India HRC export activity remains curbed
Indian hot and cold rolled coil export activity to Europe continues to be weak amid the anti-dumping investigation and summer holidays in the EU, Kallanish learns from sources.
In Europe, no new India-origin HRC offers have been heard this week, for the third consecutive week. The last heard offers were at around $640-650/tonne cfr Antwerp, or $590-600/t fob India, for S235 grade, August/September shipment.
In August, the European Commission launched an anti-dumping probe against HRC from India, Egypt, Japan, and Vietnam. Turkey also issued dumping margins on India-origin HRC, at 11.65% for Tata Steel and at 18.26% for other mills.
Indian traders are unsure of when demand and trading activity will recover in the EU. Sources are not anticipating any EU buying to happen until the ongoing AD investigation is concluded.
Earlier, market sources had estimated activity in the EU may improve from September following the summer holiday lull.
According to the EU’s TARIC portal, India’s third-quarter EU safeguard quota balance stands at 66,926 tonnes as of 19 August, meaning 78% of the available quota is exhausted.
No new Indian-origin CRC offers to Europe were heard this week either. The last heard offers were at around $725-740/t cfr Antwerp, or $675-690/t fob India, for DC01 grade, August/September shipment, with offer prices negotiable.
In the South Asian market, no new India-origin offers to Nepal or Bangladesh were heard this week. Last week, offers to Nepal were heard at $565-575/t cfr delivered up to Raxaul Road/the Nepal border. Sources say Nepal buyers were postponing buying by 3-7 days amid falling prices. Chinese offer prices to Nepal were heard by two traders at as low as $450/t fob China.
In the African market, no new offers were heard this week, with traders noting payment issues were a challenge in the region. The most recent, limited offers, only applicable for select buyers, were reported at $580-590/t cfr Djibouti for end-August/September shipment, LC at sight, base commercial grades.
India continued to remain out of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Asia and other export markets, with no new offers heard this week.
Last week, several new trade cases were announced involving India. Malaysia launched an AD probe into Indian flat steel and some other origins. India also launched a HRC probe against Vietnam, following Vietnam’s starting of an investigation on India- and China- origin HRC.
Following the multiple AD probes, sources expect India will focus on its domestic market, and is unlikely to look towards exporting to international markets. A source adds that, even if India plans to return to the GCC market, it will be very difficult to compete since Chinese prices are very low.
Suhita Poddar India
Indian steel mills face greatest CBAM risk: Goldman Sachs
Investment bank Goldman Sachs Group says in a report that Indian steel producers are the most at risk from Europe’s carbon plan, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), Kallanish notes.
This is due to two main factors: steel producers from India registering high sales to the European market, and Indian steel mills having an elevated emissions intensity. This puts them at more risk for carbon tax-related import charges.
In January, India was the largest HRC exporter to Italy, with shipments reaching 192,152 tonnes, according to data from Cybex.
According to the Goldman report by analysts led by Emma Jones, Indian steel mills could face an additional $102-190/tonne of carbon import tax charges on flows of Indian steel to the bloc over the next decade. This additional charge would account for 15-28% of current hot rolled coil prices, and assumes a carbon price of $70/t.
The CBAM carbon plan aims to levy charges on imported goods entering the European Union (EU), for certain energy-intensive sectors such as steel, to encourage cleaner pollution standards at its trading partners. The carbon tax will come into effect on 1 January 2026. The move has been met with strong criticism from overseas producers, including Russia and China.
The analysts say: “Indian steel producers operate at a carbon intensity level well above the EU and global level, potentially exposing them to elevated charges,” as they rely mainly on coal-based processes.
The report notes that, among the producers, Tata Steel and JSW Steel have the most direct exposure to the EU.
Indian mills have also been outspoken about the potential impact of this tax, likening it to a trade barrier. The Indian government is currently in discussions with the EU, in order to reach an agreement for concessions.
Suhita Poddar India