IREPAS in Athens: Markets in unknown territory
The 92nd meeting of IREPAS (the International Rebar Exporters and Producers Association) was held in Athens on April 27-29 in conjunction with the SteelOrbis Spring’25 Conference.
There were 143 representatives from 49 different producers among the 502 registered delegates from a total of 58 different countries. There were also 97 registrations representing 50 different raw material suppliers.
At the opening of the conference, Murat Cebecioglu, chairman of IREPAS, said that the global long steel products market is currently overwhelmed by a spiral of duties and trade measures and protectionism such as has never been experienced before. He stated that the recently created uncertainties in the market on top of the already existing problems, the markets are now somewhat lost.
The IREPAS chairman added that the current environment is not bright and the level of competition in the global market is very strong, being almost at maximum levels.
On the last day of the conference, producers of long steel products, as well as traders and raw material suppliers, shared the conclusions reached at their special committee meetings regarding the current situation in the markets with the general participants at the event.
Raw Material Suppliers at IREPAS: Challenging year ahead, market will be much slower in H2
Jens Björkman, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee, noted that the EU steel industry has started the year quite well, though steel production in the region was low in the first quarter. He highlighted that the new German government is expected to ease the pressure from the uncertainties on the market, which may boost steel production. Noting that the green transition in the EU seems to be postponed, indicating that there seems to be no viable transition until at least 2030, he stated that a lot of mills in the EU will start shifting from the blast furnace route to the electric arc furnace route in the next five to 10 years and there will be uneven demand for scrap until that time. Addressing the scrap export restriction plans in the EU, he stated that, as scrap demand is low in the region now, any restrictions would put pressure on the steel industry but may also lead to more bureaucratized trade between scrap generators and steelmakers.
Regarding the Trump administration’s tariff actions, the chairman of the raw material suppliers committee stated that, in the first few months this year, sales to the US were at enormous levels as a new tariff was anticipated. Noting that EU-based mills were running at high capacity to export to the US before the implementation of new measures, he said he believes that the market will be much slower in the second half of this year. He added that Trump’s second term will be much different than his first term. In addition, he expressed the belief that, despite the actions taken by the US, Canada and Mexico will not impose tax on steel exports to the US as the US is their biggest trade partner and a restriction would hurt their own industries.
Björkman stated that iron ore prices have been fluctuating at around $100/mt CFR, compared to $89/mt CFR seen in September 2024, due to higher production at the end of last year and early this year. He noted that, if China lowers steel production and the general output of iron ore increases, these two factors together will result in lower iron ore prices.
Traders at IREPAS: No reduction in US tariffs expected, trade conditions remain challenging
F. D. Baysal, the chairman of the traders committee, stated that, although the US imposing new 25 percent tariffs on imports from the countries previously exempted from the Section 232 measures seems like an advantage for the countries such as Egypt and Turkey which were already subject to 25 percent tariffs, only 18 percent of total imports into the US was from the Section 232-paying countries and 82 percent was from the exempted countries. He added that, despite the advantages some countries will gain, there will be no improvement in the market conditions given the economic uncertainties and the general market slowdown. Also, he said he believes that there will be no reduction in the US tariffs.
Looking at the EU, he said there have been some reductions in the import quota volumes, resulting in more challenging trade conditions. Considering the increased sales of wire rod and HRC over the past quarter from the ASEAN region to the EU, Mr. Baysal noted that, even though there are some restrictions on certain ASEAN countries, the EU is now more open to those countries compared to its old traditional markets given the free trade agreements between the EU and some Southeast Asian countries.
Mr Baysal added that he foresees no reduction in China’s exports and capacity utilization going forward.
Producers at IREPAS: Markets in unknown territory because of tariffs
Murat Cebecioğlu, chairman of IREPAS and also chairman of the producers committee, pointed out that the hot topic during the producers committee meeting was tariffs and their effect on business, adding that this is completely unknown territory and that nobody has any idea where things are headed at the moment, which makes it very difficult to conduct business.
He said that, as the Chinese domestic market is not doing so well, China will still be the main factor depressing prices as it is heavily dependent on exports and its prices are quite low compared to those of other exporters. He went on to say that the stimulus package is not helping much at the moment to boost to market, which is why China is selling billet to countries like Turkey and many other countries.
