Polish rebar prices inch up on limited availability
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, cpt Poland, was 2,600-2,610 zloty per tonne ($627-630) on Friday, narrowing upward by 20 zloty per tonne from 2,580-2,610 zloty per tonne a week earlier.
Polish mills were heard offering rebar at 2,610-2,650 zloty per tonne CPT, but buyers did not consider the upper end of that price range to be workable, Fastmarkets heard.
According to industry sources, Polish mills were not willing to give significant discounts, with the workable market price estimated at 2,600-2,610 zloty per tonne CPT.
The Polish rebar market has not fully restarted after the winter holiday break, and no major deals were heard in the assessment week.
Some deals for large volumes exceeding 1,000 tonnes were heard at the end of December at 2,550-2,570 zloty per tonne CPT. But these prices were not included in the assessment because they were not in line with Fastmarkets’ methodology.
A trader source told Fastmarkets that such prices could not be considered indicative of the market because, due to the tonnages, individual prices were negotiated.
According to industry sources, the slight price increase for Polish rebar was due to the limited availability of material during the assessment week.
“Demand is not great. The only reason prices have not started to fall is the restricted quantities available from mills,” a distributor source told Fastmarkets.
The source added that one Polish mill was trying to produce less rebar than normal. “They are inventing stoppages and trying to transition from three to two working shifts,” the distributor said.
According to the same source, prices will start to fall again by the end of January, when more competitive imports were expected to begin arriving at the country’s warehouses.
The trader source also confirmed that limited imports recently had supported the domestic rebar prices.
“In December, there were not [many import] offers from Italy and Germany,” the trader source said, adding that the good weather conditions were also favorable for the construction sector – the main consumer of rebar. All these factors supported domestic prices.
In terms of imports, Germany has been heard offering rebar to Poland at €605 ($623) per tonne delivered since the beginning of 2025.
Offers from Ukraine were heard at €530-550 per tonne delivered at the border.
Long steel consumption ‘below historic levels’
Long steel consumption in Europe has been substantially below historic levels, steel manufacturer CMC, which is present in Poland, said in its report for the fiscal first quarter of 2025 (September-November 2024) on January 6.
“The beneficial effects of improving Polish demand in certain end-market applications, and regional supply discipline, have been largely offset by increased import flows from neighboring nations that have sought an outlet for product not consumed within their home markets,” CMC said.
Last year, Germany significantly increased its rebar exports to neighboring countries to compensate for the lack of activity in its domestic construction sector.
Europe Steel Group, representing CMC’s operations in Europe, recorded net sales of $209.4 million during its fiscal first quarter. This was a decrease of 5.7% compared with the previous quarter’s $222.1 million.
Its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) were $25.8 million for the first fiscal quarter. But the positive financial result was due to an annual CO2 credit associated with a government program, CMC said.
“Excluding this credit,” the company added, “financial results deteriorated modestly compared with the prior two quarters (EBITDA losses of $3.6 million and $4.2 million respectively) due to metal margin compression driven by high import volumes.”
Italian rebar prices tick up further despite quiet
Some Italian rebar producers are initiating discussions regarding a potential price increase of approximately €20/tonne ($20.6) for deliveries in January, effective next week, Kallanish hears.
Mills previously raised values in December, just before temporarily shutting down their operations for the year-end holiday break. Since then, January asking prices have been at €340/t base ex-works. This compares with €320/t base ex-works earlier in December, which was also achieved in transactions.
Current transaction volume is limited, as buyers are exhibiting a cautious approach, opting to observe market conditions before making commitments. Two buyers, however, say they need to purchase this week.
A few contracts are reported to have been concluded at the base ex-works price of €330/t. A number of buyers are sceptical about the feasibility of an additional €20/t increase, as the €360/t threshold appears unsustainable given the current weak utilisation and pricing dynamics downstream.
Current transactions are priced at €590/t ex-works, including size extras averaging at approximately €260/t. Domestic mesh contracts are also increasing to €430/t, excluding transportation costs – size extras are an additional €300/t, according to sources.
