
Goldman Sachs expects global GDP growth of 2.7 percent in 2025
According to media reports, the US-based investment banking company Goldman Sachs has outlined seven macroeconomic predictions for 2025.
Looking at these predictions, the company forecasts global real GDP growth of 2.7 percent for 2025, driven by loosening financial conditions. Goldman Sachs expects US GDP growth of 2.4 percent in 2025 with robust income growth and financial easing, while GDP growth in the euro area is projected to be at 0.8 percent, reflecting the pressure of trade policy uncertainties and ongoing structural challenges in the manufacturing industry amid high energy prices and pressure from China’s exports. On the other hand, the bank predicts GDP growth in China will decrease to 4.5 percent in 2025 as policy easing measures will not be able to balance weak domestic consumption, and also given the challenges faced by the real estate industry and the impact of higher US tariffs.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects the US Federal Reserve to implement three interest rate cuts in 2025, in March, June and September, bringing the terminal rate to 3.5-3.75 percent, while the European Central Bank is expected to bring the policy rate to 1.75 percent by July 2025. However, there are potential downside risks: the policy rate could face deeper and faster cuts if growth and inflation weaken further in the EU.
Lastly, the bank advises investors to closely monitor US policy changes and geopolitical developments such as the situation in the Middle East, the war between Russia and Ukraine and US-China relations.

Indian steel mills face greatest CBAM risk: Goldman Sachs
Investment bank Goldman Sachs Group says in a report that Indian steel producers are the most at risk from Europe’s carbon plan, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), Kallanish notes.
This is due to two main factors: steel producers from India registering high sales to the European market, and Indian steel mills having an elevated emissions intensity. This puts them at more risk for carbon tax-related import charges.
In January, India was the largest HRC exporter to Italy, with shipments reaching 192,152 tonnes, according to data from Cybex.
According to the Goldman report by analysts led by Emma Jones, Indian steel mills could face an additional $102-190/tonne of carbon import tax charges on flows of Indian steel to the bloc over the next decade. This additional charge would account for 15-28% of current hot rolled coil prices, and assumes a carbon price of $70/t.
The CBAM carbon plan aims to levy charges on imported goods entering the European Union (EU), for certain energy-intensive sectors such as steel, to encourage cleaner pollution standards at its trading partners. The carbon tax will come into effect on 1 January 2026. The move has been met with strong criticism from overseas producers, including Russia and China.
The analysts say: “Indian steel producers operate at a carbon intensity level well above the EU and global level, potentially exposing them to elevated charges,” as they rely mainly on coal-based processes.
The report notes that, among the producers, Tata Steel and JSW Steel have the most direct exposure to the EU.
Indian mills have also been outspoken about the potential impact of this tax, likening it to a trade barrier. The Indian government is currently in discussions with the EU, in order to reach an agreement for concessions.
Suhita Poddar India