The IREPAS chairman noted that, as billet is a competitive alternative to scrap in terms of price, particularly Turkish mills will keep buying billet, adding that, as long as prices are at the current levels buying billets is much more profitable, even though the lead times from Asia are two to three times longer.
Commenting on the GCC shifting from being an importer to being an exporter, Mr. Cebecioğlu said that the reason they are exporting is that they have overcapacity, and are selling to the EU, especially Germany, and to North Africa and Israel. He indicated that the answer to the question on whether their exports will continue depends on how infrastructure projects will take shape in the region in the coming period and how much of that demand the local market can absorb: otherwise, they will continue to export.
German rebar prices climb further
Germany’s rebar mills have given their prices another push in April, which appears to have been accepted in the market, Kallanish notes.
Attempts to bring up base prices over recent months received limited success, not reaching the €400/tonne ($455) target until March. That mark has now been passed, owing probably to the prolonged shutdown of the liquid phase at Riva Hennigsdorf.
The mill near Berlin stopped steel production at the end of December and introduced short working hours for its staff. Production was not restarted at the end of March as originally planned, with the suspension continuing until further notice.
Buyers currently see the base price at €420/t. Adding the fixed size extra of €265, the delivered price would be at €685/t.
“With Henningsdorf out, two of the other producers were able to assert higher prices, and I believe prices are trending up further,” one manager tells Kallanish. Paradoxically, the trend could also be stopped by Riva’s German subsidiary as soon as it decides to rejoin the improved market and restart production, the manager adds.
Prices rise in Northern European rebar market; wire rod prices stable
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered Northern Europe was €640-645 ($661-666) per tonne on Wednesday, narrowing upward by €30 per tonne from €610-645 per tonne week on week.
Mills raised their rebar offer prices in Northern European after reopening following Christmas closures. The market largely accepted these price rises, Fastmarkets heard.
Meanwhile, international scrap prices edged downward on a weekly basis but increased month on month, Fastmarkets heard.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of its daily index for steel scrap, HMS 1&2 (80:20 mix), North Europe origin, cfr Turkey was $338.31 per tonne on Wednesday, down from $348.12 per tonne a week earlier and up from $325.00 per tonne a month ago.
The corresponding Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel wire rod (mesh quality), domestic, delivered Northern Europe was at €610-620 per tonne, stable week on week.
Italian rebar makers push up prices
Several Italian rebar producers are halting sales and seeking a €20/tonne ($20.8) increase for deliveries scheduled in January. Mills have already increased values this month and will continue to deliver material until the end of this week, Kallanish notes.
Current quotes from producers are positioned at €320/t base ex-works, applicable for orders delivered by the end of this month. For contracts executed in January, asking prices are set at €340-350/t base ex-works. This indicates a significant rise from the November asking price of €300/t base ex-works.
Current transactions, for December delivery, are positioned within the €300-320/t base ex-works range. A number of rebar mills are going to cease operations by the end of this week, with some having already suspended their facilities. Activity will resume on 7 January.
Current transactions are priced within the €560-580/t ex-works range, including size extras averaging approximately at €260/t. Domestic mesh contracts are at €410-420/t, excluding transportation costs – size extras are an additional €300/t, according to sources.
Natalia Capra France
Small price rises in Italian rebar market; wire rod stable despite higher mill offers
Mills increased their rebar and wire rod offer prices, but the higher wire rod prices have yet to be accepted, Fastmarkets understands – although mill sources said they were optimistic the higher levels will be implemented before Christmas closures.
In Spain, meanwhile, rebar prices remained unchanged, with market participants holding out against any higher offers.
Fastmarkets price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar) domestic, exw Italy was €570-600 ($591-612) per tonne on Wednesday up by €10-20 per tonne from €560-580 per tonne week-on-week.
The minimum level in Italy was up by €10 per tonne week on week, source said.
“The prices have increased so far this week and are still [rising],” a buyer source told Fastmarkets. “But some producers stopped production due to the high cost of electricity and scrap [and] we are closer to the Christmas holidays and, in a few days, mills will [start to] close until January.”
A second trader source said that demand was good last week and had not been so bad so far this week.
“The rebar price is now at €580-590 per tonne, but customers are still receiving material ordered last week at €560-570 per tonne,” the second trader source said.
