Tariffs on Canada, Mexico definitely start Tuesday
Indicating that the time for negotiations on tariffs with Canada and Mexico is over, US President Donald Trump on Monday said he will proceed with the 25% tariffs on the two countries on Tuesday, Kallanish discovers from the White House press briefing.
Trump told reporters that there is no room for Canadian or Mexican officials to negotiate a reprieve from the levies.
“Tariffs, 25% on Canada, and 25% on Mexico … will start tomorrow,” Trump confirmed during the press gathering. “So they’re going to have a tariff, and what they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things, in the United States, in which case you have no tariffs.”
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday said she was waiting for Trump to make a decision about tariffs and that she might talk with him before the deadline. “Everything is possible,” she said.
John Isaacson USA
EU expects €28 billion loss in exports due to US steel and aluminum tariffs
According to a report by Bloomberg, the first round of the US president Donald Trump’s new steel and aluminum tariffs is expected to cost the European Union member states up to €28 billion in lost exports.
Maroš Šefčovič, European Trade Commissioner, noted that the current situation is constantly evolving, so the extent of any tariffs could still change.
European market players anticipate that the number of products affected will be four times higher than in 2018, as the list of the products subject to the tariffs also includes derivative steel items.
On February 10, Trump announced 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from trading partners with duty-free exemptions or tariff-rate quota deals, such as the EU, as SteelOrbis previously reported.
In 2024, the EU’s steel exports to the US amounted 3.89 million mt, with the value of the exports at $6.99 billion, according to census data from the US Department of Commerce.
US manufacturers confirm steel tariff-driven operational impediments
Operational upheaval caused by the recent bloat in US domestic steel prices and government tariff policies is seen as detrimental to various US businesses reliant on steel, Kallanish reports.
US farm equipment manufacturers, fabricators and automakers contend that President Donald Trump’s trade measures will impede growth and productivity in their respective industries.
Agriculture and construction equipment advocacy group Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) unequivocally renounces any perceived benefits to those two sectors. Any significant increase in steel prices has a ripple effect, and the cross-border nature of steel and agricultural commodities and inputs means that everyone in the supply chain would be hit with higher costs, AEM argues.
“The fact remains: Tariffs are a tax paid by Americans, and their broad-based application will stifle economic growth and undermine the competitiveness of the United States,” AEM senior vice president Kip Eideberg says in a statement.
A Northern California-based agriculture original equipment manufacturer (OEM) tells Kallanish that the complications involved with the tariffs are farther-reaching than he initially expected. His projected growth plan for the business may be stifled.
“When everyone starts panic buying and we can’t get quotes on steel that’s already like 20% higher than when I quoted my customers, there’s no choice but to get steel and pay the tariffs. Some of the components and parts we use are only made outside the US, so that will cost more than before too,” the OEM owner comments. “That raises base product prices on machines that are six-figures, plus if I go to export a machine, it’s gonna cost a Canadian customer even more. Why wouldn’t someone just open their own business there? These machines should last more than 30 years, so how many am I gonna sell in just the US?”
Service centres and distributors across the US note that most domestic flat-steel mills closed order books and pushed lead times into in April. Nucor’s published price for hot-rolled coil has shot up to $820/short ton, an increase of $70/st just since early January. SSAB Americas increased all steel prices by a minimum of $100/st last week. On Friday, Cleveland-Cliffs increased its HRC base price to $900/st after maintaining a consistent $800/st level since December.
Service centres seem “a little apocalyptic,” states the co-owner of an Oregon-based custom metal fabrication studio focused on structural and ornamental steelwork for residential and commercial projects.
“We already changed our agreements to five-day guarantees because that’s all our reps guarantee us. We have to charge a lot for the jobs we do and now customers don’t know if they want to pause or try to book us now and hope they can still afford the job when it comes time to start. It can take more than five days for them to even decide. Now, if I can’t even get steel, I don’t know what we will do. It’s very stressful. If we shut down then that’s less steel sold to anyone. Probably isn’t what anyone thought was going to happen but that is what will happen to us,” says the fabricator.
US automakers including Ford Motor and General Motors (GM) have voiced concerns about increasing costs to manufacturing and the uncompetitive pricing they may be forced to impose on consumers. At an automotive conference last week, GM chief financial officer Paul Jacobson floated the potential of relocating some of the company’s facilities.