Subdued sales activity continues this week. A rebar seller anticipates the price range of €330-340/t will consolidate next week before contract values progressively rise to a base of €360/t ex-works.
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Prices rise in Northern European rebar market; wire rod prices stable
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered Northern Europe was €640-645 ($661-666) per tonne on Wednesday, narrowing upward by €30 per tonne from €610-645 per tonne week on week.
Mills raised their rebar offer prices in Northern European after reopening following Christmas closures. The market largely accepted these price rises, Fastmarkets heard.
Meanwhile, international scrap prices edged downward on a weekly basis but increased month on month, Fastmarkets heard.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of its daily index for steel scrap, HMS 1&2 (80:20 mix), North Europe origin, cfr Turkey was $338.31 per tonne on Wednesday, down from $348.12 per tonne a week earlier and up from $325.00 per tonne a month ago.
The corresponding Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel wire rod (mesh quality), domestic, delivered Northern Europe was at €610-620 per tonne, stable week on week.
Italian rebar makers push up prices
Several Italian rebar producers are halting sales and seeking a €20/tonne ($20.8) increase for deliveries scheduled in January. Mills have already increased values this month and will continue to deliver material until the end of this week, Kallanish notes.
Current quotes from producers are positioned at €320/t base ex-works, applicable for orders delivered by the end of this month. For contracts executed in January, asking prices are set at €340-350/t base ex-works. This indicates a significant rise from the November asking price of €300/t base ex-works.
Current transactions, for December delivery, are positioned within the €300-320/t base ex-works range. A number of rebar mills are going to cease operations by the end of this week, with some having already suspended their facilities. Activity will resume on 7 January.
Current transactions are priced within the €560-580/t ex-works range, including size extras averaging approximately at €260/t. Domestic mesh contracts are at €410-420/t, excluding transportation costs – size extras are an additional €300/t, according to sources.
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US extends rebar AD order on 7 nations, including Poland and Latvia
The US International Trade Commission (ITC) has ruled that antidumping duties on imports of rebar from seven nations should not be removed, Kallanish discovers in a federal document.
“Revocation of the antidumping duty orders on rebar from Belarus, China, Indonesia, Latvia, Moldova, Poland and Ukraine would be likely to lead to continuation or recurrence of material injury to an industry in the United States within a reasonably foreseeable time,” the ITC writes in a notice circulated Thursday.
The latest determination is a result of a fourth round of five-year sunset reviews.
After the prior review in 2018, the Department of Commerce issued average dumping margins of 114.53% for Belarus, 133% for China, 71.01% for Indonesia, 16.99% for Latvia, 232.86% for Moldova, 52.07% for Poland and 41.69% for Ukraine. Commerce’s case originated in 2001.
The AD order includes all steel concrete reinforcing bars sold in straight lengths. Excluded are plain round bars and processed rebar that has been bent or coated.
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Polish rebar producers test market with higher prices
The new offer prices were reported to be at 2,580-2,600 zloty ($637-642) per tonne CPT, and in some cases even reaching 2,650 zloty per tonne CPT.
In comparison, at the start of November, Polish rebar was on offer at 2,550 zloty per tonne CPT. But mills in the nation were hungry for orders and agreed on some discounts.
As a result, prices in deals dropped to 2,530 zloty per tonne CPT, and for larger volumes of more than 1,000 tonnes, transactions were concluded at 2,500 zloty per tonne CPT.
“There is a very strong conviction among all [Polish] mills that such low prices are not acceptable,” a distributor source told Fastmarkets.
“Polish producers say that they are fully booked for December,” a second distributor source told Fastmarkets.
Local mills are planning long closures for the upcoming Christmas holidays, starting from the middle of December until January 6, 2025, the source added.
This is also expected to have some impact on Polish rebar availability, Fastmarkets understands.
