According to media reports, the US-based investment banking company Goldman Sachs has outlined seven macroeconomic predictions for 2025.
Looking at these predictions, the company forecasts global real GDP growth of 2.7 percent for 2025, driven by loosening financial conditions. Goldman Sachs expects US GDP growth of 2.4 percent in 2025 with robust income growth and financial easing, while GDP growth in the euro area is projected to be at 0.8 percent, reflecting the pressure of trade policy uncertainties and ongoing structural challenges in the manufacturing industry amid high energy prices and pressure from China’s exports. On the other hand, the bank predicts GDP growth in China will decrease to 4.5 percent in 2025 as policy easing measures will not be able to balance weak domestic consumption, and also given the challenges faced by the real estate industry and the impact of higher US tariffs.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects the US Federal Reserve to implement three interest rate cuts in 2025, in March, June and September, bringing the terminal rate to 3.5-3.75 percent, while the European Central Bank is expected to bring the policy rate to 1.75 percent by July 2025. However, there are potential downside risks: the policy rate could face deeper and faster cuts if growth and inflation weaken further in the EU.
Lastly, the bank advises investors to closely monitor US policy changes and geopolitical developments such as the situation in the Middle East, the war between Russia and Ukraine and US-China relations.