“Maybe producers will increase prices again before the Christmas closures,” the second trader source added.
International scrap prices, meanwhile, have remained steady compared with last week, although they are down month on month because of slow steel sales, sources told Fastmarkets.
Fastmarkets’ calculation of its daily index for steel scrap, HMS 1&2 (80:20 mix), North Europe origin, cfr Turkey, was $333.00 per tonne on Wednesday, down from $336.95 per tonne a week earlier and from $361.37 per tonne in the first week of November.
Elsewhere in Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered, Spain was €580-600 per tonne on Wednesday unchanged week on week.
“The Spanish market has not changed, but we hear that German mills have increased their offer prices. Once the new levels are accepted in Northern Europe or Italy, the Spanish producers will [also] increase [their offers],” a producer source told Fastmarkets.
Southern European wire rod
Fastmarkets’ price assessment for steel wire rod (mesh quality), domestic, delivered Southern Europe, was €600-610 per tonne on Wednesday, stable week on week.
Mills increased offers by €10-20 per tonne in Southern Europe, but workable prices remained stable at €600-610 per tonne, sources told Fastmarkets.
“Mills want to increase prices but, so far, I am seeing a rolling over of November prices” a trader source told Fastmarkets. “We shall see if such increases will be achieved and, if yes, how long it will last.”
A second trader source said: “There have been pushes for increases, but no actual deals yet,” a second trader source told Fastmarkets.
And a wire rod producer source said there were reasons to be optimistic.
“We are facing a weak market, but we are seeing a willingness among customers to accept small price rises compared with November. This is probably because December is a period when it is more difficult to source supplies compared with other times of year when supplies are more abundant. So if the market continues to show positive signs, we will implement further price rises,” the source said.
Prices for Polish rebar inch lower amid poor trading
Fastmarkets’ weekly assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, cpt Poland — which has been falling since July 19 — reached 2,600-2,640 zloty ($669-679) per tonne on Friday, down by 10-20 zloty per tonne from 2,610-2,660 zloty per tonne on September 6.
A local producer offered rebar to many Polish steel traders at 2,600 zloty per tonne CPT, sources told Fastmarkets. This urged other mills in the country to adjust their offers to similar price levels.
Buyers estimated the tradeable market level at 2,600-2,640 zloty per tonne CPT, depending on tonnages.
Lower scrap prices on the Polish market were also among the reasons for the decreasing rebar prices, Fastmarkets understands.
Scrap prices in September contracts decreased by 90-110 zloty per tonne, a distributor source said.
“Consumers in Poland are aware of these developments, and when the local mills try to offer higher prices, they do not accept these offers,” the source added. “No one is buying huge volumes now due to the decreasing rebar prices.”
Competitive imports also put additional pressure on domestic prices.
German material was heard offered to Poland at €610-615 ($673-679) per tonne CPT. For deliveries close to the border with Germany, the price could drop to €605 per tonne CPT, sources told Fastmarkets.
Offers for November-delivery rebar from Ukraine were heard recently at €570 per tonne DAP border for material with 10-32 mm diameter, which nets back to €600 per tonne CPT.
According to a second distributor source, slow demand, combined with strong competition from imports, will continue to put downward pressure on Polish rebar prices.
Italian rebar producers seek increases
Italian rebar producers are looking to implement price increases of €20-30/tonne ($22.1-33.2) in an effort to halt the price decline and regain some lost margins. Increased costs of production, especially in terms of energy, have put significant pressure on their financials.
According to buyers who spoke to Kallanish, the outlook for the end of the year remains pessimistic, with ongoing low downstream orders and reduced consumption. Buyers have no confidence that the latest hike attempt will be sustained. The distribution sector is adopting a cautious approach. Sources indicate prices for domestic rebar have remained steady in comparison to last month, but a price decline is expected.
Transaction values in the domestic market last week ranged from €290-300/t base ex-works, or €550-560/t ex-works effective. This includes an average of €260/t for additional size extras. Domestic mesh is at around €400/t, excluding transportation costs.
There is an additional charge of €300/t for size extras. Mills are requesting €320-330/t ex-works for rebar. Some steelmakers temporarily halted sales last week due to uncertainty surrounding pricing decisions. The market continues to underperform, with buyers reporting an influx of much cheaper long products from Turkey.
Natalia Capra France
