that turning point where we all need to be prepared for price escalation that now looks unavoidable,” he adds.
Carrie Bone UK
