EU starts anti-dumping case into CRC from 4 countries
The European Commission has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imports of cold-rolled flat steel originating from India, Japan, Turkey, Vietnam and Taiwan, according to an entry in the Official Journal of the European Union dated 18 September.
The Commission also intends to instruct customs to start registration of the steel under investigation to allow retroactive introduction of definitive duties.
Earlier this month, McCloskey reported that the case into cold-rolled coil from India, Japan Vietnam and Taiwan, China as well as from Turkey was forthcoming.
The probe was started following a complaint lodged by the European steel association Eurofer on behalf of EU steelmakers on 4 August this year. Eurofer provided evidence that the imports in question had increased overall in absolute terms and in terms of market share and that the material sold harmed the EU steel industry.
The complainant also alleged that the raw materials in used in cold-rolled steel exports are subject to export duties and restrictions in the countries of origin, and since they account for more than 17% of total costs this indicated a market distortion. The raw materials in question are iron ore and steel scrap in India, and the same raw materials and coal in Vietnam.
The products subject to the investigation are currently classified under CN codes ex 7209 15 00, 7209 16 90, 7209 17 90, 7209 18 91, ex 7209 18 99, ex 7209 25 00, 7209 26 90, 7209 27 90, 7209 28 90, 7211 23 30, ex 7211 23 80, ex 7211 29 00, 7225 50 80, 7226 92 00 (TARIC codes 7209 15 00 90, 7209 18 99 90, 7209 25 00 90, 7211 23 80 19, 7211 23 80 95, 7211 23 80 99, 7211 29 00 19, 7211 29 00 99).
The EU authorities will make a definitive decision in the case no later than 14 months after the case was opened, and the provisional measures will be imposed no later than within seven months.
Maria Tanatar Associate Director, Steel and Green Steel
EU Proposes Provisional Duties on HRC Imports from Japan, Egypt, and Vietnam – India Exempted
The anti-dumping investigation was started after the European steel association Eurofer lodged a complaint last June on behalf of European producers, alleging that HRC imports from four countries — India, Japan, Egypt and Vietnam — are being dumped and have been causing material injury to the European steel industry, Fastmarkets reported.
The pre-disclosure document, revealing proposed provisional duties for each origin, was made available on March 14. Provisional duties are set to be imposed as of April 7.
The AD probe is expected to be conducted by early October, with definitive measures to follow.
In the meantime, the highest duties were proposed for Japanese suppliers: 32% for JFE Steel Corporation and Daido Steel Co., Ltd, and 33% for Nippon Steel Corporation and all other companies — apart from Tokyo Steel, which got a relatively low duty of 6.9%.
For Egypt, the provisional duty rate for Ezz Steel and all other companies was set at 15.6%.
For Vietnam, provisional duties were set at 12.1% for Formosa Ha Tinh Steel Corporation and all other companies apart from Hoa Phat Dung Quat Steel Joint Company — no duty was proposed on its imports.
And, surprisingly, no provisional duties were suggested for Indian companies.
These four countries altogether supplied 3.9 million tonnes of HRC to the EU in 2024, accounting for 41.2% of total HRC imports to the bloc, Global Trade Tracker stats showed.
Market sources had split views on the potential market effect.
Notably, several sources suggested that safeguard caps, in combination with the duties, will limit imports to the EU, making overseas bookings increasingly risky for EU buyers.
Adjustments to steel safeguard measures were made available on Tuesday March 11.
For HRC, the cap per country over the tariff rate quota (TRQ) volume initially available in each quarter has been reduced from 15%, originally proposed in July, to 13%.
On top of that, quarterly quota allocations have also been reduced. For example, for India, which has an individual quarterly quota, the allocation for April-June 2025 was cut by 24.6%. And for “other countries” — under which Egypt, Vietnam and Japan fall — the allocation was cut by 8.4%.
“It’s like gambling these days; when you book HRC from overseas mills, you don’t know how much it’s going to cost you in the end,” one buyer said.