“Those are questions that just don’t have an answer today, because (what) I can tell you is, as much as the market is pricing in a big impact of tariffs and lost profitability, we think about a world where on top of that, we’re spending billions of dollars in capital. So we can’t be whipsawing the business back and forth,” Jacobson stated bluntly.
Kristen DiLandro USA
US tariffs unlikely to sharply impact Spain
The 25% tariff on exports to the US, announced by President Donald Trump, is not expected to significantly impact Spain, according to the Spanish Chamber of Commerce (CCE). This is because relative prices of steel and aluminium are not anticipated to change substantially, CCE explains in a note seen by Kallanish.
“Change in the current trade framework would negatively impact Spain’s productive sector in aggregate terms. If the 25% tariff on EU steel imports remains in place, it could lead to a 10.4% decline in the total value of Spanish exports on average,” the commerce chamber observes.
Spanish steel exports to the US totalled 264,809 tonnes in 2024, up 0.4% compared to 263,825t in 2023. Their value was $412.2 million, according to data issued by the US Census Bureau.
In October 2021, the EU and the US agreed to implement a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) system for steel trade, which is in force until March. Under this system, 3.3 million tonnes/year of steel can be exported by the EU duty free into the US. However, once this quota is exceeded, a 25% tariff is applied.
Todor Kirkov Bulgaria
Trump officially imposes 25% tariffs on steel, aluminium
US President Donald Trump has officially issued a blanket 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports to the US, Kallanish reports.
The president signed an executive order creating the tariff on Monday night. The move was expected after Trump mentioned it informally on Sunday whilst travelling to the Super Bowl football game.
“It’s a big deal,” Trump said Monday in the Oval Office. “This is the beginning of making America rich again.”
Currently, the US has postponed the 25% tariff it planned to enact against Canada and Mexico.
Kristen DiLandro USA
Nippon Steel to ‘heavily invest’ in US Steel rather than acquire it: Donald Trump
Trump said the agreement will preserve American ownership of US Steel and will help the iconic company benefit from Japan’s steelmaking expertise.
“US Steel is a very important company to us. It was the greatest company in the world… 80 years ago, and we don’t want to see that leave. It wouldn’t actually leave, but the concept, psychologically, not good,” Trump said.
“They’ve agreed to invest heavily in US Steel as opposed to own it, and that’s very exciting,” he added.
Prime Minister Ishiba said Japan will invest $1 trillion in the US but provided no indication of how much Nippon Steel might invest in US Steel.
“They’re doing it as an investment, no longer a purchase. I didn’t want it bought, but investment I love,” Trump said.
“And we’ll meet with the head of [Nippon Steel] next week, a very great company, and they’ll work out the details and I’ll be there to help mediate and arbitrate,” Trump said.
LNG shipments
As part of the agreement between the US and Japan, President Trump pledged to begin shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) via a new pipeline in Alaska, a move he touted for also being able to bring trade between the two nations closer to an equal balance and away from Japan’s long-standing trade surplus.
The 807-mile proposed pipeline Alaska LNG would connect natural gas reserves in Northern Alaska to Nikiski for export, according to project developer Alaska Gasline Development Corporation (AGDC).
Assuming a standard 0.5-inch wall for the 42-inch line pipe specified for the 807-mile line, that means the line would consume about 472,577 short tons of steel.
Fastmarkets last assessed equivalent product steel ERW line pipe (X52), fob mill US at $1,250-1,300 per short ton on January 8.
The total steel value of the line, then, could range around $590 million-614 million.
Trump issued an executive order on January 20 requiring the federal government to prioritize the development of the Alaska LNG pipeline.
“Alaska LNG will annually strengthen the US balance of trade by approximately $10 billion, create thousands of jobs, and eliminate up to 2.3 billion tons of carbon emissions over the project’s 30-year authorization,” AGDC president Frank Richards said after the order was issued.
Market chatter
A steel distributor supported Nippon Steel’s potential investment as a positive for the company and the US.
“I have no doubt that Nippon is committed to making US Steel a success. They definitely need all that Nippon has to offer,” the distributor said.
“It’s unfortunate that a foreign entity needs to be the one that [invests in] US Steel, but if that’s the only offer, it needs to be allowed so they can be a continuing company,” they added.