The second distributor added that local mills had sold good volumes at the lower price levels over the past few weeks and no longer have a strong incentive to offer significant discounts.
No deals were heard at the new price levels.
“Buyers will wait to see what will happen in January,” the second distributor source said.
According to industry sources, some material for prompt delivery could still be negotiated at 2,550-2,570 zloty per tonne CPT.
One buyer source estimated the workable market level even lower at 2,500 zloty per tonne CPT.
Reflecting the new higher offers and buyers’ estimations, Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar) domestic, cpt Poland was 2,500-2,580 zloty per tonne on Friday, widening upward by 70 zloty per tonne from 2,500-2,510 zloty per tonne on November 29.
In terms of imports, no fresh offers for the first quarter of 2025 were heard in the Polish market.
Small price rises in Italian rebar market; wire rod stable despite higher mill offers
Mills increased their rebar and wire rod offer prices, but the higher wire rod prices have yet to be accepted, Fastmarkets understands – although mill sources said they were optimistic the higher levels will be implemented before Christmas closures.
In Spain, meanwhile, rebar prices remained unchanged, with market participants holding out against any higher offers.
Fastmarkets price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar) domestic, exw Italy was €570-600 ($591-612) per tonne on Wednesday up by €10-20 per tonne from €560-580 per tonne week-on-week.
The minimum level in Italy was up by €10 per tonne week on week, source said.
“The prices have increased so far this week and are still [rising],” a buyer source told Fastmarkets. “But some producers stopped production due to the high cost of electricity and scrap [and] we are closer to the Christmas holidays and, in a few days, mills will [start to] close until January.”
A second trader source said that demand was good last week and had not been so bad so far this week.
“The rebar price is now at €580-590 per tonne, but customers are still receiving material ordered last week at €560-570 per tonne,” the second trader source said.
“Maybe producers will increase prices again before the Christmas closures,” the second trader source added.
International scrap prices, meanwhile, have remained steady compared with last week, although they are down month on month because of slow steel sales, sources told Fastmarkets.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of its daily index for steel scrap, HMS 1&2 (80:20 mix), North Europe origin, cfr Turkey, was $333.00 per tonne on Wednesday, down from $336.95 per tonne a week earlier and from $361.37 per tonne in the first week of November.
Elsewhere in Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered, Spain was €580-600 per tonne on Wednesday unchanged week on week.
“The Spanish market has not changed, but we hear that German mills have increased their offer prices. Once the new levels are accepted in Northern Europe or Italy, the Spanish producers will [also] increase [their offers],” a producer source told Fastmarkets.
Southern European wire rod
Fastmarkets’ price assessment for steel wire rod (mesh quality), domestic, delivered Southern Europe, was €600-610 per tonne on Wednesday, stable week on week.
Mills increased offers by €10-20 per tonne in Southern Europe, but workable prices remained stable at €600-610 per tonne, sources told Fastmarkets.
“Mills want to increase prices but, so far, I am seeing a rolling over of November prices” a trader source told Fastmarkets. “We shall see if such increases will be achieved and, if yes, how long it will last.”
A second trader source said: “There have been pushes for increases, but no actual deals yet,” a second trader source told Fastmarkets.
And a wire rod producer source said there were reasons to be optimistic.
“We are facing a weak market, but we are seeing a willingness among customers to accept small price rises compared with November. This is probably because December is a period when it is more difficult to source supplies compared with other times of year when supplies are more abundant. So if the market continues to show positive signs, we will implement further price rises,” the source said.
Market conditions remain weak across steel longs market; no recovery in sight, according to IREPAS outlook
Some sources in the Italian market said that the minimum price for rebar had increased, but other sources reported stability in the market.
Fastmarkets price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar) domestic, exw Italy was €560-580 ($694-615) per tonne on Wednesday, stable since October 23.
According to some sources, the price floor has risen by €10-20 per tonne to €570-580 per tonne, but others said workable prices were still present in the market at lower levels.