Other sources said that the effect will be limited for some origins because, for example, Vietnamese material “will be manageable even with a duty, just like Turkish HRC is now,” a trader in Italy said.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil, import, cfr main port Northern Europe was €560-580 per tonne on March 14, stable week on week.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europe at €636.19 per tonne on March 14, up by €0.10 per tonne from €636.09 per tonne on March 13.
The Northern European index was up by €5.25 per tonne week on week and by €32.86 per tonne month on month.
Accelerated push for EU-India free trade agreement raises concerns for European steel industry
Sources within the European steel industry have expressed concern at the announcement by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that India and the EU are aiming to finalize a free trade agreement by the end of the year.
Speaking during a Feb. 28 joint press engagement in New Delhi with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, von der Leyen affirmed that a closer alliance with India would be “a cornerstone of Europe’s policy in the years and decades to come,” built on enhanced cooperation on trade, technology, security and defense.
“A free trade agreement between the EU and India would be the largest deal of this kind anywhere in the world. I am well aware it will not be easy. But I also know that timing and determination counts, and that this partnership comes at the right moment for both of us,” von der Leyen said. “This is why we have agreed with Prime Minister Modi to push to get it done during this year. And you can count on my full commitment to make sure we can deliver,”
India and the EU resumed talks on a free trade agreement in 2021 after negotiations collapsed in 2013.
The EU wants India to lower tariffs of more than 100% on imported cars, whiskey and wine, while India seeks greater EU access for its drugs and chemicals producers.
India is also strongly opposed to Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which levies a carbon tax on certain exports into the EU including steel, aluminum and cement.
The CBAM is in a transition phase that started Oct. 31, 2023, and will phase in from 2026 through 2034. The iron-steel industry is expected to be sector most severely by the implementation of the CBAM.
The EU has significantly stepped up its efforts to sign trade agreements with third countries since the reelection of US President Donald Trump, announcing trade agreements with the Mercosur bloc – pending ratification – as well as with Mexico and Malaysia.
On Feb. 26, US President Donald Trump stated that he plans to place a 25% tariffs on all EU-produced goods, claiming the that bloc was established to “screw the United States.”
For her part, von der Leyen said, “It is time to be pragmatic and ambitious. And to realign our priorities for today’s realities.”
Sources within the European steel market expressed concern at the potential concessions the EU could offer as part of any free trade agreement with India.
“Von der Leyen opening [trade negotiations] with India is worrying,” a source within the Italian stainless steel scrap industry told Platts. “The Indian market is so aggressive, if they cancel [European] safeguarding measures then it could be a disaster for Italian steel works. I worry because the Indian market can get cheap raw materials from Indonesia, so when they export to Europe they can offer material at a lower price, it could undercut the European market.”
Steel imports from India is currently subject to a series of EU reviews and investigations.
The European Commission announced Aug. 8 an anti-dumping investigation for certain non-ferrous products originating from Egypt, India, Japan and Vietnam. The announcement, published in the Official Journal of the European Union, said that European Steel federation Eurofer lodged a complaint alleging that the imports of certain hot-rolled flat products originating from these four nations were being dumped into the market and, therefore, causing economic damage to the bloc.
In addition, the EC is currently conducting a review of the safeguard measures applicable to imports of certain steel products to reassess the allocation and management of tariff rate quotas to ensure they align with current market dynamics and stakeholder interests. India is one of the countries affected by this measure as it has a substantial interest in exports of stainless steel bars to the EU.
European domestic hot-rolled coil prices saw a modest uptick on Feb. 28, with market participants closely monitoring the EU safeguard review, which is expected to impact import volumes and pricing dynamics.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur612.50/mt ex-works Ruhr, up Eur2.50 on the day. In Southern Europe, HRC was assessed at Eur605/mt ex-works Italy, stable on the day.
Platts assessed imported HRC in Northwest Europe at Eur550/mt CIF Antwerp, and at Eur545/mt CIF South Europe, both stable on the day.