Nippon Steel’s investment in US Steel is by no means a sure thing, the distributor said.
“Trump being the businessman and dealmaker, he may be able to get a couple [American] steel companies interested and broker a deal to have them buy US Steel instead,” they said.
United Steelworkers (USW) union president David McCall issued a statement reiterating opposition to any Nippon Steel investment in US Steel.
“While we await the details of the proposed investment, we encourage President Trump to continue safeguarding the long-term future of the domestic steel industry by instead seeking American alternatives,” USW stated.
Nippon Steel’s proposed $15 billion acquisition of US Steel was blocked by former President Joe Biden due to national security concerns in January, and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States ruled that the order blocking the deal would not be effective until June 18 to give Japan a chance to appeal it in court.
Alesha Alkaff in Boulder, Colorado, contributed to this story.
Trump will impose 25% tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
The US president said he planned sweeping tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports on Monday and would take other action to even out tariff rates with the rest of the world later this week.
Donald Trump has said he will announce new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US on Monday that would affect “everybody’, including its largest trading partners Canada and Mexico, in another major escalation of his trade policy overhaul.
Trump’s pre-announcement came as China’s retaliatory tariffs, announced last week, came into effect. The measures target $14bn worth of products with a 15% tariff on coal and LNG, and 10% on crude oil, farm equipment and some vehicles.
The US president, speaking to reporters on Air Force One on Sunday, also said he would announce reciprocal tariffs – raising US tariff rates to match those of trading partners – on Tuesday or Wednesday, which would take effect “almost immediately”. “And very simply, it’s, if they charge us, we charge them,” Trump said of the reciprocal tariff plan.
The move on steel and aluminum brought a swift reaction from Doug Ford, the premier of the Canadian province of Ontario, who accused the US president of “shifting goalposts and constant chaos” that would put the economy at risk.
Monday’s tariffs would come on top of existing metals duties.
Amid wider pushback against Trump’s economic heavy-handedness, French President Emmanuel Macron warned in an interview broadcast on Sunday that he was willing to go “head-to-head” on tariffs with the US president. “I already did so, and I will did (sic) it again.”
Macron told CNN that the EU should not be a “top priority” for the US, saying: “Is the European Union your first problem? No, I don’t think so. Your first problem is China, so you should focus on the first problem.”
Macron said tariffs would harm European economies but also the US, given the level of economic ties. “It means if you put tariffs on a lot of sectors, it will increase the costs and create inflation in the US. Is it what your people want? I’m not so sure,” he said.
He said the EU must be ready to react to US actions, but stressed that the 27-nation bloc should mainly “act for ourselves”. “This is why, for me, the top priority of Europe is competitiveness agenda, is defence and security agenda, is AI ambition, and let’s go fast for ourselves.
“If in the meanwhile, we have [a] tariff issue, we will discuss them and we will fix it.”
Trump has long complained about the EU’s 10% tariffs on auto imports being much higher than the US car rate of 2.5%. He frequently states that Europe “won’t take our cars” but ships millions west across the Atlantic every year.
Trump pushes tariffs, drilling, manufacturing on Inauguration Day
Donald Trump is officially the US president again, after a dramatic Inauguration Day on Monday that included a slew of promises and day-one executive orders with potential consequences for the steel supply chain.
In his inaugural address, Trump pledged to usher in a new “golden age” and “massive restoration of America.” The 47th president said he will offer stimulus for oil and gas drilling, greater domestic auto production and upgrades to military materiel – all achievable whilst wringing more out of the nation’s trading partners.
“We will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens,” Trump warned.
“America will be a manufacturing nation once again,” he emphasised.
Trump was set to sign formal executive orders on Monday night that include a call for federal agency reviews of trade policies including existing tariffs, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement and Buy America procurement rules. The initial pile of documents does not yet establish new tariffs. Nor were any international trade measures specified on the “Administration Priorities” page when the new Trump version of the whitehouse.gov website went live after his swearing-in. The list of priorities does include a pledge to resume construction of a border wall between the US and Mexico. When the prior Trump administration erected some sections of the wall, the project was a consumer of hollow structural sections.
Shortly after his victorious election in November, Trump proposed new tariffs of 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% on Chinese-made items (see Kallanish 27 November). The Canadian government has included US-made steel and aluminium on its list of potential retaliatory tariffs (see Kallanish 17 January).