“We are still seeing a price of €580 per tonne, but before the end of the month producers believe they will [see higher prices],” one buyer source said, citing stable scrap prices and increasing energy costs.
But other sources reported stability.
“Rebar price offers are around €580 per tonne, but major producers are still offering at €560-570 per tonne so it is difficult to close orders at the new price. Demand is not so good these days. Customers are not in buying mode; they prefer to wait and see,” a second buyer source told Fastmarkets.
Meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered, Spain was €580-600 per tonne on Wednesday, stable week on week.
Market conditions were reported to be stable in the Spanish domestic market.
“Everything is very calm. Major mills have not increased prices. In terms of imports, the ports are full and while third countries have increased prices, Spanish customers are not interested. Locally you can still see very low prices and weak activity,” a producer source told Fastmarkets.
Some sources reported bids at lower than €580 per tonne, but these price levels were not considered workable.
Southern European wire rod
Fastmarkets’ price assessment for steel wire rod (mesh quality), domestic, delivered Southern Europe was €600-610 per tonne on Wednesday, narrowing downward by €20 per tonne from €600-630 per tonne the previous week.
IREPAS’ short-range November outlook
Sentiment and outlook remained depressed in the steel longs market across Europe, according to the short-range outlook published by IREPAS on November 8, 2024.
Stringent regulatory challenges, high energy costs, high interest rates, challenging logistics and geopolitical uncertainty continued to drive weak demand, the report said.
A drastic reduction in private and public investment has significantly affected consumption in the construction sector.
“The building industry is experiencing a tsunami with order books as empty as they were 15 years ago. Unfortunately, no light at the end of the tunnel is anticipated in 2025,” the report said.
CBAM is step forward but not enough to rebalance global markets, European IREPAS conference attendees say
CBAM, a carbon tariff for all carbon-intensive products imported into the European Union, was passed by the European Commission in December 2022 and its transitional phase began in October 2023.
Starting in October 2023, buyers of goods originating outside the EU must purchase certificates which equal the total emissions in the production of the goods.
There is no limit to the number of certificates that can be purchased to avoid restricting trade.
The cost of these certificates are calculated by the European Commission on a weekly basis according to the average price of the closing EU Emission Trading System (ETS) carbon dioxide (CO2) allowances for each week.
Impact of CBAM
CBAM can help to address imbalances related to European companies who are constrained by carbon taxes attempting to compete with countries who are not subject to any regulatory strictures, Louis Redshaw, Founder of Redshaw Advisors, told IREPAS attendees.
CBAM will help reduce carbon leakage, Redshaw said.
Carbon leakage was described when, for reasons of costs related to climate policies, businesses were to transfer production to other countries with more relaxed emission constraints, in turn resulting in an increase in their total emissions.
By placing a fair price on the carbon emitted during the production of all carbon-intensive products entering Europe, European mills, who currently need to pay for carbon credits equivalent to their carbon emissions, will be on a more equitable basis with importing countries who do not currently have the same taxes in place.
Some European market participants, however, were skeptical about how effective CBAM would be in rebalancing the playing field.
Carbon credits
European companies must buy carbon credits, normally from the government, to produce steel. When a company buys a carbon credit they can generate one ton of CO2 emissions.
The development of carbon credits turned carbon dioxide into a commodity, which could be monetized like any commodity.
Currently, the top 10% of the lowest emitting steel producers in Europe do not pay for carbon credits, while the remaining 90% of European steel producers have to pay varying amounts for carbon credits to offset their carbon emissions.
Pre-CBAM, European domestic mills were burdened by the cost of climate policies which non-EU countries were not, making them uncompetitive.
“CBAM will help to make competition fair. If importers are not taxed similarly to European mills, the European steel industry will die,” Redshaw said.
The greater a producer’s emission, the more they need to pay for carbon credits, thus incentivizing them to invest in decarbonizing processes.
By ensuring all countries importing steel into Europe have to pay similar amount, sustainable goals do not stop EU countries from being competitive or profitable.