India HRC export activity remains curbed
Indian hot and cold rolled coil export activity to Europe continues to be weak amid the anti-dumping investigation and summer holidays in the EU, Kallanish learns from sources.
In Europe, no new India-origin HRC offers have been heard this week, for the third consecutive week. The last heard offers were at around $640-650/tonne cfr Antwerp, or $590-600/t fob India, for S235 grade, August/September shipment.
In August, the European Commission launched an anti-dumping probe against HRC from India, Egypt, Japan, and Vietnam. Turkey also issued dumping margins on India-origin HRC, at 11.65% for Tata Steel and at 18.26% for other mills.
Indian traders are unsure of when demand and trading activity will recover in the EU. Sources are not anticipating any EU buying to happen until the ongoing AD investigation is concluded.
Earlier, market sources had estimated activity in the EU may improve from September following the summer holiday lull.
According to the EU’s TARIC portal, India’s third-quarter EU safeguard quota balance stands at 66,926 tonnes as of 19 August, meaning 78% of the available quota is exhausted.
No new Indian-origin CRC offers to Europe were heard this week either. The last heard offers were at around $725-740/t cfr Antwerp, or $675-690/t fob India, for DC01 grade, August/September shipment, with offer prices negotiable.
In the South Asian market, no new India-origin offers to Nepal or Bangladesh were heard this week. Last week, offers to Nepal were heard at $565-575/t cfr delivered up to Raxaul Road/the Nepal border. Sources say Nepal buyers were postponing buying by 3-7 days amid falling prices. Chinese offer prices to Nepal were heard by two traders at as low as $450/t fob China.
In the African market, no new offers were heard this week, with traders noting payment issues were a challenge in the region. The most recent, limited offers, only applicable for select buyers, were reported at $580-590/t cfr Djibouti for end-August/September shipment, LC at sight, base commercial grades.
India continued to remain out of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Asia and other export markets, with no new offers heard this week.
Last week, several new trade cases were announced involving India. Malaysia launched an AD probe into Indian flat steel and some other origins. India also launched a HRC probe against Vietnam, following Vietnam’s starting of an investigation on India- and China- origin HRC.
Following the multiple AD probes, sources expect India will focus on its domestic market, and is unlikely to look towards exporting to international markets. A source adds that, even if India plans to return to the GCC market, it will be very difficult to compete since Chinese prices are very low.
Suhita Poddar India
Indian steel mills face greatest CBAM risk: Goldman Sachs
Investment bank Goldman Sachs Group says in a report that Indian steel producers are the most at risk from Europe’s carbon plan, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), Kallanish notes.
This is due to two main factors: steel producers from India registering high sales to the European market, and Indian steel mills having an elevated emissions intensity. This puts them at more risk for carbon tax-related import charges.
In January, India was the largest HRC exporter to Italy, with shipments reaching 192,152 tonnes, according to data from Cybex.
According to the Goldman report by analysts led by Emma Jones, Indian steel mills could face an additional $102-190/tonne of carbon import tax charges on flows of Indian steel to the bloc over the next decade. This additional charge would account for 15-28% of current hot rolled coil prices, and assumes a carbon price of $70/t.
The CBAM carbon plan aims to levy charges on imported goods entering the European Union (EU), for certain energy-intensive sectors such as steel, to encourage cleaner pollution standards at its trading partners. The carbon tax will come into effect on 1 January 2026. The move has been met with strong criticism from overseas producers, including Russia and China.
The analysts say: “Indian steel producers operate at a carbon intensity level well above the EU and global level, potentially exposing them to elevated charges,” as they rely mainly on coal-based processes.
The report notes that, among the producers, Tata Steel and JSW Steel have the most direct exposure to the EU.
Indian mills have also been outspoken about the potential impact of this tax, likening it to a trade barrier. The Indian government is currently in discussions with the EU, in order to reach an agreement for concessions.
Suhita Poddar India