Unlike the Trump administration of 2017-2021 when Wilbur Ross was commerce secretary, that department will not be run by a steel-industry luminary this time. Trump’s designee for commerce secretary is Howard Lutnick, chief executive of Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald. Lutnick is a supporter of tariffs and of a more aggressive adversarial geopolitical stance against China. He likely faces his Senate confirmation hearings in the next few days. Pending Lutnick’s confirmation, on Monday Trump appointed longtime Commerce deputy Jeremy Pelter as acting secretary.
In his first inaugural address in 2017, Trump never mentioned China by name. On Monday, he did so only once, as a rationale for seizing control of the Panama Canal. Trump mentioned steelmakers once in Monday’s speech, in the context of past achievements in building the US into a world power.
Peter Navarro, who served as director of the White House National Trade Council during the first Trump term, is back in the new administration as a senior counsellor for trade and manufacturing.
Late Monday, Trump signed executive orders freezing any new federal regulation and withdrawing the US from the Paris Agreement on climate. He has promised to ease regulations for the oil and gas industry and other corporate interests and to cut corporate taxes.
Dom Yanchunas USA
Trump reiterates intention to block USS/Nippon merger
US President-elect Donald Trump is reinforcing his campaign promise to block the acquistion of US Steel by Japan’s Nippon Steel, Kallanish reports.
“I am totally against the once great and powerful US Steel being bought by a foreign company, in this case Nippon Steel of Japan,” Trump proclaims in a message on social media platform Truth Social.
On Monday, Trump reiterated his objections to the deal and offered insight into how he imagines US Steel will thrive in an alternative scenario.
“Through a series of Tax Incentives and Tariffs, we will make U.S. Steel Strong and Great Again, and it will happen FAST!” wrote Trump.
The United Steelworkers (USW) labour union applauds Trump’s position.
“The USW welcomes President Trump’s continued opposition to Nippon Steel’s acquisition of US Steel, a deal with serious long-term implications for US economic and national security. Our union thanks him for his continuing commitment to American manufacturing and agrees with him that with proper attention, US Steel will flourish well into the future as a domestically owned and operated company,” the USW says in a statement after the latest Trump social media post.
The president-elect adds: “As President, I will block this deal from happening. Buyer Beware!!!”
David Burritt, chief executive of US Steel, has said the 123-year-old company would move out of its move out of its Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, headquarters if the acquisition is not allowed to proceed. The USW later called that statement a “bullying” tactic, which caught the attention of legislators who accused Burritt of being financially motivated if the deal succeeds.
Currently, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) is auditing the deal to assess potential national security risks to the US. The CFIUS initially had penned a letter to USS/Nippon noting its concerns that the acquisition would jeopardise America’s best interests. US President Joe Biden agreed to allow Nippon to refile essential paperwork and postpone the decision to allow CFIUS more time for consideration. The committee is expected to reach its decision this month and Biden would then be able to exert action for or against the deal.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba sent Biden a letter requesting that the US government approve the transaction. Biden has been vehemently opposed to the deal, vowing to oppose it.
Kristen DiLandro USA
EU HRC prices fall slightly amid uncertainty over US presidential election results
Domestic European hot-rolled coil prices fell slightly Nov. 6, as the announcement of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election created uncertainty for market participants, over the prospect of higher protectionism in the US market under a Trump administration.
Market activity remained subdued as demand was unchanged.
“The market is half dead,” a Germany-based trader source said. “Announced price increases from mills are not working, as there is no demand.”
The source described price increases by European mills as “wishful thinking,” while calling the situation “a fight for the lowest price.”
The source said there was no damage to mill orderbooks because of the election’s result, as most orderbooks were full until the end of the year.
According to the same source, there was “no real strengthening of the market,” due to poor construction and automotive demand domestically.
Platts assessed Northwest European HRC at Eur555/mt ex-works Ruhr Nov. 6, stable on the day.
Offers were reported at Eur560-640/mt ex-works Ruhr.
Platts assessed domestic HRC in Southern Europe at Eur550/mt ex-works Italy, down Eur5 on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur520/mt CIF Antwerp, down Eur10 on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Southern Europe at Eur525/mt CIF Italy, down Eur10 on the day.