Market responses
Many conference attendees felt that CBAM could help support European mills remain competitive when faced with so many economic challenges.
Some non-European exporters who were already providing CBAM certificates to buyers in Europe importing their stock, reported high levels of bureaucracy involved with submitting the correct information quarterly.
“It will help to put a fair price on the carbon emitted. Steel producers in Egypt who export to EU have already been asked to fill in necessary paperwork for CBAM. This is a very bureaucratic procedure and may become a burden in the future for producers,” a producer source from Egypt told Fastmarkets.
“CBAM will help support European mills and global targets towards becoming more sustainable,” a second producer source from Egypt said.
Skepticism
Some sources, especially in Europe, did not think CBAM would either encourage global decarbonization or significantly rebalance global markets.
CBAM has put a cost on carbon, but it is not enough to counter the other factors which have resulted in a lack of balance in the global markets, these sources said.
These factors included foreign country subsidies, lower gas and electricity costs, lower labor costs and lower or no regulations in the construction sector, the sources added.
These more skeptical market participants felt that by just putting a price on ‘carbon’, other key areas which required addressing were not being considered.
“Europe has been affected and limited by its own desire to become carbon efficient and this has been a contributing factor to Europe losing market share of steel production, weakening domestic demand and becoming uncompetitive domestically,” a German trader said.
Europe is currently trying to decarbonize, digitize and remain profitable, sources said. But, at least in the short term, the goal of decarbonizing is at odds with the goal of profitability, Fastmarkets heard.
“European producers don’t just have to deal with the carbon issue, they also have to deal with high energy costs because of high taxation on energy and renewable energy transformation and high energy costs and importing expensive raw materials and finding the money to invest in decarbonizing technology,” a producer source from Spain said.
Whereas there is a lot of pressure from every side to transition to low-carbon environment in Europe, this is not the same in non-EU countries.
In other countries, for example China and Algeria, where the steel industry is buoyed up by subsidies, carbon tariffs like CBAM will not incentivize them to decarbonize.
“China will just pay the increased costs with the massive government subsidies they receive. They will continue to emit just as much carbon and will continue to have far lower costs,” a trader at the conference said during a panel discussion.
“Even with CBAM and all countries importing into Europe having to pay for the cost of their carbon footprint, they still remain more competitive because of cheaper energy costs and cheaper labor costs,” a second producer source from Europe said.
Costs, low margins depress EU rebar market outlook
French rebar buyers anticipate no market improvement in the near term and throughout the whole of the fourth quarter, Kallanish hears.
Current market activity is characterised by a lack of momentum, shown by orders with reduced volumes.
This week at the Irepas event in Paris, various European rebar makers expressed their apprehension about diminished sales and significantly declining earnings last year. Two sources anticipated negative results for this year as well.
The forecast for rebar sales and pricing through year-end appears to be unfavourable. There are expectations mainly from buyers of a decline in prices in the upcoming months, linked with decreased domestic scrap values and the subdued performance of international markets.
In France, there was a brief period of somewhat higher sales during the summer, but there is no optimism for the future, with distributors noting that sales are still sluggish and customers are reluctant to commit to large quantities.
The overall volume performance for the year has been relatively stable, with slow purchases occurring back-to-back amid uncertainty. However, downstream financial results showed weakness, with margins facing significant pressure and profit close to zero.
Buyers insist on taking a cautious approach, and the market has only slowly resumed activity after the August break.
Rebar prices remain stable month-on-month in France, averaging at €610-620/tonne ($681-692) delivered, according to industry sources. In September, scrap prices in western Europe experienced an on-month decrease of €25-30/t, reflecting the downturn observed in the Turkish market.
The domestic construction sector is in the middle of a recession, as confirmed recently by national construction body Fédération Française du Bâtiment (FFB). However, sentiment among French construction companies improved slightly in August. According to L’Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (Insee), construction companies active in both structural works and finishings reported a slightly more positive business climate and an improved attitude towards their future (see Kallanish passim).
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